political commentator * author * publisher * bookseller * radio presenter * blogger * Conservative candidate * former lobbyist * Jack Russell owner * West Ham United fanatic * Email iain AT iaindale DOT com
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
BREAKING NEWS: Tories Over 50% in MORI Poll?
UK Polling Report is reporting rumours of a MORI poll showing some incredible results...
The figure to look for in interpreting this result - if it is true - is the proportion of the electorate contributing.
There have been VERY HIGH proportions of the electorate who are admitting they are NOT CERTAIN TO VOTE. But more important of those saying they are CERTAIN TO VOTE around 33% are saying they won't say or don't know. AND almost a third of those who express a preference say they may well change anyway.
In a sample of around 1000 and only say 500 expressing a preference it only takes a few to move from certain to vote to not certain or to go to don't know/won't say.
For what it's worth, New Labour at Cabinet level have been nowhere near as cantankerous or poisonous as the Tories were whenever they feared backbench break-up.
Cameron has no answers to the problems so it's a nice protest vote, in order to start a fire you need a spark and Cameron isn't hard enough so as to be flint like.
The Tories are enjoying dancing in the dark and in the deep gloom of these desperate times - enjoy it while others, as the vote shows - clearly don't.
Me too. I would suggest that Brown's refusal to allow his party internal opposition to have their say under Party Rules will have pushed a lot of people into the blue corner, though 100,000 jobs in the City blown away in 3 days, and the projected 25% drop in house prices (I feel 50% before the market bottoms is nearer the mark), is going to affect sentiment for longer. The more certain a Tory victory, the less people will vote LibDem as a protest and their vote could sink to UKIP levels. The worrying thing is that DC might havehave such an overwhelming lead, and no effective parliamentary opposition, that he will feel able to renage on uncomfortable promises, such as the Referendum. As the next Tory Govt. will need 3 terms to sort out the almighty Debt Tsunami left by Gordo, the Economists' economist. The Cabinet should takes steps to avoid Hubris from Day 1. I volunteer to sit in the shopping basket and say " Remember David, thou art mortal", as he cycles to the House.
Great poll for the Tories - the next election could well be a watershed in that it routs the left and enables them to unify and we have sensible politics in this country.
For too long the LD's have perverted the electoral landscape and stopped what the public really wants - strong government and an opposition that holds it to account. LD's are only interested in themselves, maybe if they get whiped out as this poll inplies and Labour suffers a heavy defeat they can start again!
Well he has no idea if he does or does not. In fact I believe the Tory party do know precisely what needs to be done.
The point is that whilst there IS an answer, its just that its not a very palatable answer - we are facing 40,000 job losses alone from the forced govt backed merger between Lloyds and HBOS .
The medicine and the need for it will be a complete repudiation of the last 11 years, the failed Brown paradigm. It seems ridiculous to suppose the present govt is capable of carrying it through.
It needs a new govt to do the business. In this case the govt in waiting is a Tory one.
The scale of the current mess is to compare it with MG Rover. Then the govt ran round in circles to save 6000 jobs by gifting the company to Phoenix.
Now we have the govt happy to see 40,000 redundancies to salvage the financial meltdown and shore up Brown politically.
Seems to be 52% is far too low. But the biggest hoot of all, for all you dunces who voted labour at the last election is that the much derided by the left Blair was reduced to dragging Brown around with him (sharing ice creams if you remember) to shore up the Labour vote.
As Bob Monkhouse would say, I bet your not laughing now.
For the record on this, according to Electoral Calculus, the Tories would have 481 seats, Lab 110 and the LD's 11! Tories would pick up Manchester Withington and Newcastle Central!!!
If you look at IQ it's a standard Gaussian distribution, where 66% of the populace is with 1 standard deviation of the mean (IQ100), 95% are within 2 standard deviations and 99.5% within 3.
One standard deviation is about 15 points on an IQ chart, meaning 17% of the population have an IQ above 115 or below 85.
That, I think, explains 17% of Labour's 24% vote share: they are clinically retarded.
The rest of them are the payroll vote. Or as we doctors say, "tapeworm".
Great poll for the Tories - the next election could well be a watershed in that it routs the left and enables them to unify and we have sensible politics in this country.
That is what a lot of us thought would happen in 1979.
Socialism like some franchised movie monster will keep comming back
Great poll for the Tories - the next election could well be a watershed in that it routs the left and enables them to unify and we have sensible politics in this country.
