tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post115963793890294766..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: Polls Aren't As Bad As They Seem...Are They?Iain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159807154907340792006-10-02T17:39:00.000+01:002006-10-02T17:39:00.000+01:00Tone"-That's because you "democrats" at nu lab hav...Tone<BR/>"-That's because you "democrats" at nu lab have rigged the boundary commission to ensure A 5% LEAD for the Tories feeds into a hung parliament."<BR/><BR/>A 5% Tory lead over labour menas the Tories get slightly over 1 vote in 3 & Labour slightly less. It takes some special pleading to winge that the Tories deserve an overall majority on that.<BR/><BR/>In fact the situation is worse than you think because a 5% Tory lead would almost certainly make Labour the largest party & might give them an overall majority.<BR/><BR/>However the Tories are not going to get any sympathy about losing out to a corrupt electoral system as long as the Tories still support the corrupt FPTP system.<BR/><BR/>Cameron could, of course, virtually guarantee winning the next election by coming out for a democratic electoral system & on theat basis, striking an electoral deal with the LDs & (which would balance the ticket) UKIP.neil craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09157898238945726349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159775262713636552006-10-02T08:47:00.000+01:002006-10-02T08:47:00.000+01:00"... and in reality Howard did far better than was..."... and in reality Howard did far better than was expected, and hardly, FFS, got a creaming."<BR/><BR/>Election <BR/>1983: Tory maj. over Labour: 188<BR/>1987: Tory maj. over Labour: 147<BR/>1992: Tory maj. over Labour: 100<BR/>1997: Labour maj. over Tory: 253<BR/>2001: Labour maj. over Tory: 244<BR/>2005: Labour maj. over Tory: 158<BR/><BR/>As you can see, with the single exception of 1983, we've never had as big a lead over Labour since 1945 as Labour had over us in 2005.<BR/><BR/>2005 only seemed good by comparison with the immediate past, in the sense that the headache starts to go away when you stop hitting your own head with a hammer. Objectively, it was another disaster, worse for us than 1987 was for Labour--when people were writing learned papers about how Labour was finished and could never win power again.<BR/><BR/>So, just what <EM>would</EM> you call a creaming, Shotgun?<BR/><BR/>----<BR/><BR/>The first step on the road to victory is to get realistic. You should try it sometime.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159770848649792132006-10-02T07:34:00.000+01:002006-10-02T07:34:00.000+01:00I see 'shotgun' and 'Tone made me do it...' just d...I see 'shotgun' and 'Tone made me do it...' just don't get it:<BR/><BR/>A 5% or so lead in the actual general election should lead to a Tory government. That would be fine.<BR/><BR/>The trouble is that whatever lead the opposition has mid-term will fall back by many points (into being a 'minus' lead, or lead for the government, in fact) by the time we get to the general election. This ALWAYS happens, whoever is in government, whoever is in opposition: <BR/><BR/>So if the best we can manage this time round is about 5% at mid-point, we face an almost certain creaming, come the poll that matters. That's just the cold arithmetic of the situation. You can ignore it, or denigrate it, but you can't avoid it.<BR/><BR/>If the rest of the party were all as neanderthal about this as you, it would actually deserve to loose.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159745393747185432006-10-02T00:29:00.000+01:002006-10-02T00:29:00.000+01:002br02b said... "I'm very sorry, but that's crap.Th...2br02b said... <BR/>"I'm very sorry, but that's crap.<BR/><BR/>The actual fact is that there has not yet been a single -- a SINGLE -- poll that points to a Tory win at the next election."<BR/><BR/>-That's because you "democrats" at nu lab have rigged the boundary commission to ensure A 5% LEAD for the Tories feeds into a hung parliament.<BR/><BR/>Then you have the gaul to come on this blog and say the Tories are crap because they can't win a rigged race.<BR/><BR/>Fuck Off.The Military Wing Of The BBChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04811519612440901811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159741557022587762006-10-01T23:25:00.000+01:002006-10-01T23:25:00.000+01:00I'm very sorry, but that's crap.The actual fact is...<I>I'm very sorry, but that's crap.<BR/><BR/>The actual fact is that there has not yet been a single -- a SINGLE -- poll that points to a Tory win at the next election.</I><BR/><BR/>Please don't be sorry, because I equally think you are talking shite. The Tories have a majority of votes in England as of last May, and with boundary changes and the poll leads, this means that ALL polls giving them a slim lead even would make them winners. You, and most of other Labour morons, seem to conveniently forget that in Scotland and Wales the Tories don;t need a swing of virtually anything because the SNP and Plaid Cymru will do their job for them.<BR/><BR/><I>You seem to choose to ignore this awkward truth in the hope it will go away.