tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post286226122178814005..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: What the LibDems Gain on the Roundabouts They Will Lose on the SwingIain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-85229341031305205932009-08-21T14:40:51.440+01:002009-08-21T14:40:51.440+01:00PS I'm thinking that the Lib Dems in the dee...PS I'm thinking that the Lib Dems in the deep South West will actually tend to hold on to their seats. Against the pattern in the rest of the British Isles where they will be run ragged. They've been found out as jumped up local councillors masquerading as MPs in many cases and as a party they stink rather than being any sort of breath of fresh air after some rather inept local government and coalitiony outings.Chris Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15679067503215414300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-43563633982017893532009-08-21T14:38:10.750+01:002009-08-21T14:38:10.750+01:00PS I'm thinking that the Lib Dems in the dee...PS I'm thinking that the Lib Dems in the deep South West will actually tend to hold on to their seats. Against the pattern in the rest of the British Isles where they will be run ragged. They've been found out as jumped up local councillors masquerading as MPs in many cases and as a party they stink rather than being any sort of breath of fresh air after some rather inept local government and coalitiony outings.Chris Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15679067503215414300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-44565460876212873312009-08-21T14:31:12.728+01:002009-08-21T14:31:12.728+01:00Why is Rochdale in the targets and Man Wit in the ...Why is Rochdale in the targets and Man Wit in the defences? Both are Lib Dem held seats with Labour attacking and both have fairly small majorities. And in both cases the key question of whether voters prefer Lab or Con in Number 10 will probably crystalise matters and this will not benefit the LDs.<br /><br />In Rochdale <a href="http://chrispaul-labouroflove.blogspot.com/2009/08/bananas-rochdale-lib-dems-continuing-to.html" rel="nofollow">Paul Rowen MP appears to be trying to commit hari kari</a> by threatening legals over Labour leaflets involving the concepts of a gravy train and bananas ...<br /><br />He might have more of a case to argue if anyone was saying it was against the letter of the laws to be siphoning money off by various means to fighting funds, but generally these endemic Lib Dem ruses are arguably within the rules. Or in what the LDs themselves term grey areas.<br /><br />His party in the NW ain't going to be thanking him for drawing attention to their exes when in the re-calibrated brave new world deliberate sharp practice "within the rules" seems to be just as capable of gaining scalps as foolish, accidental or knowing claims outside the rules.Chris Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15679067503215414300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-15996953376006580032009-08-19T00:00:40.465+01:002009-08-19T00:00:40.465+01:00Iain, I hp[e you will refute the allegation of hom...Iain, I hp[e you will refute the allegation of homophobic campaigning from the Lib Dems in NOrth Norfolk as one idiot (known as illiberal Democrat) claims in a comment on this posting that it was a feature of the Lib Dem campaign and responsible for the result in 2005.Nich Starlinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04237390959601973501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-76376315391840275662009-08-18T14:20:27.605+01:002009-08-18T14:20:27.605+01:00You should not discount the possibility of substan...You should not discount the possibility of substantial defections from the Conservatives to UKIP at the next election so that it would be quite possible for the LibDems to gain seats in the Lib/Tory marginals even if they only manage to stay at their present percentage level. <br /><br />I think Cameron & Co may be in for a nasty shock particularly if they do not make it clear that they will hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty whether or not it has been previously ratified.<br /><br />Labour will almost certainly dump Brown before the election so they may perform better than is currently indicated too.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05025494937214741653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-59982892847783232082009-08-18T11:05:38.435+01:002009-08-18T11:05:38.435+01:00Trevor Ivory's group is great:
http://www.fac...Trevor Ivory's group is great:<br /><br />http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2739978611<br /><br />In North Norfolk my vote is switching from Liberal Democrat to Conservative.<br /><br />I regret not having voted for you Iain. Sorry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-23928108841164220582009-08-18T10:55:17.558+01:002009-08-18T10:55:17.558+01:00The Lib Dems will lose Rochdale for certain. Paul ...The Lib Dems will lose Rochdale for certain. Paul Rowen is utterly bananasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-43393580288139384722009-08-18T10:51:24.270+01:002009-08-18T10:51:24.270+01:00"Only fourteen out of these thirty seats are ..."Only fourteen out of these thirty seats are held by Labour"<br /><br />So pretty much half then.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-84834102427113755542009-08-17T22:23:00.245+01:002009-08-17T22:23:00.245+01:00who cares?who cares?