That is what a lot of us thought would happen in 1979.
Socialism like some franchised movie monster will keep comming back
I'm impressed, that is a lot of alcohol to have in one's blood. Not since the days of Lord George Brown and old Labour have such figures been recorded.
chrispaul- your devotion will gain you the iron cross. democratic centre - still working in the number 10 kindergarten then!
trevorsden. Of course Cameron does not know and, indeed, cannot say just what he will find.
I suggest he follows Mayor Johnson's example and promises a root and branch examination of the nation's books with a promise to reveal the full extent of Brown's rule as Chancellor and as PM!
This is just a poll. But more evidence, if evidence is needed, that the Labour Party are, indeed, facing extinction. I believe that the 121 or so Labour seats are counting the Scottish Labour Seats and the SNP effect has not been taken into consideration.
The question is:- WILL LABOUR HAVE A LARGER PARTY IN WESTMINSTER THAN THE LIB DEMS?
As a libertarian, it's extremely sweet reading to see a poll that shows such misery for the two parties that voted for the unnecessary and vindictive smoking ban experiment, whilst the Tories who voted 3:1 against are surging in popularity.
LD & Lab should remember that smokers are voters too, but more specifically Labour should understand the concept of actually adhering to various manifesto pledges whilst Clegg and his party look up 'Liberal' and 'Democrat' in their Collins Concise ;-)
Man in a shed. If Gordo went to the Palace, Her Majesty would accept his resignation and then ask some loser from Labour to form an administration. If no one came forward, there would be a bloodbath. Noone in New Labour is stupid enough to put their head above the parapet. ergo Tory majority 150 plus... How could Labour fight an election with no money?? Its a car crash.
What a turnaround. To think that it's only 12 months since smug old Brown was playing "will I, won't I" about calling an election that he was almost guaranteed to win.
I would have to suggest though that it may be a good example of the old saying that "Oppositions don't win elections - Governments lose them". Hopefully the Tory conference will produce a few policies to help turn the screw!
Andy in Newcastle: I may be a one-trick pony but ...
... I wonder what it was that happened just over 12 months ago which turned off enough voters to lose Labour's 11% lead and dissuade Gordy from calling a snap election? It was before Northern Rock, the Credit Crunch and the 10% tax band fiascos so it can't be that.
Anyone would think Labour had unnecessarily upset about 12 million voters in their private lifestyle choices or something!
Luckily for the Lib Dems they are hoovering up the votes eh? Oh ... hold on.
Wow. Based on my quick calculation, if this was repeated at a general election, you would have the biggest majority ever. You would just beat Stanley Baldwin, who won a majority of votes cast during the Depression.
We'd also lose Geoff Hoon, Patricia Hewett, Alan Milburn, Jack Straw, Charles Clarke, Alistair Darling and Ruth Kelly. Labour would be in danger of losing Sedgefield (Blair's old constituency). Brown would probably keep his seat, though, unless Scotland went dramatically SNP which would be a separate issue.
Too much hysteria. And too much boorish offensive comment. I have to wonder at what type of people inhabit the Tory and far right blogosphere when I look at this underworld of Dale and Fawkes. And these are the more acceptable face of Toryism?
The focus has been so much on Labour's poor showing that very few comments relate to the disastrous showing for the Lib Dems. On these figures, they would be back to the days of the parliamentary party being able to meet in a taxi. And if the Conservatives did gain over 50% of the popular vote, they would not be able to bleat about a government winning a majority of the seats on a minority of the votes.
@ curly, they have reported it but its at the bottom of a story with Prescott's name at the top. When the BBC are too scared to put a poll as a headline and Prescott is preferred you know the Tories are onto a winner!
As Alistair Campbell just pointed out on C4 news, the first question the poll asks is "if there were an election tomorrow, who would you vote for?" and the thing to remember is there is not going to be an election tomorrow and maybe not until 2010.
The Tory's strong lead may have more to do with Gordon Brown than David Cameron. If there were a shock announcement and Gordon stood aside for the good of the country and was replaced by a popular figure how long would the Tory lead last?
What if Vince Cable made a shock announcement that he would defect and take up the cudgel for Labour, now there's a thought.
The figure to look for in interpreting this result - if it is true - is the proportion of the electorate contributing.
