So, let's indulge in a little game of prediction related to tonight's European election results. Frankly, I haven't a clue what will happen, but here's my prediction...
Conservative 30%
Labour 18%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 18%
BNP 4%
Green 8%
Others 7%
Give your own predictions in the comments and we'll see who's closest!
Iain, are you talking nationaly, including Scotland and Wales? I presume yes?
ReplyDeleteLabour to come 4th with about 15%, UKIP 2nd with 18-20% and the LD's on 16-18%
ReplyDeleteConservative 27%
ReplyDeleteLabour 16%
LibDem 18%
UKIP 19%
BNP 5%
Green 8%
Others 7%
Just can't see us getting above high 20s.
Could it be? Conservative voters about to save Gordon Brown's neck?
ReplyDeleteConservative 28%
Labour 16
LibDem 17%
UKIP 20%
BNP 3%
Green 7%
Others 9%
I admire your prediction that the BNP vote will be even lower than last time but I think they're more likely to get around 8-10% and win at least 3 seats unfortunately, including your interviewee Simon Darby in the West Midlands.
ReplyDeleteConservative 27%
ReplyDeleteLabour 16%
LibDem 16%
UKIP 20%
BNP 8%
Green 8%
Others 5%
Hmm...
ReplyDeleteConservative 27%
LibDem 21%
UKIP 15%
Labour 15%
Green 6%
BNP 3%
Others 13%
I'm based in the South West, but we reckon we saw a large number of minor party votes in the Euro election as all the papers were being unfolded and separated at the local count.
BNP at 4 or 5%?! Some of you really are living in a fantasy world.
ReplyDeleteAll together now: put your fingers in your eyes, close your eyes and sing "la la la la la la la"
They'll get 2 seats, possibly even 3.
Places:
ReplyDelete1) Conservative
2) UKIP
3) Labour
4) Lib Dems
5) Greens
6) BNP (win 2 or 3 seats)
7) Others
Iain,
ReplyDeleteBad news for your prediction. ComRes, a polling company I really like, says the following in seats not percentages:
Con 19
Lab 17
Green 11
UKIP 11
Lib Dem 8
SNP 2
PC 1
CON 32%
ReplyDeleteLAB 16%
LD 18%
UKIP 17%
Green 8%
BNP 4%
Tory 27%
ReplyDeleteLab 17%
Libs 19%
UKIP 19%
BNP 6%
Greens 5%
Others 7%
Do we get a blue peter badge?
Conservative 29%
ReplyDeleteLabour 16%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 19%
BNP 5%
Green 9%
Others 7%
Nationally
ReplyDeleteConservative 30%
Labour 17%
LibDem 17%
UKIP 18%
BNP 6%
Green 6%
Others 6%
I'm not calling Scotland or Wales in detail.
If Gordon Brown was reading out the title of this blogpost in a speech, do you think he would say what I think he would say?! do you think you could slip it in by some means......
ReplyDeleteConservative 32%
ReplyDeleteLabour 17%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 19%
BNP 4%
Green 8%
Others 7%
I think everyone is underestimating the UKIP tory protest vote. I think we've haemorrhaged far more voted to them than people seem to think!
ReplyDeleteMichael Brown has just admitted that he voted UKIP but we can't expel him as he's not a member!
ReplyDeleteConservative 34%
ReplyDeleteLabour 14%
LibDem 16%
UKIP 22%
BNP 7%
Others 7%
Con and Lab both too high.
ReplyDeleteIf the results haven't been fiddled with by Jonah's lot, I reckon your figures are sound, Iain.
ReplyDeleteConservative: 30%
ReplyDeleteLabour: 16%
Liberal Democrats: 14%
UKIP: 20%
BNP: 8%
Green: 4%
Others: 8%
Conservative 32%
ReplyDeleteLabour 14%
LibDem 16%
UKIP 21%
BNP 3.5%
Green 8%
Others 5.5%
Conservative 32%
ReplyDeleteLabour 14%
LibDem 16%
UKIP 21%
BNP 3.5%
Green 8%
Others 5.5%
Some of you people are deluded if you think that the Tories are going to push past 30% and the BNP are going to receive less of the vote than they did in 2004 (4.9%)
ReplyDeleteLet's see
ReplyDeleteBNP 10%
Others 15%
Conservative 30%
UKIP 25%
Labour 10%
LibDem 15%
Green 5%
Though I have a feeling the Greens might do better than I predict, here, at the expense of the LibDems...