</I><BR/><BR/>No, I choose to ignore the simplistic shite generated by Labour acolyte morons that say a party with a lead can't win because they are basically not incumbent. There is far more to it than that.<BR/><BR/><I>I'd rather face the truth and see what can be done to actually change things for the better.</I><BR/><BR/>Looking at polls themselves without considering any number of other issues is hardly anything other than complacency laziness.<BR/><BR/>Just as a short example...during the past three local elections the Tories have been slated, on the night, for not gaining enough, but in the end have done great..all withthe same sort of fatalistic commentary you seem bound to give. The last local election they had to gain x number of seats to have a good night, but gaining seats themselves is not the whole picture...or it is when taken simplistically. They gained FROM x amount they already held, and therefore did far better than anyone expected, or would care to admit.<BR/><BR/>Same with the figures for the last national election; look at the figures and you will see that there is a lot of fatalism spouted by left leaning tossers from the BBC, and in reality Howard did far better than was expected, and hardly, FFS, got a <I>creaming</I>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159731140073671762006-10-01T20:32:00.000+01:002006-10-01T20:32:00.000+01:00There will be a post conference bounce. I suspect ...There will be a post conference bounce. I suspect nostalga for Blair had something to do with the dip!Scipiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06514885826616402615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159722774313153752006-10-01T18:12:00.000+01:002006-10-01T18:12:00.000+01:00Sorry to bore on about this Iain but, if polls or ...Sorry to bore on about this Iain but, if polls or a sequence of polls, mean anything at all then the Conservatives are on the road to nowhere. This government (give or take an inspired piece of fiction like Blair's valedictory speech) has produced (and is) an absolute crock of sh*t. You know it, I know it, the public knows it. But the public gets nothing from Cameron and his fellow modernisers except vacuous PR and "don't rock the NuLabour economy". Of course, the Conservatives are failing in the polls.<BR/><BR/>The public doesn't need detailed policies. But they would like a clear statement of principles on which those policies are to be based. So far all they have to go on about Conservative principles is confirmation of no change in tax levels, no more grammar schools, the English are horrible to Scottish sportsmen, put a windmill on your roof, cycle to work and . . er . . no effective opposition in the Commons - very inspiring! Why would the public - even the mythical centre - prefer NuLabour Mark 2 to the real thing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159717757546068562006-10-01T16:49:00.000+01:002006-10-01T16:49:00.000+01:00I agree that it's now impossible to tell what the ...I agree that it's now impossible to tell what the Conservatives stand for. I used to know, but since David Cameron became leader he's distanced himself from traditional Conservative values such as being tough on crime and immigration but doesn't seem to want to say where he's arrived at instead. It's a shame because I like the very few things I know you now stand for like scrapping ID cards and protecting the environment but the Lib Dems offer both those things and it's clear where they stand on other issues too. I want to vote Conservative but I won't until it becomes more clear what you now stand for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159711246875340792006-10-01T15:00:00.000+01:002006-10-01T15:00:00.000+01:00Shotgun:One poll just before the Tory conference, ...Shotgun:<BR/><BR/><EM>One poll just before the Tory conference, after so many showing the Tories so far ahead they would undoubtedly win an election, over many months...and they are saying the Tories are going knowhere?</EM><BR/><BR/>I'm very sorry, but that's crap.<BR/><BR/>The actual fact is that there has not yet been a single -- a SINGLE -- poll that points to a Tory win at the next election.<BR/><BR/>Opposition poll leads of 5%, or even the occassional 10%, at this point is not good but bad. Very bad. They point to another creaming. That's the real, unpleasant, fact.<BR/><BR/>You seem to choose to ignore this awkward truth in the hope it will go away.<BR/><BR/>I'd rather face the truth and see what can be done to actually change things for the better.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159702353680468792006-10-01T12:32:00.000+01:002006-10-01T12:32:00.000+01:00If the Tories don't come out with some policies in...If the Tories don't come out with some policies in time for the May Scottish & Welsh elections they will deservedly get creamed. This may not seem important from the Westminster village - but perhaps that is why the Tories now have so few "provincial" seats.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand in his Andrew Marr interview today Cameron did make a passing reference to our Corporation Tax now being among Europe's highest (not because it has gone up but because all the others are going down). Perhaps I am grasping at straws but itwas welcome.neil craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09157898238945726349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159699656165062632006-10-01T11:47:00.000+01:002006-10-01T11:47:00.000+01:00Prior to the 90s the parties had clear political a...Prior to the 90s the parties had clear political and ideological differences that a)made politics interesting and b)actually gave people a choice.