A new Populus Poll is out tonight for The Times. It shows Gordon Brown has given Labour a four point bounce with Labour up to 37%, with the Tories down two on 34% and the LibDems up 1% on 18%.
Brown was reckoned to be a strong leader by 77% (up 14 points) and 57% saying that he has what it takes to be PM (up 16 points)
In contrast, 43% saw David Cameron as strong (up six points), while 37% said he had what it takes to make a good Prime Minister (up four points). Thirty one per cent said they would prefer Mr Cameron to Mr Brown as Prime Minister with 52% disagreeing.
Note: David Boothroyd rightly points out it is three point lead and a four point bounce. I stand corrected!
47 comments:
Great Britain needs another Hugh Dowding not another Tony Blair.
37-34=3 (?)
I would have thought Brown and his mob would have been seven or eight points further on ,whats happened to the so called bounce ,lets hope we don't screw this up and Brown gets further away.
All to play for then and they can`t blame mid term blues now .I feel encouraged.
Oly a 3% lead after such massive media focus, plus a token terrorist celebration of Brown's arrival.
Politicalbetting.com wondering about a 10% lead for Brown today.
Only 3%. That could be out by 1 or 2% as well. Possibly no real lead at all.
Interest rates rising.
Taxes up and up and up.
Public sector workers told to expect below inflation pay rises for three years.
Pensions hit by Brown's taxes.
Money talks louder than words.
Labour's economic advantage has gone.
Brown looks exhausted.
Plenty of NuLab coverage on TV, dead tree press and radio brings back a lead of Camoron and the Tories.
Am still bemused by Camoron's leadership, and continually wonder if he will survive the next few months. It does seem odd that he appears to let Broon off the hook time and time again. Broon's cabinet of all the talents, share a similar background of jobs from the non profit making, non wealth creating sectors, yet 'Dave' says nothing.
Swiss Des holds down two jobs, Defence and Scotland, and 'Dave says nothing; rather surprising given increased problems in Iraq, Afganistan. If the Tories do not make some progress in the by-elections, DC can pick up his P45 before the knives hit his back.
Plenty of NuLab coverage on TV, dead tree press and radio brings back a lead of 3% Camoron and the Tories.
Am still bemused by Camoron's leadership, and continually wonder if he will survive the next few months. It does seem odd that he appears to let Broon off the hook time and time again. Broon's cabinet of all the talents, share a similar background of jobs from the non profit making, non wealth creating sectors, yet 'Dave' says nothing.
Swiss Des holds down two jobs, Defence and Scotland, and 'Dave says nothing; rather surprising given increased problems in Iraq, Afganistan. If the Tories do not make some progress in the by-elections, DC can pick up his P45 before the knives hit his back.
If the Tories do not make some progress in the by-elections, DC can pick up his P45 before the knives hit his back.
Cameron is fireproof and will keep his job as long as Brown needs him.....
Brown is finished. If thats the best he can do with blanket coverage. When the economy slowws its all over.
Got a Mayor yet?
Scene One: Just off Harley Street.
Harressed nurse rushes into large, classically elegant room.
(Light BBC-style Highlands lilt)
'Doctor! It's No10 on the phone. They've run out of Lithium!'
Doctor looks up from substantial desk
(Classless 50-something Redbrick accent)
'What? Good God! Tell them I'll be over in 10 minutes...tell them to keep the PM calm until I get there....'
Got a Mayor yet?
The Arab misogynists and Jew-baiters have had their man running London for these past few years.....
A small bounce is no surprise. Brown is touting himself as the 'change'! Give the people credit - and Nrown enough rope, they will soon remeber who has been behind tghe scenes for the past ten years!
This gives Labour a 62 seat majority.
Bye-bye tories.
"Oly a 3% lead after such massive media focus, plus a token terrorist celebration of Brown's arrival."
More to the point Cameron couldn't build a large sustainable lead despite all the troubles of the government over the past couple of years .That's the real killer for the Tories, no one expected anyone to be putting buntings out when Brown become PM.The days of massive poll leads for Labour as a government are over, but they only need a modest lead to win an election.Cameron needs a large lead...a lead he has never had...
Brown bounce. Cameron collapse? Looks like Tony Lit will be heading back to his home in Chiswick after 19th July.
tapestry said...
Only a 3% lead after such massive media focus, plus a token terrorist celebration of Brown's arrival.
Yep only a 3% lead after ten years of Blair and the Tory press.Your doomed you know,doomed.
Adrian Yalland said...
A small bounce is no surprise.
Silly comment.But brief and for that I thank you.
Anonymous said...
This gives Labour a 62 seat majority.
That will do nicely thank you.