And meanwhile
Gordon and Sarah booed by crowds, no star chamber for Brown, Brown's Supporters act like clowns and Alan 'the postman always knifes twice' Johnson put the knife in up to the hilt
Conservative 30%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 22%
Lib Dem 20%
Labour 18%
Fascists 5%
Green 4%
Other 1%
Looks reasonable... The key is will UKIP beat Labour and certainly at my polling station those I spoke to who would 'normally' have voted Labour, switched UKIP for EU elections... But the main event is a general election and what is translated into a general election from the current dynamics illustrated in the results from Local & EU elections.... I have published a spreadsheet (beta) which allows you to play...
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/qkrkxv
In a close contest I would emphasise that critically how the Conservative vote plays in current Lib Dem seats where the Conservatives were the runners up at the last election will be very important to secure a working majority. I will introduce this to the model in the near future.
Have fun...
Conservative 30%
ReplyDeleteLabour 14%
LibDem 14%
UKIP 22%
BNP 9%
Green 4%
Others 7%
I'm not going to predictr percentages, but these are the seat predictions I made on my own blog on Thursday:
ReplyDeleteConservative: 21 seats
UKIP: 15
Lib Dem: 14
Labour: 12
Green: 5
SNP: 2
Sinn Fein: 1
DUP: 1
TUV: 1
In retrospect I'd reduce the Conservative and UKIP totals by one each and add Plaid Cymru and BNP to the list.
Cons 29%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 19%
LibDem 15%
Lab 13%
Greens 10%
BNP 4%
A very rough analysis of the KCC Council results seems to suggest that UKIP are mostly taking votes from the Europhants. There seems to be a trend of eurosceptism in the Electorate. It'll be interesting to total eurosceptic votes v europhantic votes.
The best criticism of Brown is to ask him - how much money has he raised for his sons cystic fibrosis charity. I'm not aware he has. Surely his first responsibility is to find a cure for his sons fatal disease. A man with a sn with an incurable disease who is morally driven will want to do a reasonable amount for his son. I say this because I did it and I don't see him doing it.
ReplyDeleteSF 33%
ReplyDeleteDUP 25%
Con/UP 20%
SDLP 11%
TUV 7%
Alliance 3%
Greens1%
Nigel Predicts:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYuUqxyLNQ0
Conservatives a little higher, Labour a little lower UKIP about right , BNP higher ,Green s right snd others higher
ReplyDeleteSadlty I am well over 100% , perhaps you were right the first time
Conservative: 28%
ReplyDeleteLabour: 10%
Lib Dem: 14%
UKIP: 20%
Green: 8%
BNP: 10%
Others: 10%
This is my gut feeling. I could imagine UKIP achieving more at the expense of the Lib Dem Party and BNP though.
Iain..
ReplyDeleteConservative 30%
Labour 18%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 18%
BNP 4%
Green 8%
Others 7%
..............
If your right and i hope your not then Labour will claim this as a victory because they will turn round and say everyone had us coming in 3rd or 4th.
They even said they did better than the Conservatives in the local elections because they went down by 1% to the Conservatives 6%.
Labour can not and will not admit defeat.
UKIP 25%
ReplyDeleteCon 24%
LibDem 15%
Lab 13%
Green 10%
BNP 9%
think of it, if Cameron represented the feelings of the electorate it could be
Con 49%..... at least.
Hey Iian what would it have looked like if The votes were cast now ?
ReplyDeleteConservative 25%
ReplyDeleteLabour 17%
LibDem 17%
UKIP 21%
BNP 8%
Green 6%
Others 6%
UKIP - 27%
ReplyDeleteConservatives - 25%
Liberals - 13%
Labour - 12%
Green - 10%
BNP - 6%
Others - 4%
My maths is terrible but I have a feeling Farage has played a blinder. Don't like the man but he is a good campaigner.