<BR/><BR/>Now we have three parties who, despite some differences, seem to be the closest since the dreaded years of Butskellism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159698570152205242006-10-01T11:29:00.000+01:002006-10-01T11:29:00.000+01:00A single poll does not a trend make. The Telegrap...A single poll does not a trend make. The Telegraph has an anti-Cameron agenda that occasionally manifests itself.<BR/><BR/>For those that doubt the substance of the man I suggest it takes some balls to arrive at the party leadership from nowhere and to sustain a credible performance over one year.<BR/><BR/>The slow advance of the Tories is only half the equation. The rapid decline of Labour is the other half. Things can only get better!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159697547804341562006-10-01T11:12:00.000+01:002006-10-01T11:12:00.000+01:00One poll just before the Tory conference, after so...One poll just before the Tory conference, after so many showing the Tories so far ahead they would undoubtedly win an election, over many months...and they are saying the Tories are going knowhere?<BR/><BR/>Labour and their supporters are clinging on to straws, and we Tories shouldn't feed them by giving any credibility to their idiocy, or these polls which are frankly shite.<BR/><BR/>Makes a good headline or two at a quiet time doesn't it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159688218672234802006-10-01T08:36:00.000+01:002006-10-01T08:36:00.000+01:00The Telegraph is now a labour paper.No. The truth ...<EM>The Telegraph is now a labour paper.</EM><BR/><BR/>No. The truth hurts.<BR/><BR/>The truth is that 5% ahead or level pegging at this point in the electoral cycle is just nothing like good enough.<BR/><BR/>Charism is useless without the right policies, and even the best possible policies are useless unless they're out there being sold as soon as possible, which should have been some months ago by now. On top of that, as I've already suggested, charisma may be an actual handicap this time round.<BR/><BR/>The way things are heading, we face not victory at the next GE, or even a hung parliament, but another slaughtering.<BR/><BR/>And even if the rank and file don't deserve that, the way the leadership are faffing aroung, they do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159662246199436902006-10-01T01:24:00.000+01:002006-10-01T01:24:00.000+01:00Iain said:"So what do we make of all that?"-that's...Iain said:<BR/>"So what do we make of all that?"<BR/><BR/><BR/>-that's easy: <BR/><BR/>The Telegraph is now a labour paper.<BR/><BR/>May the Good Lord have mercy on our souls.The Military Wing Of The BBChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04811519612440901811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159657395571313802006-10-01T00:03:00.000+01:002006-10-01T00:03:00.000+01:002b,,,thingyGood summary that I agree with for the ...2b,,,thingy<BR/>Good summary that I agree with for the most part .`Now I think that has to mean tax cuts`is the key phrase , for me .I think this is all going to depend timing the election with the `economy ` .<BR/> There are exceedingly worrying signs of overheating and unemployment increasing simultaneously suggesting that supply side damage is beginnings feed through into performance.<BR/><BR/>One of the reasons the Labour party are so keen to flood the market with cheap EU Labour is to try to bandage the damage up for now but with disincentive and other burdens building this and planning vandalism of various sorts will not hold the illusion of economic competence in place.<BR/>The one Poll in Browns favour is the `competent C of Ex.` , which stays high and he will hope ,rightly, is a better reflection of actual voting intentions than his `popularity`. He will be watching the landscape assiduously we can be sure . Look out then for brutal attempts to lever control of interest rates over the next two years.<BR/>Timing is everything.<BR/><BR/><BR/>By the way OG I do hope you are not refferring to me as `frothy` . Who do you mean exactly ? mmmmm?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159654161064243282006-09-30T23:09:00.000+01:002006-09-30T23:09:00.000+01:00A brief look back over history would reveal a coup...A brief look back over history would reveal a couple of points that the Tory Party seems to doing the best it can to ignore at the moment<BR/><BR/>The first point: Charisma has never won general elections (GE) for oppositions. It may occasionally help at the margins to keep an incumbent PM in No. 10, but it does not get a Leader of the Opposition there in the first place.<BR/><BR/>-- Churchill did not get there in 1940 by winning a GE, but by what was basically a 'coup'.<BR/><BR/>-- Thatcher did not win in 1979 by charisma--at the time she was generally considered not to have any--that year, the Tories did not so much 'win' as Labour 'lost'.