Once an election is called and the Labour machine starts rolling, Labour will unfortunately be 10 points ahead.
But it is good for something: we need Cameron out and a real Conservative in.
The Tory lovefest again in evidence, I see.
Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me!
And nobody has yet invoked Anne Winterton's helpful and comforting stiletto.
Fifteen more years said -Yep only a 3% lead after ten years of Blair and the Tory press.Your doomed you know,doomed.
Well after ten years of Brown really on domestic policy. Also ten years of the BBC running a non stop left bias. They have practically orgasmed over this old Commie and its bound to have an effect. This still means considerably more of the English are voting Conservative than Labour and if you add that to the current inequitable allocation of seats a Labour Government even on this crest would have no mandate .
The truth is it will not be sustained but my point is that the Left are in irreversibly and permanent decline in England and if the electoral process continues not to reflect this then you might wish to get out now rather than endure a catastrophic fag end of Brown that will do for you what the Major period did for us .
As Global Capitalism lists more and more out of dependency despite the best efforts of the Benefts trap and our mountainous taxation the Labour philosophy of big government and redistribution will fade further into irrelevance. Thus far the answer has been lies ,and bribery but there is a limit to that . Were the economic weather to turn inclement Labour could be finished forever.
David Boothroyd 9.37 PM
said...
37-34=3 (?)
The Populus survey of voting intentions a month ago showed Labour 33%. The survey a few days ago showed Labour 37%.
37-33=4
A 4 point bounce. Do you have a problem with arithmetic?
October General Election looks more likely by the hour me thinks.
Newmania said...
Fifteen more years said -Yep only a 3% lead after ten years of Blair and the Tory press.Your doomed you know,doomed.
Your argument is rubbish,but the spelling, punctuation and grammar are as always superb.I wish I'd had your education,mine down the pits at 15,piece of coal for breakfast, but you've heard it all before.Keep posting I enjoy your comments,never crude which I appreciate,and always very funny.
The scourge of the Tories is your insistence in advocating wishful thinking. 3% lead in the polls for Brown, is more than ample to secure a 60+ commons majority, yet still posters on this forum kid themselves into believing its just a blip. Twelve months ago DC was 10+ ahead in the polls. The local elections gave 11+ lead, and some polls put the Tories 14% ahead of Labour. Now here you are convincing yourselves that a 3% deficit in polls isn’t so bad... Sorry, but it a disaster. Brown has momentum, he is dictating the agenda, his party have their tails up. There will be an election in October, and Brown will secure a majority of between 50 and 70.
Adrian Yalland said...
A small bounce is no surprise. Brown is touting himself as the 'change'! Give the people credit - and Nrown enough rope, they will soon remeber who has been behind tghe scenes for the past ten years!
Spelling a little shaky fellow.Not what we expect on this blog you know.
Cameron's approach does not work:
1. Brown has taxed this country to pieces with direct and indirect taxes.
2. Services have never been as bad as now
3. Labour should be behind simply because they have governed the country for a long time
4. Noone really like Gordon Brown [especially not after ten years!] (though some have started to respect him now as the alternative is Cameron)
Either of these reasons (and a number more) ought to have given the Conservative Party a solid lead. The only explanation is that Cameron himself is the liability.
My first post! Can't help feeling that with the public broadcasting blanket coverage of the so called 'leadership election' - both Pm and DPM - I would have expected NULab to be way ahead. The beeb all but put up GB for sainthood!
My main concern isn't the polls but the distortion our public broadcasting causes in the election process - is there a need for it to be muzzled if it cannot be impartial?
A temporary bounce (hopefully), nothing compared to the bounce John Major enjoyed in 1990 when a double-figure lead for Labour was overturned.
"... when a double-figure lead for Labour was overturned."
Yeah, but this time we have the Kinnock.
"Cameron's approach does not work."
So his three right-wing predeceasors' approach did work?!
When the Tory policies start seeing the light, I think they'll be very appealing and the polls will start returning to where they were before Blair announced his departure date at Trimdon - when Labour got its worst rating for over 20 years. It's nonsense to suggest Labour and the Tories are too close.
Not in Scotland they're not:
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=1028702007
"Cameron's approach does not work."
So his three right-wing predeceasors' approach did work?!
No, 1) they became leaders too early and 2) at that time people loved Blair.
Jorgen, I would hardly describe Duncan Smith and Howard as people who became leaders too early - who else should have done it?
The Tories lost in 2001 and 2005 because their agenda was too right-wing. That's why they have to change. The same applied to Labour in the 1980s with their insanely left-wing agenda.
The Conservatives will not win the next election if they abandon the centre-ground. If they do, their poll ratings would be far worse.