ReplyDeleteThere have been VERY HIGH proportions of the electorate who are admitting they are NOT CERTAIN TO VOTE. But more important of those saying they are CERTAIN TO VOTE around 33% are saying they won't say or don't know. AND almost a third of those who express a preference say they may well change anyway.
In a sample of around 1000 and only say 500 expressing a preference it only takes a few to move from certain to vote to not certain or to go to don't know/won't say.
Will be very interesting to see the small print.
PS: It's ipsos MORI.
It's an extraordinary figure, if it's for real then it might have sealed Brown's fate.
ReplyDeletechris paul you are a berk.
ReplyDeleteKeep grabbing those straws, Chris -they won't save you.
ReplyDeleteIt wouldn't make any sense given the lack of movement recently and relative lack of controversy :S
ReplyDeleteA Tory win is a psephological impossibility?
ReplyDeleteAre the LDs still in favour of PR?
For what it's worth, New Labour at Cabinet level have been nowhere near as cantankerous or poisonous as the Tories were whenever they feared backbench break-up.
ReplyDeleteCameron has no answers to the problems so it's a nice protest vote, in order to start a fire you need a spark and Cameron isn't hard enough so as to be flint like.
The Tories are enjoying dancing in the dark and in the deep gloom of these desperate times - enjoy it while others, as the vote shows - clearly don't.
Oh Chris Paul. That really is desperate. Do you think that turnout or "fairly likely to vote" is significant?
ReplyDeleteThis is a galaxy sized lead. Massive.
As for trying to claim a the poll is a rogue - well perhaps the last twenty Ipsos Mori polls have been rogue too?!
Your comment is a classic illustration of how party loyalty blinds people to the bleedin' obvious.
PS: Almost all polls understand Tory support.
So you wouldn't be clutching at straws or anything, then, Chris.
ReplyDeleteChris Paul in head-hidden-up-arse shocker
ReplyDeleteWhat if Brown, feeling betrayed, went to the Palace .....
ReplyDeleteChris Paul, You're whistling in the dark.
ReplyDeleteStart believing - it's true!
ReplyDeleteI can't believe that result at all
ReplyDelete24% still wanting to vote for Labour???
Iain would I be right in thinking that this is about a 37% swing from the last election and that on that basis according to the swingometer( BBC)
ReplyDelete...Umm we have ...errrm all the seats just about ? Well ok what is the as if GE then ?
"The figure to look for in interpreting this result - if it is true - is the proportion of the electorate contributing."
ReplyDeleteI think it's a very small sample of the total electorate... as with most polls.
Let's not forget that opinion polls tend to underestimate Tory support, even now.
ReplyDeleteSomeone on Poltical Betting reckons ....
ReplyDeleteConservative 470
Labour: 121
Lib Dems: 8
NI: 18
PC: 3
SNP: 20
Thats about what I thought it was can that be true ?
Me too. I would suggest that Brown's refusal to allow his party internal opposition to have their say under Party Rules will have pushed a lot of people into the blue corner, though 100,000 jobs in the City blown away in 3 days, and the projected 25% drop in house prices (I feel 50% before the market bottoms is nearer the mark), is going to affect sentiment for longer. The more certain a Tory victory, the less people will vote LibDem as a protest and their vote could sink to UKIP levels.
ReplyDeleteThe worrying thing is that DC might havehave such an overwhelming lead, and no effective parliamentary opposition, that he will feel able to renage on uncomfortable promises, such as the Referendum.
As the next Tory Govt. will need 3 terms to sort out the almighty Debt Tsunami left by Gordo, the Economists' economist. The Cabinet should takes steps to avoid Hubris from Day 1.
I volunteer to sit in the shopping basket and say " Remember David, thou art mortal", as he cycles to the House.
and ( Chris Paul) remember Brown bottled the election when he was actually well ahead on the basis of far worse data coming from the marginal seats.
ReplyDeleteIt could be even worse for Labour than it looks !!!!
Great poll for the Tories - the next election could well be a watershed in that it routs the left and enables them to unify and we have sensible politics in this country.
ReplyDeleteFor too long the LD's have perverted the electoral landscape and stopped what the public really wants - strong government and an opposition that holds it to account. LD's are only interested in themselves, maybe if they get whiped out as this poll inplies and Labour suffers a heavy defeat they can start again!
That HAS to be Brown nailed, not sure that is an entirely good thing for the Tories but he is gone, surely??