<BR/><BR/>-- And I'm afraid that, even although he had charisma, Blair got to No 10 in 1997 for the same reason as Thatcher 18 years earlier; the Tories 'lost'. Perhaps, if Labour had been led by a Brown as uncharismatic as many round here now suppose he will be, back then the Labour majority would have been 10 or 20 seats less; maybe not--who can really tell? But it would still have been a whopping great landslide. And who can seriously doubt that if John Smith had not died, he would not also have won a landslide in 1997?<BR/><BR/>-- Major won in 1992 (to the surprise of so many) I suspect precisely because he was NOT charismatic. The electorate had been subjected to 10+ years of a charismatic PM and that was exactly what they did NOT want in the next one. Kinnock had other faults of course, but compared with Major, at that time and that place, he suffered from the severe handicap of being relatively charismatic.<BR/><BR/>The second point: Policy matters. Without well thought out and acceptable policies that have been presented to the electorate as far ahead of the GE as possible, there is no hope.<BR/><BR/>The party's policies have to be relevant, sensible, achievable, non-frightening, and different from the other guy's.<BR/><BR/>Relevant: for most people with a vote, relevant does not mean things like hugging trees; if it were possible to deliver cheaper petrol, that might work... Or anything to do with Europe, which is now a dead, dead issue once you leave the confines of your local Conservative Association: going on about Europe is like walking around with a big sign saying "We are the Living Dead Party"<BR/><BR/>Sensible: Practical measures that make a difference. Part of the genius of Labour in 1979 was that although they had promised not to raise taxes for two years, they has still come up with a number of policies that could be implemented without requiring extra taxation. Now you may not have agreed with these policies, but this device worked electorally: devolution, minimum wage, human rights, etc. Action, but at (apparently) no cost. And as a result, their manifesto was largely...<BR/><BR/>... Achievable: Don't promise what you cannot be certain you can deliver. But if you can manage this far, what you offer will be...<BR/><BR/>... Non-frightening. Now you're almost there, policy-wise. There's just one more hurdle. Unfortunately, it's the big one. It's being...<BR/><BR/>Different: There is no point in have a Tory Party that offers what is basically the same policy menu as Labour or the Lib-Dems. All that achieves is (a) pissing off your core vote and (b) persuading the swing vote that if all parties say they're going to do the same thing, they might as well vote for the party that most likely really means what it says--and if the policies look 'Labour', they won't be voting for a Labour-look-alike Nu-Tory Party.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, you must not be too different. The old 'clear blue water' idea was really a brief suicide note. Elections are won on the centre ground, not at the extremes (blue or red) so you have to challenge for the centre, but all the time not just becoming --or being seen as becoming--a clone of the other lot. <BR/><BR/>Now I think that has to mean tax cuts (just as a 'for example') and there are painless ways to do this I think: for one thing, scrap all these insane mega-billion IT projects like ID cards and in the NHS, etc., and that would free up a good few billion at no 'cost' right away.<BR/><BR/>Another 'for example': Abandon all this tree-hugging nonsense. Now I personally have made it clear that I think man-made global warming is imaginary, but even if I'm wrong, let's face it, no green-inclined voter is going to vote Tory anyway whatever you say, and by abandoning this position you help differentiate yourself from the others, which is what you want. So that change would not hurt and probably help votes at the GE: it would be seen as being more honest.<BR/><BR/>Then when you've sorted all that out, you have to get your new comprehensive,, coherent, policies before the electorate as soon as possible--because it will take every moment there is to sell them. There is no year or whatever to waste treading water, and every day longer you do tread water, the more it looks like you're just a vacuous PR man.<BR/><BR/>---<BR/><BR/>But then, looking back at the case of Thatcher/Major versus Kinnock, the sad truth is you're almost certain to loose anyway. If Brown really is charisma-free and policy-heavy, that's what'll swing it for him. People will have had their fill (for the time being) of charismatic PMs.<BR/><BR/>Sorry this is so long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159651877413727692006-09-30T22:31:00.000+01:002006-09-30T22:31:00.000+01:00Green policys are about sustainability as well as ...Green policys are about sustainability as well as climate change. We need to find wayts of the cities of the country to become sustainable, re need to reeducate about air travel. Make people understand plane flights withing the country are a waste of fuel, etc. Green polices can and will make the party electable. Just look at the local elections vote blue go green worked a treat. People forget the polls were even then yet on the night the results were anything but even.