The Real SNP Agenda

I'm getting rather sick of listening to Alex Salmond's bleatings about how much he wants a hung Parliament. Could it be because he and his Welsh colleagues will then be in an ideal position to bribe a new government to send yet more English tax monies north and west?

I may not be able to make many accurate predictions about the consequences of this election result, but I will make one. An English Parliament will be firmly on the political agenda, and this time the main parties won't be able to ignore it.

Alex Salmond & Margaret Thatcher: The Truth

I hadn't quite realised what a stink my interview with Alex Salmond had caused in Scotland until I heard that the First Minister himself had called a phone in on BBC Radio Scotland to clarify his remarks. You can listen to it HERE. In the interview with me he said...

ID: Ten years ago, the Conservatives were seen as a terrible enemy by the SNP, and they saw you as very left-wing. It seems to me that you have tried to change that, and create a big tent for the SNP.
AS: I suppose I have tried to bring the SNP into the mainstream of Scotland. We have a very competitive economic agenda. Many business people have warmed towards the SNP. We need a competitive edge, a competitive advantage - get on with it, get things done, speed up decision making, reduce bureaucracy. The SNP has a strong social conscience, which is very Scottish in itself. One of the reasons Scotland didn't take to Lady Thatcher was because of that. We didn't mind the economic side so much. But we didn't like the social side at all.
ID: Doesn't that illustrate the problem, that Scotland is seen as having quite a big public sector and, as the country of Adam Smith, it is no longer seen as the country of enterprise?
AS: I think that betrays Adam Smith. He was not just a friend of economics. He was a moral philosopher. Margaret Thatcher could have only ever read the Penguin edition of Wealth of Nations and she missed out the moral sentiments. I would absolutely defend the reputation of Adam Smith against the Adam Smith Institute. I said to Eamonn Butler [Deputy Director of the ASI], if Adam Smith could sue, you'd be in real trouble.

Labour has seized on the highlighted passage and called on Alex Salmond to apologise. It is astonishing that even eighteen years after she left office Margaret Thatcher still dominates much of our political discourse. Quite how Labour has managed to spin Salmond's remarks about Thatcher in the way that it has is quite astonishing - but the Scottish media has such a Labour bias it makes English newspapers look positively balanced by comparison. Every single Scottish media outlet is biased against the SNP. A point I made in an unpublished part of the interview...

ID It must be a relief to have got through the first year with a reputation for competence.
AS It was a desirable objective. As you probably have noticed, I am not short of confidence, so relief is the wrong phrase, but I was determined that that should be done. So much so that I banned their holidays last Summer and said look, you’re Cabinet Ministers, make your mark. And they did.
ID My point is that the Scottish media is against the SNP and apart from the Labour Party most other people in politics have said quite nice things about you.
AS If you get complimented by your critics then that is better than just being complimented by your friends.

Anyone who seriously thinks that Alex Salmond has turned into an admirer of Margaret Thatcher must want their heads read. As he has been quick to point out, it was Gordon Brown who invited her to Number Ten, so it’s a bit rich for Labour to make hay with his remarks!

When one does an In Conversation interview like this, it has to be edited. The original transcript ran to 6,500 words, whereas the version which appeared in the magazine was less than half that. I have just gone back and checked against the original transcript of the conversation and was relieved to find it is an entirely accurate report of what Alex said. Here, just for the record is the unedited version...

ID I perceive that the SNP has changed a lot in the last ten years. The Conservatives were seen as a terrible enemy by you and the SNP was seen to be a very left wing party by the Conservatives. It seems to me that you have copied Bill Clinton – I’ll be careful where I go with this analogy – and tried to create a big tent for the SNP, so you can attract ex Conservative voters who had previously felt put off by some of the more left wing ideas of the SNP.
AS I suppose I have tried to bring the SNP into the mainstream of Scotland. We have a very competitive economic agenda. Many businesspeople have warmed towards the SNP. We need a competitive edge, a competitive advantage. That side of SNP politics – get on with it, get things done, speed up decision making, reduce bureaucracy. The SNP has a strong, beating social conscience, which is very Scottish in itself. One of the reasons Scotland didn’t take to Lady Thatcher was because of that. It didn’t mind the economic side so much. But we didn’t like the social side at all. One of the most famous phrases in Scottish history is the ‘Community of the realm’ – I used it earlier. This idea that there is a community of interest stretching across the population. It’s a very Scottish concept and Scotland doesn’t like people who regale against it.
ID Doesn’t that illustrate the problem that Scotland is seen as having quite a big public sector, a bit too much of the Nanny State, and as the country of Adam Smith it is no longer seen as the country of enterprise. Or am I betraying English prejudices by even daring to suggest such a thing?
AS I think you are betraying Adam Smith. He was not just a friend of economics. He was a moral philosopher. Margaret Thatcher had only ever read the Penguin edition of Wealth of Nations and she missed out the moral sentiments. I would absolutely defend the reputation of Adam Smith against the Adam Smith Institute.
ID You’re a better man than I am.
AS I said to Eamonn Butler [Deputy Director of the ASI], if Adam Smith could sue, you’d be in real trouble.

You can read the whole interview HERE.

Ways of Driving Traffic to Paul Waugh's Blog: No 94

Paul Waugh of the Evening Standard (who writes an excellent blog) will have caused a few male blood pressures to raise this morning, not to mention the hackles of a few feminists. He's written about an interview Total Politics has done in next month's issue (out tomorrow) with Boris Johnson, in which he reveals that he prefers blondes. Waugh has illustrated his story on this blog with a picture of Cheryl Tiegs with ... well, there's no other way of putting this ... her tits out.