ReplyDeleteThat's what I can't get my head around. Even now, 24% are still saying they'll vote Labour?
ReplyDeleteIf you put those figures in electoralcalculus.co.uk you get:
ReplyDeleteCON : 493
LAB : 121
LIB : 8
It would be meltdown.
"For what it's worth, New Labour at Cabinet level …"
ReplyDeleteAnd what do *you* think it's worth, D-C @ 4.27?
Come on, what am I bid? [Stunned silence]
Do I hear ... a monkey's fart …..? [Stunned silence]
I can only imagine the 24% are ex-mining stock and the Scots....
ReplyDeleteIan_QT said...
ReplyDeleteThat's what I can't get my head around. Even now, 24% are still saying they'll vote Labour?
Must be the 24% who can remember how terrible the Tories were in government ;-)
Democratic Centre says Cameron has no answer ...
ReplyDeleteWell he has no idea if he does or does not. In fact I believe the Tory party do know precisely what needs to be done.
The point is that whilst there IS an answer, its just that its not a very palatable answer - we are facing 40,000 job losses alone from the forced govt backed merger between Lloyds and HBOS .
The medicine and the need for it will be a complete repudiation of the last 11 years, the failed Brown paradigm. It seems ridiculous to suppose the present govt is capable of carrying it through.
It needs a new govt to do the business. In this case the govt in waiting is a Tory one.
The scale of the current mess is to compare it with MG Rover. Then the govt ran round in circles to save 6000 jobs by gifting the company to Phoenix.
Now we have the govt happy to see 40,000 redundancies to salvage the financial meltdown and shore up Brown politically.
Seems to be 52% is far too low. But the biggest hoot of all, for all you dunces who voted labour at the last election is that the much derided by the left Blair was reduced to dragging Brown around with him (sharing ice creams if you remember) to shore up the Labour vote.
As Bob Monkhouse would say, I bet your not laughing now.
Fifty-two per cent of what?
ReplyDeleteFor the record on this, according to Electoral Calculus, the Tories would have 481 seats, Lab 110 and the LD's 11! Tories would pick up Manchester Withington and Newcastle Central!!!
ReplyDeleteIt's unlikely but isn't it fun to see!!!!
"That's what I can't get my head around. Even now, 24% are still saying they'll vote Labour?"
ReplyDeleteLabour have created a vast army of parasites. We will have to deal with them...
Is there any break down on what this means for the SNP percentage up here in Jocko-land?
ReplyDeleteJames, Glasgow
If you look at IQ it's a standard Gaussian distribution, where 66% of the populace is with 1 standard deviation of the mean (IQ100), 95% are within 2 standard deviations and 99.5% within 3.
ReplyDeleteOne standard deviation is about 15 points on an IQ chart, meaning 17% of the population have an IQ above 115 or below 85.
That, I think, explains 17% of Labour's 24% vote share: they are clinically retarded.
The rest of them are the payroll vote. Or as we doctors say, "tapeworm".
Martin Day
ReplyDeleteGreat poll for the Tories - the next election could well be a watershed in that it routs the left and enables them to unify and we have sensible politics in this country.
That is what a lot of us thought would happen in 1979.
Socialism like some franchised movie monster will keep comming back
Martin Day
ReplyDeleteGreat poll for the Tories - the next election could well be a watershed in that it routs the left and enables them to unify and we have sensible politics in this country.
That is what a lot of us thought would happen in 1979.
Socialism like some franchised movie monster will keep comming back
The purpose of opinion polls is not to measure public opinion, but to influence it.
ReplyDeleteNote that most polling is now conducted by telephone. In other words, they know who they are asking.
chris paul.
ReplyDeleteI'd be laughing if I wasn't seriously concerned for your mental health.
I'm impressed, that is a lot of alcohol to have in one's blood. Not since the days of Lord George Brown and old Labour have such figures been recorded.
ReplyDeletechrispaul- your devotion will gain you the iron cross.
ReplyDeletedemocratic centre - still working in the number 10 kindergarten then!
trevorsden. Of course Cameron does not know and, indeed, cannot say just what he will find.
I suggest he follows Mayor Johnson's example and promises a root and branch examination of the nation's books with a promise to reveal the full extent of Brown's rule as Chancellor and as PM!