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159651457947346012006-09-30T22:24:00.000+01:002006-09-30T22:24:00.000+01:00The pols reflect that they dont know what DC stand...The pols reflect that they dont know what DC stands for. If it is a Tory version of New labour he will have no chance. We want less government less spending of our money and reduced taxes.simple.Johnny Norfolkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16900659617233793880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159650511246928252006-09-30T22:08:00.000+01:002006-09-30T22:08:00.000+01:00`Also if anyone else wants to moan about having gr...`Also if anyone else wants to moan about having green policys`<BR/><BR/>anonytwerp ...no its not me is it . The Conservative party has no Green Policies. Enviromental issues are to do with Industry in the developing world US petrol prices and un taxable air travel.<BR/>Not bikes and recycling ( This is called tidying up and is a different thing) . That David Cameron is well aware his `fresh initiatives ` are mood music tells you all you need to know about the level of glib cynicism in his camp.<BR/><BR/>Boris Johnson for one , a supposed courtier has admitted as much recently.Perhaps his antennae detect that patience is at breaking point and he is already looking for his cover storyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159650052857184302006-09-30T22:00:00.000+01:002006-09-30T22:00:00.000+01:00Well, that was another YouGov poll I wasn't involv...Well, that was another YouGov poll I wasn't involved in. I get 'survey alerts' which, ever since I updated my details to say I was a Tory voter, have had absolutely nothing to do with politics. This suggests they pick and choose their respondents carefully.<BR/><BR/>Skipful of salt springs to mind...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159649264257453412006-09-30T21:47:00.000+01:002006-09-30T21:47:00.000+01:00Who cares about opinion polls anyway ? The real qu...Who cares about opinion polls anyway ? The real question is who will be bothered to put a cross in a box on a piece of paper and feel it is anything but a pointless exercise rather like voting members off the board of a Plc when the fund managers are already squared ?<BR/><BR/>I will vote for my local MP because he is good............I could not vote for a political party as i think they are self-serving and ignoring the seething anger of the electorateAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159648722883228582006-09-30T21:38:00.000+01:002006-09-30T21:38:00.000+01:00Why say a policy when labour will nick it. Labour ...Why say a policy when labour will nick it. Labour just picked at the treads as we fell apart in the 90's. That is what we should be doing. Policy is for election campaigns and office. its about time we as a party ( not DC I thiunk he knows it) releasie were not in power we shouldnt act like we are, we have to act like a successful opposition and point out the faillings in the government. Also if anyone else wants to moan about having green policys they should leave the party as they have no understanding of 1 the party values and to the major issue of the 21st century.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159646827606718192006-09-30T21:07:00.000+01:002006-09-30T21:07:00.000+01:00Dave comes across as weak and self-obsessed. He c...Dave comes across as weak and self-obsessed. He comes across as having no interest in the voters or what they want. He courts the opinion of Westminster, not the country. He has no idea how to manage a home and bring up children on an average income. By which I mean, the great population of Britain are a foreign country to him.<BR/><BR/>I think he should be given another three months, and if he doesn't connect more, then he's not capable of improving and should be dumped.<BR/><BR/>He doesn't have to spell out exact policies or ideas for the socialists to pinch. He just has to give an indication that he understands the problems, discomforts and dissatisfaction that the average person experiences in Tony Blair's hellish Britain.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1159645550158588752006-09-30T20:45:00.001+01:002006-09-30T20:45:00.001+01:00I `m sorry but I have just read the line .`The su...I `m sorry but I have just read the line .`The substance is there... ram it down there throats.`<BR/>I am agog to know how it is that what I thought was the vapidity of David Cameron was in fact my own stupidity in failing to read his smoke signals. I wonder is this substance to be found in his `green` rubbish , his insults to Margaret Thatcher or his childish lies on tax , the issue that really matters most of all.<BR/>Is this not rather insulting to the large majority of Conservative activists who put up with him only out of necessity but are not available for throat ramming this weekend .<BR/><BR/>Where are the sycophants going to go when the tide turns as it will with economic pressure . The signs are all there if you look . Perhaps someone should `ram it down the throats ` of those who are clinging onto the coattails of apple cheeked Liberal Davy that their betrayal will not be forgotten……….. <BR/><BR/>Blimey that’s a bit strong , but still , do you mean to be so patronising ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com