I just emailed him to say I wonder how he gets away with it. If I put that picture on here I would be kicked from pillar to post. Or perhaps not...

Just in case you think interviewer James Silver was only interested in talking to Boris about fluff, let me dispell that. He also called Ken Livingstone's administration "pretty sleazy" and warned that criminal prosecutions in connection with misuse of public funds are "almost certain". More HERE. The full interview will be available from tomorrow on the TP website.

UPDATE: The Scotsman also has a long piece about an interview I have done with Alex Salmond. Thankfully Salmond doesn't get his tits out in the interview.

Why Alex Salmond is Smiling Today

It is strongly rumoured that one of the DUP's conditions for voting with the government on 42 days was that the revenues from the sale of disused army bases and barracks in Northern Ireland would go to Stormont, rather than the Treasury, as would be normal in these circumstances.

If true, Brown may have made a very big rod for his own back. My SNP friends are already licking their lips in anticipation of a precedent now having been set. The precedent is that that revenues from UK assets in a devolved territory are the property of that devolved government, not Westminster. This means Alex Salmond is sitting on a potential goldmine at Faslane (one of the world's very few facilities dedicated to the servicing and upkeep of nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarines - which could mean an independent Scotland using the facilities to service American, English or French subs...for a price, of course) and more importantly...oil.

Oops.

Labour's Desperation on Scottish Independence

Wendy Alexander's decision to back an Independence referendum for Scotland isn't just one of the biggest political U Turns in history, it's the last desperate act of a desperate leader of a desperate party. 'Bring it on' she says, which, when translated, means 'Let's hold it now rather than in 2010 because I can't stand up to Alex Salmond in a two year long debate'.

Presumably if all the other parties combined against the SNP Wendy could force her wish. Let's hope the Scottish Tories and LibDems have more sense than to fall into Wendy's little flytrap.

I suppose that Alex Salmond could in theory also do a U Turn and decide to hold a referendum later in the year on the basis that he and his administration is never likely to be more popular than they are now.



A difficult call, but I expect him to stick to his guns.

Wendy Alexander Stumped for a Question

At today's First Minister's Questions in the Scottish Parliament, Wendy Alexander asked the first 2 of her 3 questions (getting swatted by Alex Salmond as usual), then announced that "she had no more questions for the First Minister".

Puzzled looks and gasps on all sides. Alex Salmond got up to reply, but the Presiding Officer ruled that since there wasn't a question there was no need for a reply. Since Wendy is such a friend of Gordon Brown could it be that the line from Washington went down and she didn't know what to say?

A Conservative/SNP Pact in Westminster is no Longer a Fantasy

Alex Salmond is fast developing a reputation as a political colossus. North of the border he's single-handedly masterminded the defeat of the Labour Party and rubbed their noses into the dirt. The Scottish Labour Party is in turmoil. They have a leader whose popularity (if that's the right word) is 75 points behind Alex Salmond, and after nearly a year in power, the SNP is becoming more popular by the month. Yesterday's MRUK Cello poll for the Scottish Sunday Times showed the SNP with a healthy 8 point lead over Labour and six points up on the previous poll. If the Scottish elections were re-run now the SNP would be on 57 seats and Labour on 44.

The SNP has now extracted from the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times (the one showing the Tories 16 points ahead) data which shows that for a Westminster election the SNP is 7 points ahead of Labour and 19 points up on the 2005 General Election. This would give them 27 seats and give Labour a heart attack. It would also mean that the SNP become key players in a hung Parliament, giving the Conservatives a second option for coalition partners.

This would have been unthinkable even a year ago, yet in Scotland there is a growing respect between the SNP and the Conservatives, and this is being reflected in Westminster too. There is growing friendly banter between leading Tories and the SNP's small but perfectly formed band of Westminster MPs.

The SNP no longer regards the Tories as the devil incarnate, but any formal coalition is currently still an impossibility under the SNP constitution, I believe. Certain elements of the SNP believe this to be outdated, but a formal move to amend the constitution would be highly unlikely.

So what short term implications does all this have? Firstly, Labour will make no headway north of the border unless the hapless Wendy Alexander is ditched. Secondly, Gordon Brown's refusal to 'do business' with Alex Salmond is playing right into the SNP's hands. They have become the voice of sweet reason, while Brown looks bitter and twisted. No change there then.

If there were shares in Alex Salmond you'd be buying them now. As a Labour MP said to me today: "There's only one way to stop Alec Salmond in his tracks and that's assassination". He was joking. I think.

28 Days Later: Why the SNP Should Wait

Under the Scottish electoral system if the Scottish Parliament has not elected a First Minister within 28 days of an election, it's back to the drawing board and a second election has to be held. At the moment it looks improbable that Alex Salmond and the SNP will be able to put together any form of meaningful coalition now that the LibDems have snubbed them.

There are two ways of looking at this from the SNP's viewpoint. You could take the view that in any rerun they would get more votes and more seats, making their bargaining position that much stronger, or you could take the view that if the rerun election takes place as Gordon Brown takes over at Number Ten the Labour Party would do better.

I take the first view. If the SNP won a second election they would be in a far stronger position. I would expect the LibDems and the Conservatives to show a drop in support and seats. It was quite clear that many Conservatives lent their votes to the SNP last Thursday. In several of the constituency seats the rise in the level of support for the SNP was exactly matched by a fall in the Tory vote. That trend could well be extended in any second election. As an aside, this electoral trend shows that there is still a core Tory vote in Scotland, which is somewhat higher than that shown by the results.

So if I were Alex Salmond, I would be distinctly unconcerned by the lack of progress in forming a government. I'd bide my time, make the other parties look unreasonable, and then 28 days later, ask the Scottish people what they think.