tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post670419447542140427..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: An Autumn Election Isn't Just Possible - It's ProbableIain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-76079411489543708322007-09-21T14:46:00.000+01:002007-09-21T14:46:00.000+01:00Has Gordon Brown got an appointment to see the Que...Has Gordon Brown got an appointment to see the Queen in the next few days?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-47527850633271971332007-09-21T12:56:00.000+01:002007-09-21T12:56:00.000+01:00Given the opportunity by whom, Anonymous 6:46 PM? ...Given the opportunity by whom, Anonymous 6:46 PM? Not by the Tories, that's for sure.<BR/><BR/>The outcome of an Election between Brown and any realistic Tory Leader (yes, including David Davies) matters not one jot. So find something better to do. That really shouldn't be too hard.David Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06839882674758833524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-476457611753013852007-09-21T09:36:00.000+01:002007-09-21T09:36:00.000+01:00Hannibal said:"He bottled out of taking on Tony Bl...Hannibal said:<BR/>"He bottled out of taking on Tony Blair for YEARS. He could easily have ousted him earlier but showed none of the courage he so admires in others."<BR/><BR/>I think you've hit the nail on the head there. I don't think he'll call an election next week because he simply hasn't got the guts.<BR/><BR/>(And I hope he doesn't, because if he wins with an increased majority I'm going to v.seriously consider leaving the country within months. Things could get ugly round here.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-35445569378099547942007-09-20T23:35:00.000+01:002007-09-20T23:35:00.000+01:00October election, why : if mugabwe goes to Euro ba...October election, why : if mugabwe goes to Euro bash, GB doesn't go, Kill's off the tough on EU Tory argument without agreeing to the new Treaty and leaves him October free for election on the 25th.<BR/><BR/>the next eu bash - no mugabwe & sign the treaty.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-32846043830012632012007-09-20T18:56:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:56:00.000+01:00jonny If the GE is called how many members and med...jonny If the GE is called how many members and media will be in Blackpool?<BR/>Do you work at cchq by any chance?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-75819482721837137342007-09-20T18:46:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:46:00.000+01:00david lindsay.6.25.You don't get it do you? It wil...david lindsay.6.25.<BR/><BR/>You don't get it do you? It will be an anti government vote that will materialise once the electorate is given the opportunity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-24326088276983977972007-09-20T18:25:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:25:00.000+01:00Anonymous 6:09 PM, at the local elections, it was ...Anonymous 6:09 PM, at the local elections, it was the electorate that "gave Dave a good kicking". Not the Tories. Dave. <BR/><BR/>Most of the Tories elected were not like David Cameron, and do not like David Cameron. Such are the Tories for whom people will and do vote.<BR/><BR/>By contrast, during the Cameron months, super-safe Tory parliamentary seats have become knife-edge marginals, and respectable second places have become distant thirds, on one notable occasion involving a showing barely better than that of the BNP.<BR/><BR/>Voting Tory in a parliamentary election strikes most people as far too close to voting for David Cameron.<BR/><BR/>The Tories are going to do badly at the next General Election. So badly, in fact, that that Election is not going to take place this autumn, lest the Tories be wiped out, and replaced during the subsequent Parliament with a serious alternative party of government.<BR/><BR/>But even so, look out for just how badly they do in constituencies with candidates drawn from the Cameron A-list.David Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06839882674758833524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-51865660050325456192007-09-20T18:23:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:23:00.000+01:00anonymous 5.30 - I'm assuming nothing. I'm simply...anonymous 5.30 - I'm assuming nothing. I'm simply drawing attention to a risk that Gordon Brown would be running. David Cameron runs the risk that you identify.antifrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17211299136528160895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-43300994661645602442007-09-20T18:22:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:22:00.000+01:00Round here there's been a noticeable increase in t...Round here there's been a noticeable increase in the number of two-man police patrols just ambling round the neighbourhood. Visible policing... I saw three pairs of coppers in around half a mile the other day. <BR/><BR/>We are an extremely marginal constituency - Conservative MP last election for the first time in many years, and only by a very small number of votes.<BR/><BR/>Has this been noticed anywhere else in the UK, particlarly in marginals? Is this part of a short-term plan to increase visible patrol levels until after an autumn election?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-34593014408826979152007-09-20T18:09:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:09:00.000+01:00chris paul.3.58."....will give Dave a good kicking...chris paul.3.58.<BR/>"....will give Dave a good kicking."<BR/><BR/>Much like they did in the local elections a?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-39784491182941492372007-09-20T18:07:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:07:00.000+01:00Imagine the scenario. Polls showing a Labour lead ...Imagine the scenario. Polls showing a Labour lead right up to polling day. Come election night, BBC commentators start sniping at each other when they realize with horror that seats are falling to the Tories nationwide. They have of course underestimated the voting intentions of middle England, much like they did the millions of mid-west voters of the USA who voted for George Bush. Delicious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-8056351286027561252007-09-20T18:01:00.000+01:002007-09-20T18:01:00.000+01:00He may well cut a run:This, for many people, will ...He may well cut a run:<BR/><BR/>This, for many people, will be the £64,000 question:<BR/><BR/>Can he get to the poll date before<BR/>HIS UK credit crunch is perceived to have precipitated the housing market into going tits up?The Military Wing Of The BBChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04811519612440901811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-42681407101024720272007-09-20T17:56:00.000+01:002007-09-20T17:56:00.000+01:00Brown's key strength is his supposed seriousness. ...Brown's key strength is his supposed seriousness. <BR/><BR/>Calling an election just to bugger the Conservative conference will completely undermine that after the buggering about with Thatcher, done clearly for party political games.