tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post3651311963528770712..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: Jon Craig's Election Facts & FiguresIain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-11037624132800342362010-01-20T14:58:41.348+00:002010-01-20T14:58:41.348+00:00Jon Craig is wrong about the number of unitary cou...Jon Craig is wrong about the number of unitary councils which have elections in May. There are 20, not 19. The one discrepancy is the City of Stoke-on-Trent which was originally going to have its elections cancelled in preparation for moving to all out elections from 2011. Consultation produced a strong response against cancelling 2010 so those elections will go ahead for one third of the seats in Stoke.David Boothroydhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01161970886471901426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-79649211249038866042010-01-19T09:19:34.605+00:002010-01-19T09:19:34.605+00:00Good to see somebody recognising that Cruddas has ...Good to see somebody recognising that Cruddas has a fight on his hands in Dagenham & Rainham and could well lose, rather than blithely talking of him as a post-election challenger for the Labour leadership.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-50947159715158678562010-01-19T02:10:33.119+00:002010-01-19T02:10:33.119+00:00Thinking out loud, will the lack of other election...Thinking out loud, will the lack of other elections in Scotland and Wales reduce turnout a bit there, and vice versa? Won't be consistent, but there will be some consitutencies that have some burning local issue that will get people out to vote in the local elections and whilst they're in the booth, vote for an MP as well.<br /><br />I'm no psephologist but AIUI low turnouts favour blues over reds, so might the Welsh Tories benefit a bit, whereas those in the English marginals with local elections (London?) might suffer?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-76078675873909969482010-01-18T22:45:00.944+00:002010-01-18T22:45:00.944+00:00I thought it was a good article - and makes a chan...I thought it was a good article - and makes a change from the usual guff about election predictions all over the internet.<br /><br />For what it's worth, my prediction is 40/30/20 - which should give the Tories a modest working majority. <br /><br />I don't read much into uniform swing figures - Scotland simply isn't worth taking into consideration as a whole. England only would give the Tories a landslide.<br /><br />I think I'm also right in saying England only would have given the Tories a majority in 2005.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03145511491998925108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-25856369271309007892010-01-18T21:34:03.948+00:002010-01-18T21:34:03.948+00:00Iain,
Perhaps it was a little harsh but that is b...Iain,<br /><br />Perhaps it was a little harsh but that is because of the source. Craig's analysis and interpretation of polls and statistics is generally quite dreadful.<br /><br />He needs a 'dummy's guide to political stats' and that by the looks of it is what he has just got (TV current affairs bods generally are pretty appalling on polling etc).<br /><br />I know in other lives you have provided marvellous analysis and stats (18 DS for example) so highlighting Craig is a real drop in standard....Wat Tighler's Returnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13872414536157536159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-15364005117376011902010-01-18T20:23:22.364+00:002010-01-18T20:23:22.364+00:00well thanks a lot. Funnily enough I am quite used ...well thanks a lot. Funnily enough I am quite used to using Google etc. But I thought for some of myu readers it might be usedul to have all these stats in one place. Jeez, wish I hadn't bothered. No pleasing some people!Iain Dalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-962418473886586222010-01-18T20:16:30.151+00:002010-01-18T20:16:30.151+00:00Iain, I really don't know what you or Craig ar...Iain, I really don't know what you or Craig are getting so excited about? Can't you use wikipedia and Google? The Parliament website can be useful too<br /><br />Like this...<br /><br />http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2009/rp09-054.pdf<br /><br />And these guys get paid for political analysis. Shish anyone would think they'd never seen a computer....Wat Tighler's Returnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13872414536157536159noreply@blogger.com