The YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times shows a 5 point lead for the Conservatives...
Conservatives 41 (-1)
Labour 36 (+3)
LibDem 14 (-1)
UK Polling Report says this is the lowest Tory lead for a year. Labour's extra support is coming from the LibDems and minor parties. Political Betting says the Tories' only consolation is that they remain above 40%. However, if this poll were repeated at an election it would produce a hung parliament.
There's another poll out later for the Independent on Sunday. More later.
UPDATE: IoS poll is
Conservatives 43 (+4)
Labour 32 (+1)
LibDem 12 (-4)
UK Polling report analysis HERE.
I guess the BNP are taking voters from the three 'main' parties then?
ReplyDeleteHow this could happen is quite beyond me - when was it taken? Given the state of the country and given the state of Sterling, I find this poll incomprehensible.
Duff stats?
Which 'polls', exactly ?
ReplyDeleteAs Obama wisely stated, 'polls' are irrelevant. Media statements of 'neck and neck' race were proved totally wrong.
Percentages can only be determined on 100% of the population being included.
Are we supposed to really believe these laughable "Pollsters?", do they think people are (completely) stupid?
ReplyDeleteWho are they Poling?, Poles?
Broon OUT!
McLabour OUT!
its happening because people are stupid, very stupid.
ReplyDeleteWonder if these polls were done before or after PMQs?
Iain
ReplyDeleteComres is out now 43 32 12
Sindy poll is now on UK Polling Report.
ReplyDeleteWhy was my comment not allowed Iain?
ReplyDeleteYou know that one about Osborne being a loser and causing the Tories to lose their lead?
I hope we're not censoring posts we don't like these days.
IoS poll is C 43:L:32:L:12. Conservatives share remaining pretty stable at 41-43% in four polls now, Labour & Lib Dems varying.
ReplyDeleteNot sure why its the Tories who are panicking - Clegg is the one in trouble.
Let's wait till the General Election shall we?
ReplyDeleteI suggest this because it's becoming clearer by the day what the Tories are really still like, despite the last few years of slick Cameron PR.
To note just a few recent examples....
* In favour of privatising social services.
* Willing to use black Haringey as an attack test-bed for this plan.
* Flying specially to see Murdoch, just like Blair did. Then immediately attacking the BBC.
* Still very much the party of John Redwood and other miscellaneous extremists.
We will see!
Another one for you to delete Iain no doubt.
I haven't disallowed any comment from you.
ReplyDeleteThe Conservative team around David Cameron is lightweight
ReplyDeleteAgree 48%
Disagree 35%
No surprise thedre.
The reason for the narrowing in the polls is that the voters have had a look at Cameron and Osborne and have judged them to be shallow.
As much as I agree with people who think Osborne is the problem, not the solution, this is Iain's blog and if he wants to delete comments then that is entirely his right.
ReplyDeleteOk, sorry Iain. Maybe it didn't go through for some reason.
ReplyDeleteThe performance of the Lib Dems is very instructive.
ReplyDeleteConventional opinion has it that Vince Cable has had a good credit crunch. He is invited onto the Today programme alongside a neutral expert thereby giving himself the aura of an expert.
But his party's rating is very low.
Meanwhile, the big narrative is that George Osborne has had a dire credit crunch.
But his party's support is unaffected.
This recession is going to be worse for us than for others. And that extra bit will be Brown's fault.
The Tories need to say this, but not to be seen to be celebrating or rejoicing in Brown's disaster. Their tone should be more in sorrow than anger, but their message should be clear. And that means clearer than it has been to date.
I think we should hang parliament they are traitors to the UK national interest.
ReplyDeleteNot too bad considering. Steady away.
ReplyDelete* Still very much the party of John Redwood and other miscellaneous extremists.
ReplyDeleteRedwood an "extremist"? Sod off back to the SWP.
"...black haringey..." wtf??
ReplyDeleteI think David Cameron's Modern Conservative Party is still far too right wing for the majority of people in this country.
ReplyDeleteThe larger poll leads were a protest against Gordon Brown.
DC still needs to 'centre' his party if he wants to win the next general election.
Canvas
ReplyDeleteYou have a point. Where the polls show changes is in Lib Dem and minor party support. It drifts to us on social issues but appears to be moving towards Brown on economic issues.
If Conservative MP's had bothered to turn up and vote against un-elected regional ministers being imposed on England and all the other anti English agenda perpertrated by this government, the Conservatives would be well ahead.serves them right.
