The LibDems May Cease To Be

Twenty years ago, Margaret Thatcher made a speech to the Conservative Party Conference and said that the LibDems were like a dead parrot. They had ceased to be. They have met their maker. Well, she may have been slightly ahead of her time.

Today, we learn that LibDem support has collapsed. Only 54% of their 2010 voters intend to vote for them next time. 51% of LibDem voters want a Labour government next time. These figures come from a poll and research carried out by Lord Ashcroft, which have been published in today's Sunday Telegraph. Three thousand people were surveyed and eight focus groups were held.

I have long wondered what strategy the LibDems could adopt to get themselves out of this mess. I guess Nick Clegg is playing a long game and is trusting the public to give the LibDems the credit in 2015 for the success of the coalition. If indeed it does turn out to be a success. And it's a big 'if'. I hadn't expected the LibDems to crumble or split so quickly, I must admit.

It seems that the LibDems may soon be struggling for their very existence. And it may well be David Cameron who comes to their rescue and offers some sort of electoral pact. I genuinely think that is now a very real prospect, and for many Tories it will happen over their dead bodies. Meanwhile, the Labour Party is sitting back and lapping it up. Ed Miliband is criticised as a "do nothing" leader. But you have to say, if others are digging a hole quickly, what's the point of picking up another shovel to help them?

Download Lord Ashcroft's report HERE and read the Telegraph story HERE.

An Evening Out

I spent a very pleasant evening at the Imperial War Museum to mark the opening of the new Lord Ashcroft gallery, which contains more than 260 Victoria and George Crosses. It really is a truly amazing collection and opens for public view tomorrow. Michael made a very moving speech about what inspired him to start his collection and then spoke the about courage, valour and gallantry displayed by those who have been awarded VCs and GCs. Michael Ashcroft's new book, out next week can be ordered HERE. And do go to the IWM to see the Ashcroft Gallery. But take some tissues. Some bits can make you very emotional.

A funny thing happened on the way back. We got into a cab and the cab driver said, "You're on the radio aren't you, I recognise your voice. Don't tell me, don't tell me ... you're that Anthony Davis on LBC aren't you?" "Right station, wrong presenter,"I replied. "I definitely know your voice. I know. You're Nick Abbott." "Nope." "Clive Bull?" I then put him out of his misery. "Oh, I like you, you're alright!" Alright??? Is that all? Lol.

On the way home I listened to Mehdi Hasan doing my show. A very odd experience. It's only the second time I have had a night off in two months and I really missed my show. I guess that's good. The question is, did my audience miss me?! I'll be back on tomorrow night.

Minority Verdict: Ashcroft Publishes Analysis of 2010 Election

Tomorrow, my company Biteback publishes Lord Ashcroft's follow up to Smell the Coffee, his book about the 2005 election campaign. The new book is called MINORITY VERDICT: THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY, THE VOTERS & THE 2010 GENERAL ELECTION and can be pre-ordered HERE. Andrew Alderson has the story in today's Sunday Telegraph HERE together with an interview with Lord A HERE.

Lord Ashcroft, the controversial billionaire Tory donor, has written a tough
public critique of what he sees as the costly flaws in the Conservative Party's
election campaign. He informed David Cameron, the Prime Minister, on Friday
night that he will resign as Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party at its
board meeting in eight days' time.

On Monday Lord Ashcroft will publish his verdict on the party's failure to win an overall majority in the May general election. In his analysis, the Tory life peer criticises the party for:

* Failing to get its "message" and "brand" across to the voters.

* Relentless counterproductive attacks on the Labour Party and Gordon
Brown.

* Agreeing to a televised debate of political leaders which enabled the Liberal Democrats to seize the "real change" initiative.

The departure of the Tory peer, who was a tax exile in Belize for many years before
returning earlier this year to live and pay income tax on his worldwide earnings
in Britain, will leave a hole in the party's structure because he has
masterminded the party's marginal seats campaign and its internal polling.

Lord Ashcroft indicated before the election that he would stand down as
Deputy Chairman, the role he has held since 2005, but his resignation will now
end growing speculation over the past month that he would retain a prominent
official role with the party.

In Lord Ashcroft's assessment of the election campaign, seen exclusively by The Sunday Telegraph, he highlights what he believes were the Conservative Party's tactical errors and why it failed to win the majority that many were predicting.

This meant the party had to form a Coalition Government with the Liberal Democrats. He writes that in 2008 and 2009 nearly all published polls showed a "double-digit" – 10 per cent or more – Conservative lead.

"Why did these figures not translate into a thumping majority? The key lies in the gap between the change people wanted and the change people thought we were offering.