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-77829404097668956522009-08-17T21:51:15.433+01:002009-08-17T21:51:15.433+01:00Solihull is already a held seat. It'll count a...Solihull is already a held seat. It'll count as a gain because of boundary changes after the last election.<br /><br />I think your analysis is generally fair, but it's rather difficult to assess the Lib Dems in such a way because most of the time the seats aren't won on a national message, because they can't fight the Tories on that. The gains they make will be made because of strong local issues, and therefore you can't just blanket them.<br /><br />Personally I think they'll hit 65, with about 6 lost to the Tories.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-22408030123985700552009-08-17T21:37:30.299+01:002009-08-17T21:37:30.299+01:00Iain! You must not let your defeat at the hands of...Iain! You must not let your defeat at the hands of a Lib Dem spin artist cloud your judgement of how weak and vunerable Lib Dems are when the two-horse race crunch starts to bite.<br /><br />In 2007, the Lib Dems lost nearly 250 councillors- these all had "personal votes" as well on a local level, but the overwhelming support for the Tories saw a thumping defeat for them. In both 2008 and 2009, they had a near 0% increase in councillors- having lost all their gains to Tory candidates. In some areas, Labour actually *won* back seats held by them.<br /><br />It is an extremely basic assumption to think that Labour voters will vote for the Lib Dems to keep the Conservatives out- just look at the Henley by-election- the Labour vote collapsed, but nearly none of it went to the Lib Dems- if anything it went to the Conservatives (who had a bigger percentage vote gain!)<br /><br />Also- various amounts of those seats that have Labour as the main opposition (Leeds North West, Watford etc) have the Conservatives in a very close third place- and will undoubtably see a leapfrog were the local Conservatives were weak in 2005.<br /><br />Norman Lamb is a formidible opponent- very few Fib Dem MPs have his ability to manipulate the media and I honestly think 55 seats at the next election is far far far too generous- it's going to go back to somewhere around the 42 mark.<br /><br />It really is a two horse race between the Conservatives and Labour!Michael Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-87833223591350288352009-08-17T21:07:13.356+01:002009-08-17T21:07:13.356+01:00Iain
I totally agree with your analysis regarding ...Iain<br />I totally agree with your analysis regarding the LibDems problem at the next election. On a good night for the Tories, which will certainly be the case next May, Cameron will be taking LibDem seats in the South which means that the Clegg has to make huge strides in the North against Labour if he is to achieve his stated aim of a LibDem government within 2 parliamentary terms – some hope! This is surely the golden scenario for the Tories. If the LibDems have 40 seats after the next election they will be doing extremely well.<br />Incidentally, you omitted Sheffield Hallam on your list of Con/Lib marginal’s!!David, Maidenheadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-49836868715333188262009-08-17T21:06:27.723+01:002009-08-17T21:06:27.723+01:00Peter Cranie "The Lib Dems will also have to ...Peter Cranie "The Lib Dems will also have to cope with many more Green candidates in 2010 than in 2005." That is if the Green Party hasn't torn itself apart - the internal election for External Communications Co-odinator has been suspended, because of dirty tricks. Let's face it this year's Euros were the best opportunity for the Greens have had in twenty years for a breakthrough, but it was in the words of Matt Woottan (former External Comms) 'a terrible failure'. After hyping up the Greens prospects in the more gullible media, then coming 5th, Rupert Read has ensured no one will bother giving Greens coverage in future. I‘m more scared of the Pirate Party!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-11831266779034897992009-08-17T20:06:10.541+01:002009-08-17T20:06:10.541+01:00If Nick Clegg can find a personality and some dece...If Nick Clegg can find a personality and some decent jokes the Lib Dems could still do well at Labour's expense in the industrial areas.Ian Thorpehttp://www.greenteethmm.com/qepanelgame.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-75845700850619284572009-08-17T19:23:25.777+01:002009-08-17T19:23:25.777+01:00Come on Iain, you of all people should know that a...Come on Iain, you of all people should know that a lot has happened since 2005, for good and bad. The LDs had some truly great results in certin seats in 07, 08 & 09. I can name seats that have full time LD staffers working on them that aren't in the top 30 seats as calculated over 4 years ago. Do you honestly think the LDs will lose Eastleigh and Westmoreland?? No neither do I.<br />What may I ask are the Tory seats underthreat? Let's face it some of your MPs have made a fantastic mess of things of late. Oh just an afterthought, expect a big Con > LD swing in Bexly and Old SIdcup.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-21830120534237590582009-08-17T19:19:38.353+01:002009-08-17T19:19:38.353+01:00Who's this marginal Lib Dem in York?!Who's this marginal Lib Dem in York?!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-16218305450090562542009-08-17T17:51:58.021+01:002009-08-17T17:51:58.021+01:00"wafer seats"--rather good!