ReplyDeleteAll people are being offerd is a change of administration with no change.
I am not suprised when you see how timid the Tories are with Labour.
ReplyDeleteThey appear to be standing at the sidelines looking on.
Do you remember Blair before he won his first election. he was doing the rounds as an angry young man. This is how the Tory leadership should be.
The Tories are just to wet.
Prepare for wall-t-wall blanket BBC coverage of any poll showing a reduced Conservative lead...
ReplyDeleteNeilfitzgerald says "It drifts to us"
ReplyDeleteIt drifts to 'you' - not 'me'. I don't belong to any political party in the UK. I'm an undecided voter.
I like David Cameron very much. It's the rest of the Conservative Party that worries me greatly.
I'm not convinced 'they' have really changed all that much.
I would take You GOv poll with a spoonfull of salt. Kellner who mages it is the husband of the Labour Baroness who replaced Mandelson at Brussels. I have been watching and listening comments of Kellner since the 10 years. He is tribal Labour.
ReplyDeleteToday Independent says about Tories 11 points ahead, not clear whether it is the latest poll. But the poll of polls should average around 8 /9 points not bad as Brown had all the running with the help of BBC.
The Times is becoming like Guardian , supporting Brown. The Thunderer which I admired as a paper when I was 12 is more like tabloid sensationalist.
Not surprising as Murdoch who has a youngish Chinese wife was angry at Obama on the eve of his victory and used his 'Australian' newspaper to rubbish him. Murdoch gripe is that Obama wants to conrol outsourcing and is particularly exerciised about Jobs going to China and India. Linked to China through his younger wife, Murdoch was scathing about Obama's comments on jobs shipped abroad. it does not suit Murdoch's empire expansion. His Fox nes did its best to undermine Obama.
Murdoch appreciates Brown call of keeping the globalisation working and hence Brown's call for no support for American automobile manufacturers.
Even when Thatcher courted Murdoch
to crush the printing unions in Fleet Street, Australians who knew Murdoch warned her about Murdoch and how he can change ship.
For all the wishful thinking of the posters on this topic, the likely outcome as it stands, is an election in May 2009, with a workable Regime majority.
ReplyDeleteThe Tories need to start working smarter in the background. The regime, thanks to campbell and madleson has got the media management and rebuttal squad re-organised and fighting hard.
The Conservative Party should fund an independent organisation or university to study Opinion Polls over a five or ten year period.
ReplyDeleteHow they are conducted. Their methodology etc and their results.
I am sure they will find bias with a capital B.
It will also be a warning shot across the bows of these organisations.
Colin @ 1202 offers wise advice.
ReplyDeleteCameron has got a real fight on his hands. I believe he needs advice from people who are in touch with ordinary people -who are the majority - both within his shadow cabinet and included within his advisors.
Some will laugh and pour scorn on this. But I think that people like Richard Littlejohn, Jon Gaunt, Nick Ferrari would, if they were agreeable and could be hired, be absolutely devastating in Attacking and counter attacking Broon and Co! in and on the Media.
The Conservatives need people who can put the boot in because, believe me, it is going to get dirty.
Labour Communists
ReplyDeletehttp://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=6ruDDo788IE
I don't think (unlike Canvas) that the Tories are too right wing.
ReplyDeleteI don't think they are getting their message across well, especially on the economy.
I also don't think it goes down well that the front bench are mainly public schoolboys. That is why Clarke and Davis on the front bench would go down well.
Maggie would have called most of them "wets".
Dalesman - you are wrong to identify them as "wets". Osborne/Cameron are well over to the right in reality and this will become crushingly clear in the unfortunate event that they are elected. That is why Dale (himself a fairly typical Essex "well over" man) is so supportive of the said George O.
ReplyDeleteOh and as regards Redwood - he may or may not qualify for the label "extremist" - but I think any centrist type person such as myself listening to him on Radio 4 Any Questions the other night would have felt a mixture of puzzlement, nausea and a deep desire to hit someone listening to him. I literally had to turn the radio off in the car when it became just too much. What a complete sod he really is.
The media has gone way too far in lionising the PM - everywhere I look on the news Gordon Brown seems to be involved in some positive way.
ReplyDeleteLast night on the BBC wasn't about Osborne's criticism, it was about Gordon Brown regretting this criticism! If that isn't biased reporting I'd like to know what is.