"Going into the election, many voters had little clear idea of what we stood for or what we intended to do in government.

"At a national level, too much of our message was focused on unnecessary and counterproductive attacks on Gordon Brown and Labour, which meant that voters were not clear about our own plans.

"We did not make as much progress as we should have done in transforming the party's brand, and in reassuring former Labour voters that we had changed and were on their side.

"This in turn gave Labour's scare campaigns about Conservative plans
more resonance than they would otherwise have had, and meant that, for many,
voting Conservative was a much harder decision than it might have been."

The Tory peer believes the analysis is constructive criticism and many
in the party will be relieved that his verdict on the election campaign is not
as damning as some political insiders have been predicting.

Lord Ashcroft, 64, goes out of his way to praise Mr Cameron's personal contribution
to the election campaign and says the party should feel "proud" of the result.

He makes his comments in the executive summary for his 133-page book:
Minority Verdict: The Conservative Party, the voters and the 2010 election,
which will be published tomorrow.

The Tory peer, who has donated around £15 million to the party over the past two decades, told The Sunday Telegraph: "There has been speculation as to my view of the party's performance in the election, and of David Cameron's subsequent decision to forge a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

"By putting an end to speculation, Minority Verdict sets the record straight.

"This is a record of what I really thought at the time, and what I think now. And if there is to be a public debate about this subject, Minority Verdict represents my first and only contribution to it.

"I do not intend to comment beyond what is contained in these pages."

However, Lord Ashcroft clearly feels frustrated that the party's leadership did not offer him greater public support in March of this year when he was forced to admit – in the run-up to the May election – that he had enjoyed the status of a "non-dom" – and had not been paying income tax on his worldwide earnings.

Critics tried to portray him as dishonourable and claimed he had reneged on an earlier pledge.

In his interview, Lord Ashcroft said: "I think they could have mounted a more spirited defence of the situation. It did prove to me that the Labour Party attack team was much more effective than the Conservative Party defence team.

"The negotiations [in 2000] with the [Labour] Government for me to join the House of Lords did not include any commitment on my part to be taxed on my worldwide income."

He made it clear that he will not be donating as much money to the party as he has done in the past.

"The party is actually in pretty good shape financially, which is a great credit to Michael Spencer [the outgoing treasurer] and his team.

"They raised even more money than we were allowed to spend in the election campaign, so I'm not sure they need me for now," he said.

The peer also believes that – in the long run – his close friend William Hague, the
Shadow Foreign Secretary and former party leader, will pursue an alternative
career.

"I think he will make a future career out of politics – and it will be a poorer place without him," he said.

Read the full article HERE. Download a PDF of the Executive Summary HERE.

For those interested in the Ashcroft VC Collection, it goes on public view at the Imperial War Museum from 12 November. A new website has been launched HERE.

Ashcroft Research Shows Tories Could Do Better Under AV - And LibDems Worse

I think after reading THIS, our new friends in the Liberal Democrats might be reconsidering their blind support for the Alternative Vote system. Michael Ashcroft has commissioned some research which shows that a dramatic decline in support for the LibDems (as evidenced in recent opinion polls) could lead to a large rise in the number of seats won by the Conservatives.

There has been a widespread assumption that the Conservatives have nothing to gain from electoral reform, and the work that has been done so far – such as the YouGov poll for the Spectator earlier this month – has indeed suggested that the Tories would be the biggest net losers when comparing A.V. with First Past The Post (FPTP).

As ever, though, national polls can only tell us so much – it would be in the marginal seats that A.V. would make a decisive difference. Would voters in these seats behave differently under the two systems? And would the effect be different depending which parties were in contention? A newly commissioned 6,000-sample poll helps to shed some light on the debate.

1,500 people were interviewed in each of four clusters of target seats: the 50 most marginal Labour-held seats with the Conservatives in second place; the 50 most marginal Conservative-held seats with Labour in second place; the 25 most marginal Liberal Democrat-held seats where the Conservatives are second; and the 25 most marginal Conservative seats where the Lib Dems are second.

The findings are striking. Under a FPTP election, Labour would gain 28 of the seats in which it is currently in second place to the Conservatives. Although the Conservative vote in these seats was only fractionally down since the general election, a 4-point drop in the Liberal Democrat share exclusively benefited Labour. In the 25 Liberal Democrat-held seats, though, the collapse in the Lib Dem vote was much more dramatic: the party was down 15 points from its general election position. In this scenario, the Conservatives would win all of these seats plus a further five – more than compensating for its losses on the Labour battleground.