"If th..."wafer seats"--rather good!<br /><br />"If the Lib Dems had any brains at all, they would agree a pact with Cameron that tories and libs would not stand against each other in three way marginals so as to ensure that the anti-Labour vote is consolidated.<br />The prize is the same for the tories and the libs - Labour in 3rd place."<br /><br />yep but the libdems don't have much by way of brains<br /><br />i just find them annoyingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-82871420763188641212009-08-17T17:46:33.509+01:002009-08-17T17:46:33.509+01:00Iain,
Are you going to let us in on the secret? W...Iain,<br /><br />Are you going to let us in on the secret? Which are the 5 Lib Dem target seats in the list of 30 that you think they will win next year?<br /><br />Solihull and Rochdale will have the incumbancy factor you mention.<br /><br />What are your other hunches?<br /><br />Im more optimistic and think the LDs could get to 80 seats or at least stay at 62 (or 63 including Dunfermline and West Fife/ Willie Rennie) so Im hoping your 55 is a underestimate!SDWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-6619227465690766412009-08-17T17:20:32.616+01:002009-08-17T17:20:32.616+01:00I'm just plain bored at the moment.
Roll on t...I'm just plain bored at the moment.<br /><br />Roll on the party conferences, especially so called New Labour, and let all the back stabbing recommence - then maybe we can actually get on with holding this (morally if not legally) overdue election. Sorry if you still have work to do for your publication, Iain, but, as my old school motto said, "Ad Rem Mox Nox" (Just had a quick look at the website and it appears to have been dropped and the badge changed. Presumably too elitist for the current pupils to understand Latin. Most of us only did Latin for a year but we coped with it.)<br /><br />Grumpy old woman mode off.Margaretnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-82993476831369146802009-08-17T17:09:05.857+01:002009-08-17T17:09:05.857+01:00Try Ashfield (Hoon), the Lib Dems should take itTry Ashfield (Hoon), the Lib Dems should take itLord Monteaglenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-44206718676639872222009-08-17T15:58:22.346+01:002009-08-17T15:58:22.346+01:00Good Facebook group:
http://www.facebook.com/grou...Good Facebook group:<br /><br />http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2739978611<br /><br />If North Norfolk was fought on Facebook and Youtube Trevor Ivory would win hands down.<br /><br />Sadly for him it is not that simple.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-82820807318487817052009-08-17T15:55:06.970+01:002009-08-17T15:55:06.970+01:00Word reaches me that North Norfolk constituents ca...Word reaches me that North Norfolk constituents can't stand Gordon Brown.<br /><br />I doubt an anti-tory vote would work this time.<br /><br />Trevor Ivory has a good Facebook group I agree.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-83036180946610395332009-08-17T15:52:05.727+01:002009-08-17T15:52:05.727+01:00The Lib Dems will also have to cope with many more...The Lib Dems will also have to cope with many more Green candidates in 2010 than in 2005.Peter Craniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00360575849841504671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-42701152745908445522009-08-17T15:38:16.521+01:002009-08-17T15:38:16.521+01:00I agree with Stepney in that a lot of Lib Dem supp...I agree with Stepney in that a lot of Lib Dem support in greater London is going to transfer to the Tories come voting time. People want Labour out and will vote to achieve that. Families in the leafy suburbs voted Tory before it became unfashionable to do so in the 1990s, and will do so again in order to eject the tyranny of NuLab.wapping boynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-48924750751983893082009-08-17T15:16:18.600+01:002009-08-17T15:16:18.600+01:00Not quite Reliant Robin in my view but certainly a...Not quite Reliant Robin in my view but certainly a much smaller bus.<br /><br />At 19% of vote on Electoral Calculus at present a 44 seater is envisaged.<br /><br />Allowing for Scottish seats & an assumed strong SNP performance 3 of their target seats (from Labour)appear unlikely and 2 of their held marginals might be lost.<br /><br />Any expenses drop outs?<br /><br />Possibly a 20-35 seater should be booked!BOF2BShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09361138976246811811noreply@blogger.com