Conservative 25%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 19%
LibDem 18%
Labour 15%
BNP 9%
Green 8%
Others 7%
Conservative 27%
ReplyDeleteLabour 16%
LibDem 18%
UKIP 19%
BNP 6%
Green 11%
Others 3%
You heard it here first
Conservative - 26%
ReplyDeleteUKIP - 20%
Liberal Democrats - 19%
Labour - 16%
Green - 7%
BNP - 6%
Other- 6%
I suppose the only prediction I’m really going for is that 2nd place is between the LibDems and UKIP.
ReplyDeleteConservative 27%
LibDem 20%
UKIP 20%
Labour 18%
Green 6%
BNP 5%
Others 4%
As is:
ReplyDeleteConservative 27%
Labour 15%
LibDem 18%
UKIP 20%
BNP 5%
Green 8%
Others 7%
If the Tories had given a firm message on the EU referendum:
Conservative 48%
Labour 15%
LibDem 18%
UKIP 5%
BNP 2%
Green 7%
Others 5%
Irrelevant, they were illegal.
ReplyDeleteConservative 28%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 18%
Libdem 17%
Labour 16%
Green 8%
BNP 5%
Others 7%
i voted UKIP because the expenses in EUROPE are an out-rage.saw you can claim 400k without a receipt--pmsl.
also im in scotland and the media puts across how we all love europe up here.even if UKIP scotland doesnt get enough votes--i just wanted to show how unhappy i am.
i listened too your coverage on-line iain friday---excellent---put bbc others to shame.
enjoy tonight everyone
A friend of mine, at a count in Bedfordshire, predicted Labour to get 9%! Unscientific, and unlikely to be the overall result, however hilarious that prospect might be. So I'll go for Conservative 30, Lib Dems 23, UKIP 21, Labour 16, BNP 7% (more's the pity), Others 3%...
ReplyDeleteGood game - good game:)
ReplyDeleteConservative 28%
Labour 17%
LibDem 18%
UKIP 19%
BNP 5%
Green 6%
Others 7%
C = 30%
ReplyDeleteLAB =16%
LD = 12%
UKIP = 14%
From TC
In Wales:
ReplyDeletePlaid 27%
Tories 21%
UKIP 17%
Lab 15%
LIb Dem 13%
BNP 6%
One seat each for the top four.
Tory 24
ReplyDeleteUKIP 21
Lab 18
Lib 18
BNP 7
Green 6
Others 6
Seats
Tory 23
Lab 13
UKIP 12
Lib 10
BNP 4
Green 3
SNP 2
PC 2
SF 1
SDLP 1
DUP 1
Esplanader
Con 27 UKIP 19 Lab 17 LD 15 Green 7 BNP 5 Oth 10
ReplyDeleteMelvin Cragsbury @ 11.01
ReplyDeleteWhat the same ComRes that put out a rigged poll on Tuesday saying Conservatives were down to 30% in a national election? ComRes are discredited. You should read PoliticalBetting on the subject.
Conservative 28%
ReplyDeleteLabour 18%
LibDem 18%
UKIP 15%
BNP 5%
Green 9%
Others 7%
I'm not minded to predict percentages - that way lies retardation and fail.
ReplyDeleteI will predict them in order, though:
1. Tories
2. Lib Dem
3. UKIP
4. Labour
5. Green
6. BNP
In Scotland:
1. SNP
2. Conservative
3. Labour
4. Lib Dem
5. Green
Yes, I'm predicting a major Tory resurgence in North Britain.
I can't predict - but I noticed that William Hague was very careful to play down expectations on the AM Show this morning. It's clear the BBC are going to go in hard on any sign of Conservative weakness to cover up the Labour crash.
ReplyDeleteWe've already seen the spin in action with the BBCs announcement at every opportunity that the Conservatives took a 38% share of the vote at the locals. The BBC have not explained that this is a projected share of the national vote worked out from a model yet to be understood by anyone. I'm sure most people do not understand that this figure is not raw data.
Labour MP Nick Palmer on PoliticalBetting says he's been tipped off that Labour got 16% in the Euros (he doesn't mention the other parties). There again it could be disinformation.