This is just a poll. But more evidence, if evidence is needed, that the Labour Party are, indeed, facing extinction. I believe that the 121 or so Labour seats are counting the Scottish Labour Seats and the SNP effect has not been taken into consideration.
The question is:- WILL LABOUR HAVE A LARGER PARTY IN WESTMINSTER THAN THE LIB DEMS?
As a libertarian, it's extremely sweet reading to see a poll that shows such misery for the two parties that voted for the unnecessary and vindictive smoking ban experiment, whilst the Tories who voted 3:1 against are surging in popularity.
ReplyDeleteLD & Lab should remember that smokers are voters too, but more specifically Labour should understand the concept of actually adhering to various manifesto pledges whilst Clegg and his party look up 'Liberal' and 'Democrat' in their Collins Concise ;-)
TORIES 28% AHEAD OF LABOUR!
ReplyDeleteGood to see the Lib Dems are preparing for Government. Some things never change do they.
Man in a shed. If Gordo went to the Palace, Her Majesty would accept his resignation and then ask some loser from Labour to form an administration. If no one came forward, there would be a bloodbath. Noone in New Labour is stupid enough to put their head above the parapet. ergo Tory majority 150 plus... How could Labour fight an election with no money?? Its a car crash.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, I think, when it comes to it, many Labour voters will just stay at home rather than vote Tory.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if they will be the missing tenth kind of drinker Primarizzla was blathering on about.
What a turnaround. To think that it's only 12 months since smug old Brown was playing "will I, won't I" about calling an election that he was almost guaranteed to win.
ReplyDeleteI would have to suggest though that it may be a good example of the old saying that "Oppositions don't win elections - Governments lose them". Hopefully the Tory conference will produce a few policies to help turn the screw!
Andy in Newcastle: I may be a one-trick pony but ...
ReplyDelete... I wonder what it was that happened just over 12 months ago which turned off enough voters to lose Labour's 11% lead and dissuade Gordy from calling a snap election? It was before Northern Rock, the Credit Crunch and the 10% tax band fiascos so it can't be that.
Anyone would think Labour had unnecessarily upset about 12 million voters in their private lifestyle choices or something!
Luckily for the Lib Dems they are hoovering up the votes eh? Oh ... hold on.
Could someone kindly estimate which of the present Cabinet would be left standing in the event of a GE according to these figures?
ReplyDeleteWow. Based on my quick calculation, if this was repeated at a general election, you would have the biggest majority ever. You would just beat Stanley Baldwin, who won a majority of votes cast during the Depression.
ReplyDeleteWe'd also lose Geoff Hoon, Patricia Hewett, Alan Milburn, Jack Straw, Charles Clarke, Alistair Darling and Ruth Kelly. Labour would be in danger of losing Sedgefield (Blair's old constituency). Brown would probably keep his seat, though, unless Scotland went dramatically SNP which would be a separate issue.
Too much hysteria. And too much boorish offensive comment. I have to wonder at what type of people inhabit the Tory and far right blogosphere when I look at this underworld of Dale and Fawkes. And these are the more acceptable face of Toryism?
ReplyDeleteIt cannot be true, the BBC have not reported it - how odd.
ReplyDelete@ jtw
ReplyDeleteAny unpleasantness that you perceive is totally dwarfed by the unquestionable unpleasantness of the government.
0/10. Try again.
The focus has been so much on Labour's poor showing that very few comments relate to the disastrous showing for the Lib Dems. On these figures, they would be back to the days of the parliamentary party being able to meet in a taxi. And if the Conservatives did gain over 50% of the popular vote, they would not be able to bleat about a government winning a majority of the seats on a minority of the votes.
ReplyDelete@ curly, they have reported it but its at the bottom of a story with Prescott's name at the top. When the BBC are too scared to put a poll as a headline and Prescott is preferred you know the Tories are onto a winner!
ReplyDeleteAs Alistair Campbell just pointed out on C4 news, the first question the poll asks is "if there were an election tomorrow, who would you vote for?" and the thing to remember is there is not going to be an election tomorrow and maybe not until 2010.
ReplyDeleteThe Tory's strong lead may have more to do with Gordon Brown than David Cameron. If there were a shock announcement and Gordon stood aside for the good of the country and was replaced by a popular figure how long would the Tory lead last?
What if Vince Cable made a shock announcement that he would defect and take up the cudgel for Labour, now there's a thought.
Only joking. :)