Under A.V. the swings were less dramatic but the effect was no less interesting. In Con-Lab marginals, while Labour voters were much more likely to give their second preference to the Lib Dems than to the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats were more likely to give their second preferences to the Tories than Labour – albeit by a smaller margin. Labour would gain 16 Conservative seats under this system. In the Liberal Democrat-Conservative battleground, although the Lib Dems were the significant net beneficiaries of second and third preferences, they were so far behind on first preferences that the effect of the transfers was to narrow the Tory lead, not eliminate it. In this scenario the Conservatives would gain 19 of Lib Dem seats in which they are in second place – leaving them three seats up on the deal, compared to only two under FPTP. This gives the rather counterintuitive result that in an election now, the Conservatives could do as well, and possibly better, under A.V. than under FPTP.

There will be further complicating factors, of course. We don’t yet know for sure the impact of the reduction in the number of constituencies – the Conservatives should be the net beneficiaries, but the parties will fight over every boundary line; until the new map is drawn we won’t know how many seats will change hands for a given swing. It is also possible that, under A.V., swings could start to vary between seats even more than was the case on 6 May, if voters start to set even more store by the merits of individual candidates when allocating their preferences. And fairly small shifts in headline voting intention (particularly an increase in support for the Liberal Democrats) could change the result under A.V. significantly, given their advantage in second and third preferences.

We took the opportunity to gauge the opinion of the marginals more widely. Not surprisingly, the coalition’s performance was more highly rated in the Conservative-Liberal Democrat battleground than where Labour are strong contenders, though a clear majority thought the new government was doing well overall – indeed nearly a quarter admitted to thinking it was doing better than they expected. However, only one in ten of those who did not vote Conservative or Liberal Democrat on 6 May said they were now more likely to vote for either party because of the way they have conducted themselves since the election.

But more alarm bells should ring for the LibDems over another finding...

Voters in these seats were evenly divided as to whether the coalition represents “the beginning of a new type of politics”, though small majorities thought so on the Conservative-Liberal Democrat battleground. Just under half thought the way David Cameron and the Conservatives had behaved since the election “shows that the Conservative Party really has changed for the better”.

Significantly, even in the Liberal Democrat-held seats, less than a quarter of voters thought the Lib Dems were having a significant impact on the coalition government’s agenda. Most thought the government’s agenda is very similar or the same as what they would see if the Conservatives were governing alone.

To read the full report (it's 8 pages), click HERE.

Imperial War Museum To Get New VC Gallery

As many readers know, Michael Ashcroft is one of the investors in TOTAL POLITICS. He gets a lot of flak for his political activities and even, unbelievably, for the fact that he is a collector of Victoria Crosses. A couple of years ago I advised him on the publishing of his book VICTORIA CROSS HEROES, which became a best seller.

Perhaps his detractors might like to pause today when they read in today's papers that he is donating £5 million to the Imperial War Museum to house a new gallery to house not only his own collection of 152 VCs, but also the 50 VCs and 29 George Cross medals already owned by the museum.

Lord Ashcroft's Campaign to Save the Caribbean Whales

This advert is part of the campaign by Lord Ashcroft against whaling in the Caribbean, which I mentioned HERE last week.



I did a 7 minute interview with Lord Ashcroft today, in which he explains the motives behind his campaign, which you can view HERE.

You can find out more about the campaign at the campaign website HERE.

Lord Ashcroft, Eco Warrior

Earlier this evening I was flicking through The Times and comes across THIS feature on Michael Ashcroft's latest venture - saving whales. He wants to persuade several eastern Caribbean nations to withdraw their support for whaling.

The island nations — Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts and Nevis,
St Lucia and St Vincent and The Grenadines, which between them have a population
of 560,000 — receive a total of $16 million (£8 million) a year in fisheries aid
from Japan. In return, they have consistently voted with Japan and its principal
ally Norway at the International Whaling Commission (IWC) to overturn the 1986
moratorium on commercial whaling. With the next IWC convention due to be held in
Anchorage, Alaska, next month, Lord Ashcroft has devised and funded a television
advertising campaign — which will break in these six nations this week — to
highlight a pro-whaling stance of which he believes the majority of their peoples are unaware and which has never been subjected to vigorous public debate.

I ran into Lord A at a dinner this evening and he was quick to tell me that the campaign is launching on Monday with a TV ad. I think I'd better get him on 18 Doughty Street for an interview. The Times article continues...

Lord Ashcroft’s environmental stance might appear to sit neatly alongside a
Conservative Party whose slogan for next month’s council elections is “Vote
Blue, Go Green”. A little too neat? “This has been going on for longer than that
campaign has,” he retorts. “And I’m not putting myself forward as an
environmentalist. I just like whales.”