ReplyDeleteThere's no way that the Toires are going to get 30% + - that's most unlikely. The local elections were true enough and probably what we should all concentrate on in terms of a GE but there will be massive protest votes in the Euros.
ReplyDeleteAs follows:
Conservative 23.5
UKIP 21
Lab 18
Lib 17
BNP 6.5
Green 8
Others 6
It's probably close enough for Labour to go on about the collapse in the Tory vote. They'll all know that it's nonsense, but it will be enough to save Brown.
Missing the point.
Just listened to Ladyman on the BBC. They are already writing off losing to UKIP. The line being that European Elections don't count. Apparently people make strange choices when voting on Europe.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we could be lucky and Brown is staying. (should I say good for Tory election chances - bad for the country).
Conservative 32%
ReplyDeleteLabour 15%
LibDem 19%
UKIP 16%
BNP 3%
Green 10%
Others 6%
Now that Gordo has seen the local results - someone would have been busy 'correcting' 'errors' so now the votes are:
ReplyDeleteLab: 101%
Rest: 0
Conservative 24%
ReplyDeleteLabour 17%
LibDem 14%
UKIP 22%
BNP 6%
Green 8%
Others 9%
hi
ReplyDeleteno prediction but a thought and questions -
why do people think that Labour will do worse than 23% it had in the English Council elections on Thursday?
For the Euros, the vote will include votes from Scotland and Wales which were not included in the 23% Labour gained on Thursday.
The only way Labour will do worse that 23% is if people voted Labour in the county council election and then another way in the Euros which i think unlikely - or for the Labour vote in Scotland and wales to be almost negligable and to drag down the 23%. Again unlikely.
I dont think Lab will do much better than 23% but doubt they will fall by much.
i might of course be wrong lol!
Lord Mandelson linked to Derek Draper? This would have been better out before the election!
ReplyDeleteSame crap, different actors. Lord Mandelson linked to Derek Draper, wee Jimmy Broon in even more trouble
Con: 23%
ReplyDeleteUKIP: 19%
LibDem: 10%
Green: 8%
BNP: 4%
Labour: 4%
Others: 4%
I believe that politicians and the media are failing to take into account the anger that the public feels about being denied a referendum. That's why the LibDems did badly in the council elections, despite their being more saintly than the rest in their expenses claims.
The really important thing is to total up the percentage of the votes that support parties that do not wish to see the Lisbon Treaty ratified by the UK. That means the Tories, UKIP plus the other minors like No2EU etc. If the sum total outweighs the others, how in God's name can the government simply ignore that and still claim to democratic?
ReplyDeleteI think Labour will be beaten by eitehr the Lib Dems or UKIP into third place (or possibly by both into fourth). I don't believe the Labour and Green hype about the BNP being able to win a seat. Mind you these were my feelings when I was under the impression that voter turnout would be high. Apparently not.
ReplyDeleteConservative 26%
ReplyDeleteLabour 17%
LibDem 16%
UKIP 19%
BNP 6%
Green 8%
Others 8%
RM
My Euro Election Prediction is......This time tomorrow there will be a herd of Labour MEPs packing their bags.
ReplyDeleteFalconer aka 'Tony's apostle on earth' calls for leader debate...
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/mh5ypm
AND WERE OFF OR IS THAT THE GP:)
Conservatives; 24
ReplyDeleteUKIP; 23
Li Dem; 18
Labour; 12
Greens; 11
BNP 9
Others;3
Even UKIP WINNING.....
Of course, you have the interesting factor in Wales of what was previously a 'protest' party - Plaid Cymru - which is now in power in the Assembly with Labour and so it is difficult to know how people will vote for the 'fourth' party.
ReplyDeleteCertainly, their friends in the BBC seem to think that they will be in first place here, although there has been a massive effort put in by the Welsh Conservatives in getting out their pledged voters during the last week. Labour, it is said, have been nowehere and the Lib-Dems have been strangely quiet as well i.e. very few leaflets through the door.
Of course, no-one really knows until 10pm but I am content to be quietly optimistic for the Conservatives.