<BR/><BR/>If it's called, and it maybe, it won't be until after the Conservative conference.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-56515711029926586352007-09-20T17:55:00.000+01:002007-09-20T17:55:00.000+01:00Rather than giving the Conservatives a headache by...Rather than giving the Conservatives a headache by announcing the election on the eve of their conference, Brown may be doing them a favour.<BR/><BR/>Presuming that the Conservative conference would go ahead albeit in an altered format, it would give them (if they take the opportunity) fantastic media exposure, and 1 week into the contest Brown may already be regretting his decision as the polls tighten.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-59808402961492537662007-09-20T17:30:00.000+01:002007-09-20T17:30:00.000+01:00antifrank-your assuming that those shy types are g...antifrank-your assuming that those shy types are going to vote this time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-34770932536132833532007-09-20T17:05:00.000+01:002007-09-20T17:05:00.000+01:00If they were planning an early election, they woul...If they were planning an early election, they would put returning officers on alert.<BR/><BR/>I know for a fact that at least one council has set themselves for a 1st November election.<BR/><BR/>The plot thickens...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-39650221339948808392007-09-20T16:52:00.001+01:002007-09-20T16:52:00.001+01:00"Everything in my gut tells me that an election wi...<I>"Everything in my gut tells me that an election will be called next week."</I><BR/><BR/>Don't worry yourself. It's very common for your guts to become unrealiable when you go on a foreign holiday. Flat Coca-Cola is supposed to help.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-88479529371299314602007-09-20T16:52:00.000+01:002007-09-20T16:52:00.000+01:00Abstain.Unless you are lucky enough to live in Liv...Abstain.<BR/><BR/>Unless you are lucky enough to live in Liverpool West Derby or other constituencies details of which would be very welcome (davidaslindsay@hotmail.com) for publication on my blog and elsewhere, this is a time to exercise your democractic right not to vote, and thus with any luck bring about the collapse of, in particular, the Tories.<BR/><BR/>That would lead rapidly to the collapse of Labour, since what would then be the point of it, deprived of the Tory bogeyman? And the Lib Dems are wholly parasitic on the other two.<BR/><BR/>None of them deserves your vote. So don't give it to any of them, and make them go away.David Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06839882674758833524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-83651612995590884592007-09-20T16:50:00.000+01:002007-09-20T16:50:00.000+01:00>theo sparkWho gives a stuff about Zim?Mugabe was ...>theo spark<BR/>Who gives a stuff about Zim?<BR/>Mugabe was "democraticall" elected. Let him stuff the country up.<BR/><BR/>And anyway, apart from gesture politics, nothing can be done with RSA on side.. And they are NOT.<BR/><BR/>So it's just flimflam and complete bollocks (i.e politics as usual)Madasafishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06109237198481955714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-87987804521340786582007-09-20T16:33:00.000+01:002007-09-20T16:33:00.000+01:00sonicdeathmonkey-although the Member for Monmuth i...sonicdeathmonkey-although the Member for Monmuth is talented I doubt that even he would think it appropriate at this stage in his career.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-73690439904993382252007-09-20T16:20:00.000+01:002007-09-20T16:20:00.000+01:00Calling an autumn election would also sidestep the...Calling an autumn election would also sidestep the manifesto commitment to call a referendum on the Reform Treaty.<BR/><BR/>That said, I doubt he'll do it. Gordon Brown is not a natural risk-taker. Given the phenomenon at successive elections of shy Tories mutely casting their vote in the Conservative box while not revealing that to the pollsters, he would run a real risk of losing his majority unnecessarily.antifrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17211299136528160895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-86804166977623249902007-09-20T16:05:00.000+01:002007-09-20T16:05:00.000+01:00It would be an act of Christian charity if Gordo c...It would be an act of Christian charity if Gordo called the election and saved dave from having to face his own Party in Blackpool.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-4656893422727238282007-09-20T16:04:00.000+01:002007-09-20T16:04:00.000+01:00i really wouldnt overstate the danger Labour is in...i really wouldnt overstate the danger Labour is in in Scotland for the GE. I reckon they will do very badly to lose more than 3 seats - Dundee West, Ochil and South Perthshire and Aberdeen North. Even these should be defensible for Labour. There is absolutely no way the SNP will wreak havoc in the Central Belt with Brown as PM. The SNP always poll worse at Westminster and even with a national increase of 10-12% very few Labour seats would fall to them. They must also have a shout at retaking both East Dunbartonshire and Dunfermline and West Fife.<BR/><BR/>scottish conservativeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-57159171377634248422007-09-20T16:03:00.000+01:002007-09-20T16:03:00.000+01:00i really wouldnt overstate the danger Labour is in...i really wouldnt overstate the danger Labour is in in Scotland for the GE. I reckon they will do very badly to lose more than 3 seats - Dundee West, Ochil and South Perthshire and Aberdeen North. Even these should be defensible for Labour. There is absolutely no way the SNP will wreak havoc in the Central Belt with Brown as PM. The SNP always poll worse at Westminster and even with a national increase of 10-12% very few Labour seats would fall to them. They must also have a shout at retaking both East Dunbartonshire and Dunfermline and West Fife.<BR/><BR/>scottish conservativeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-82292398887902326402007-09-20T16:00:00.001+01:002007-09-20T16:00:00.001+01:00I am of the opinion too that Gay Gordon will go fo...I am of the opinion too that Gay Gordon will go for an autumn election.<BR/>There is too much bad news, financial woes, and other troubles on the horizon for him to leave it till next year.<BR/>All he needs is a majority, it doesn't matter how slim, and he is safe for another five years.<BR/>As for his concerns about fellow Scottish MPs. When has Gay Gordon given a feck about other people?<BR/>He is a power grabbing selfish bastard that is all you need to know.<BR/>Expect an announce when it can cause maximum damage to the Conservatives.Barnacle Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17257546424880537005noreply@blogger.com