Who's the 'Logical' Next Speaker?

Focus is now beginning to focus again on the race for the Speakership. Several new candidates (one or two of them rather surprising) have declared that they will stand. The declared runners and riders so far are...

Margaret Beckett
John Bercow
Sir Patrick Cormack
Sir Alan Haselhurst
Sir George Young
Parmjit Dhanda
Sir Alan Beith
Sir Michael Lord
Sir Menzies Campbell
Ann Widdecombe
Frank Field
Richard Shepherd

I tempted to add, Uncle Tom Cobley and all. I know politics isn't logical, but if you look at this race logically, we should automatically dismiss any candidate would couldn't command support across the House. The office of Speaker should command automatic respect, but several of the candidates would be so controversial that they would undermine it. So using this criteria, we should eject both Frank Field and John Bercow from the field.

Logic would also determine that if a reform agenda is to be carried through, MPs who are standing down at the next election are also not appropriate. I'm sad to say it, but that means goodbye Miss Widdecombe. So that leaves nine, six of whom are Knights of the Realm. Logic should also dictate that it's the Tories' turn, or at least the turn of the Opposition. So out go Ma Beckett and Parmjit Dhanda. Logic further tells me that Labour MPs in particular are unlikely to support a LibDem. They seem to hate the LibDems more than they hate Tories, especially as the more tribal ones blame the LibDems for the overthrow of Michael Martin. So, exit Sir Ming and Sir Alan.

Which leaves us with Richard Shepherd, Sir Patrick Cormack, Sir Alan Haselhurst, Sir Michael Lord and Sir George Young. I think Sir George Young would be an excellent Speaker but I just cannot believe that the House of Commons will stomach an Old Etonian Mayor of London, an Old Etionian PM and an Old Etonian Speaker. I'm not being Etonian-ist, but what would that say about our politics?

So logic tells me that the race is between Sir Patrick Cormack, Sir Alan Haselhurst and Richard Shepherd. But logic also tells me that Sir Patrick and Richard Shepherd may well fall by the wayside in the early votes.

So from all that you would deduce that I am tipping Sir Alan Haselhurst as the "logical" choice. That's as maybe, but as all know, logic actually plays little role in electoral reality. All of which goes to show that, frankly, the whole race is up for grabs. There are three sets of hustings next week organised by Channel 4, the House Magazine and the Hansard Society. I suspect they may be key events in helping MPs make up their minds.

The betting markets are still showing odds heavily in favour of John Bercow, although Margaret Beckett's surprising entry as second favourite might hurt his chances a bit. I have still yet to identify a single Tory MP, other than Julian Lewis, who is supporting Bercow. Labour MPs who support Bercow for reasons of mischief making would do well to think again. I repeat: the Speaker should command support across the whole House. Neither Bercow nor Field can do that.

Isn't it great that we have an election where absolutely no one can be even 50% certain of the result?