With this plethora of predictions, who will be kind enough to tot up and average them all, please?
ReplyDeleteDuyfken:
ReplyDeleteI can't - I'm getting on with the job. And I'm certainly not arrogant. Nor am I complacent. I'm too busy getting on with the job. Because I've got three tasks. If you'd like to help me than I could always arrange for you to have a peerage - what do you think? I'm getting on with the job and I'm not arrogant.
Here's how I think the parties will finish
ReplyDelete1) Conservative
2) UKIP
3) Lib Dems
4) Labour
5) Green Party
6) Others (BNP will get 1 or 2 seats)
C 28
ReplyDeleteLD 19
UKIP 17
L 16
GRN 8
BNP 2
Other 10
By putting both Labour & UKIP at 18% Iain fudges the important question of whether Labour will be able to hang onto 2nd place. From the way they were talking on Marr today it looks like the expectation is that UKIP, at least, will beat Labour. Lets keep the other results but say Labour at 17% & UKIP at 19%.
ReplyDeleteI've just watched the Mandelson/Marr interview. God the man makes me sick. I hope Labour continue to think it's a good idea for him to represent the party on TV. He makes my skin crawl.
ReplyDeleteConservatives THE WINNER!
ReplyDeleteUKIP/Limpdems joint second (well, more or less)
Labour FOURTH
-but of course Brown will point out that this means they're really in third place and have done exceptionally well, and that, taken with the triumphant local results, this just confirms that the people love him and want him to be their Saviour, the Great Helmsman who will steer them through the turbulent Sea of Economic Despond to the calm and peaceful Blue Lagoon of universal prosperity and fairness for all.
Or something like that.
you have all forgotten the English Democrats?. not a chance eh?
ReplyDelete@Ryland
ReplyDeleteYou're failing to take the SNP and into account in Scotland, so while Labour will increase their vote in real terms from the local elections, the SNP will blunt that in percentage terms.
You also missed out UKIP who do substaintially better in the euro vote than the local vote because they field a full slate of candidates across the board and aren't generally considered a major player in local politics.
You said that you couldn't see people voting for different parties in local and euro elections but it's actually quite common. I for one voted Conservative locally and Libertas for Europe.
Newsnight's Michael Crick was up in Preston on Thursday and he was speaking to people who voted Labour locally and UKIP for Europe. To me this indicates that Labour's white, working class vote is becoming ever more eurosceptic. They could never vote for the Conservatives so seem to be backing UKIP instead.
Coup is not over... Expect more fun later and tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteCoup isn't over yet and Sugar must quit call!
@Fausty
ReplyDeleteI don't think most of the public give any thought to a referendum on Europe unless they're asked.
As for this being a reason for the Liberal Democrats losing votes in the local elections, I doubt it. They're actually in favour of a referendum.
Conservative 30%
ReplyDeleteLabour 15%
LibDem 17%
UKIP 20%
BNP 3%
Green 7%
Others 6%
Ho ho.
Con
ReplyDeleteUkip
LibDem
BNP
Lab
Green
Conservatives 35%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 18%
Liberal Democrats 17%
Labour 16%
Greens 11%
BNP 3%
This makes me SO angry!
ReplyDeleteWhilst Brown fiddles, THIS is what is happening in the real world: 'Warning of nursing shortfall in the UK'. Fix THIS problem, Brown!
Conservative 32%
ReplyDeleteLabour 16%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 17%
BNP 5%
Green 7%
Others 8%
I think the BNP might get 10-12% in the Northwest.
ReplyDeleteNationally
ReplyDeleteConservative 28%
LibDems 20%
Lab 19%
UKIP 15%
BNP 6%
Green 6%
Others 6%
it would be amazing if th Cons got 30% mine is
ReplyDeleteConservative 24%
Labour 17% (2nd)
UKIP 17% (3rd)
Lib Dems 17% (4th)
Greens 10%
BNP 6%
Others 9%
Conservative: 26%
ReplyDeleteLiberals: 25%
UKIP: 16%
Labour: 14%
Green: 10%
BNP: 5%
Others: 4%
Brown to be gone by July.
Conservative 29%
ReplyDeleteLabour 17%
LibDem 18%
UKIP 16%
BNP 3%
Green 9%
Others 8%
and then we can say no one apart from UKIP will be particularly pleased with how they've done?
fsn reporters blog http://fsn.typepad.com/blog/
Con 30%
ReplyDeleteLab 16%
UKIP 16%
Lib Dem 13%
Gren 10%
BNP 8%
Others 7%
Based on what I saw at the KCC count (in terms of vote splits in the county cote, not Euro papers!):
ReplyDeleteConservative: 27%
UKIP: 18%
Green: 17%
Lib Dem: 16%
Labour: 13%
BNP: 7%
Other: 2%
Though I'm living in dream world where the Greens beat the Lib Dems.
Don't know why Anonymous thinks we'll get 2nd place in Scotland . The decades of leftist hate-propoganda will take a lot longer to wear off .
ReplyDeleteI'll go for
1.SNP
2.Labour
3.Conservative and Unionist
4.LibDem
5.UKIP
6.Green
UKIP would need to nearly treble its last vote to gain a seat , so the only change will be that the Conservatives lose one seat , as Scotland loses one seat over all .
So SNP 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, LibDem 1 .
Proportional representation ? What's the point in voting if the result is always the same ?
ortifyConservative 26%
ReplyDeleteLabour 15%
LibDem 19%
UKIP 21%
BNP 9%
Green 7%
Others 4%
I hate to sat it but based on the council election results I think that the BNP could receive as much as 10%
ReplyDeleteThey received significant support in many areas hitherto unknown to be BNP strongholds eg they were polling up to 20% in parts of rural Lincolnshire. And where the hell did that seat in Hertfordshire come from?
After the results of this election become known we'll see that one in three English people have voted for political parties that want both an immediate withdrawl from the EU and an immediate halt to immigration
Anopnmous at 10.53
ReplyDeleteI presume you mean nationally including Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland?
Conservatives 32%
ReplyDeleteLabour 16%
Lib Dem 16%
UKIP 14%
Green 7%
BNP 3%
Others 12%
UK-wide
ReplyDeleteTory 28%
UKIP 19%
LibDem 17%
Labour 16%
Green 6%
BNP 4%
Other 8%
Scotland will return 3 SNP, hoovering up most of the votes going in Eng/Wales to UKIP, BNP, and to an extent Green. No Tory resurgence, with Labour particularly hard hit up here.
Conservative targeting of their strong areas will see the vote hold up relatively well....all things considered.
ReplyDeleteCon 30
UKIP 18
L/D 18
Labour 15
BNP 5
Green 7
Others 7
I predict my mate will be re-elected since she is now top of the ghastly list.
ReplyDeleteConservative 29%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 19%
LibDem 16%
Labour 15%
Green 7%
BNP 7%
Others 7%
I hope the BNP vote will be much less.
Most boring thread ever.
ReplyDeletePlease create another one for open comment.
Pretty please.
Slightly OT, but I would just like to record my great shame that we will not know the Scottish results until tomorrow because of Christian (funda)mentalists in the Ooter Hebrides not being willing to count on the Sabbath. And there was me thinking Europe had moved on from the Middle Ages.
ReplyDeleteI hang my proud Caledonian head in shame.
Sophia:
ReplyDeleteditto in northern Ireland
i think it will be UKIP on top - made up mostly of conservatives sending the leadership a strong anti-EU message.
ReplyDeleteI also envisage the BNP doing better, picking up votes in traditional Labour working class areas. motivated BNP supporters are more likely to have gone out and voted than apathetic average Labour voters.
The Greens wont do too well - folks are getting sick and tired of the nanny state & a "climate change" movement thats made up of career politicians meddling in our lives and campaigning trustafarians running onto airport runways.
My prediction:
UKIP 25
Conservative 24
Lib Dem 15
Labour 14
BNP 12
Others 7
Green 3
note -its a no brainer that euro elections are a totally different dynamic to a general election one - but there are big lessons for the major parties here. Nick Clegg will be safe. Brown will be forced out. Cameron will have to take heed and explicitly promise a referendum on Lisbon. no caveats. No slippery conditions. He's gotta me more direct period.
Conservative 24%
ReplyDeleteLabour 22%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 20%
BNP 6%
Green 9%
Others 4%
The ballot will have been tampered with.
R56
note - my green prediction is partially based on what i'm seeing in the Irish local elections , where they have been wiped out in many councils.
ReplyDeleteok, they are tainted by being in coalition with a highly unpopular Fianna Fail government, but i suspect thats not the only reason.
because of the recession, there is definitely a mood swing away from "climate change" nonsense , and more into hard solid politics about job creation. unemployment over there is sky rocketing.
Green politics is the politics of doing well economically and an extra bonus in an upturn. Not so during a the cold hard realities of millions unemployed during a downturn.
Another thought.... is Glenys Kinnock on the Labour List for Wales?
ReplyDeleteJust checked, no she isn't - was that always the intention?
R56
word verification: preop !!!!
my prediction (GB voting share) is:
ReplyDeleteCon 27.0
Lab 17.6
LD 16.0
UKIP 15.5
Green 10.5
BNP 5.8
Conservative 29%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 20%
LibDem 19%
Labour 17%
Greens 7%
Others 8% ( Plaid, SNP, etc)
Perhaps a competition, using those figures, on how each party can explain that they did well and all the others did badly. Just heard a Labour muppet saying that all main parties did equally bad on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteCon: 27%
ReplyDeleteLib: 18%
UKIP: 18%
Lab: 15%
Greens: 7%
BNP: 6%
Others: 9%
I also think you underestimate the number of Conservatives voting UKIP.
ReplyDeleteLeading Order will be
Conservative
UKIP
Lib Dem
Labour
Labour will try to hide their disaster by saying was just expenses scandal and pointing out lower than expected Conservative vote than as supposed evidence of this.
Ideally, I'd like to see UKIP, Tory, (big gap) LibDem, Labour, (big gap) BNP, Green; realistically, I expect it'll be Tory, UKIP, LibDem, Labour, Green, BNP. As long as UKIP and the Tories do well and Labour does badly, I'll be fairly happy with the outcome.
ReplyDeleteAs others have pointed out, it's a great shame the Tories can't take a more democratic stance and earn the support of those of us who had to vote UKIP instead. Still, without UKIP more than half the population would be left disenfranchised, so it could be worse!
UKIP 22%
ReplyDeleteTory 22%
LibDem 18%
BNP 12%
Labour 11%
Green 11%
Other 4%
Conservatives 27%
ReplyDeleteUKIP 21%
Lib Dem 17%
Labour 16%
Green 11%
BNP 5%
Others 3%
My prediction is the BBC will say the Tories vote share is either 'very disappointing', or simply 'disappinting'.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the prize I win for this please?
I think it might be roughly:
ReplyDeleteConservative 27%
Labour 15%
LibDem 17%
UKIP 18%
BNP 6%
Green 10%
Others 7%
I added 2 onto Greens because Joanna Lumley has gained so many kudos for her Gurkha campaingn & she mentioned that she believed in the Greens so I suspect some 'undecideds' who don't want to vote libladcon will have voted Green
Your guess is as good as any Iain:
ReplyDeleteConservative 30%
Labour 18%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 18%
BNP 4%
Green 8%
Others 7%
Of course after the postal votes have been taken into account, it will be more like:
Conservative 30%
Labour 31%
LibDem 10%
UKIP 10%
BNP 4%
Green 8%
Others 7%
Or am I too cynical?
hi
ReplyDeletei asked earlier in the day why Labour will get less that 23 % which they got on Thursday - do contributors think people voted labour in the shire county elections and then some one else in the euros?
also if you put in that Scotland and wales will have voted and these will be areas where Labour will do well - certainly better than the English shires then the Lab vote ought to be at least 23%
Excluding Ireland of course:
ReplyDeleteCon 26%
UKIP 18%
LD 16%
Lab 15%
BNP 7.5%
Green 7.5%
SNP/PC 3.75%
Other 6.25%
Conservative 25%
ReplyDeleteLabour 12%
LibDem 15%
UKIP 21%
BNP 10%
Green 8%
Others 9%