What I meant was that if we had them in any order with Hague last, we would be laughing.
Not that I am sure Hague is the right person as he somehow seems to have changed due to outside interests. Today, I would prefer Davis.
Anyway, read the comments in Telegraph and you will know that Cameron has blown it.
An athletic race or any race is all about timing your effort. If you can pick the moment to pull ahead, when the conditions suit you, your opponents will hopefully slump in despair, and then you win because your opponents underperform their best.
Gordon Frown's gone for a big push and hoped to push Cameron down to very junior position. It hasn't worked. Frown's lead is almost non-existent.
Conservatives must now manage their morale better - or the strategy of demoralising your opponent might start to assist Frown.
Give Cameron two weeks to switch his act over to a Frown environment, and move on from the phoney Blair era of shifting sands, and Conservatives will pull ahead once more. It will be Cameron's turn to push forward.
S@@ the Telegraph with its ukippers.
Only 3 points for Brown ?
After 10 years, an illegal war, sleaze, taxes, PFI liabilities, pensions, etc....
Sounds like a result to me.
Cameroon is a liability, just as duncan smith and howard were. The tories have lost their soul, because they want to change for the sake of changing, and have lost sight of their principles.
"Votedave said...
A temporary bounce (hopefully), nothing compared to the bounce John Major enjoyed in 1990 when a double-figure lead for Labour was overturned."
all polls conducted before political weighting was introduced are meaningless.Anthony Wells on his excellent pollingreportuk correctly (in my opinion) assumed the Tories were probably always in the lead or barely behind in the early 1990s.A straight 'who will you vote for question' without any weighting by past vote/likelihood to vote, will always produce a substantial Labour lead. Brown would have a large double digit poll lead if polls were conducted in the same manner they were in 1990.
The fact is The Tories believed all the 'who would make the best PM' poll questions giving Cameron a large lead before Brown was even in the top job.A foolish and costly mistake.You had your open goal and Chris Waddled your chance out of the stadium.
"all polls conducted before political weighting was introduced are meaningless."
I wouldn't go that far in dismissing them. Polling methodology has improved, yes, but at least they gave us a general picture of the political situation. They pointed to the Falklands bounce from 1982-3 and were proved right. What you say doesn't alter the fact Major had a huge boost in late 1990.
If the BBC summary is anything to go by, McStalin Broon may even consider a proposition that 16 year olds should have the vote. It begs the question about the political maturity of 16 year olds for a start.
tapestry: S@@ the Telegraph with its ukippers.
Based on the comments in the Telegraph, the UKIP'ers are mainly a mix of libertarians and real Conservatives: they will return to the CP the day the leadership becomes Conservative (small state, low tax, immigration control etc). This said, I doubt many will trust Cameron any more, so it is not going to happen until he has gone.
A few are solely anti-EU and many of these will probably stay with UKIP.
Jorgen, like the unreformed Socialists who didn't like New Labour from 1994-1997, if there's any justice right-wing Tories will be coming back home at the General Election.
Elections are won on the centre-ground and if abandoned, centrist folk will be retreating to Labour and the LibDems, who are much greater in number.
Hopefully a much needed wake up call for Cameron and the Tories, who probably now regret picking a Blair clone, when the public quite seem to like dull and media clumsy, even when the perpetrator has robbed them blind for 10 years.
And whatever the true intention of the car bombers there was no greater gift to any incoming PM than to give them blanket media coverage and opportunity to look calm, tough and statesmanlike in their first weekend.
Brown has got himself established well so far. However the real battle starts now. I think a Tory theme on "Boundaries" and not letting them be broken would be a strong theme for them.
Any bounce favouring Brown is well within the margin for statistical error, in fact had there really been a bounce it would be reasonable to expect more.
The longer-term opinion poll trend is probably more indicitive of weakening support for Cameron than of a resurgence in Labour popularity, as amply demonstrated by some of the comments above.
This all means the forthcoming by-election results are becoming more significant by the day.
The battleground is in Ealing - a high level of symbolism will be attached to the question of whether either opposition party can break out of the battle for second place and mount a serious challenge to win the seat.
If Cameron fails to convince floating voters to swing towards him now and ends up relying on his rump support of core voters he will be fighting against the tide from here all the way in to the next GE.
Most of the comments here seem to have been posted by inhabitants of Cloud Cuckoo land.
It's all very well to whistle in the dark to keep your spirits up, but that cannot work on its own without some sort of basis in fact.
I've been pointing out for sine time that the Tory Party has been seriously underestimating Brown as PM.
If today's poll in the Times was an accurate reflection of voting in a GE, Labour would win with a absolute Commons majority of something like 130 to 160 seats, emulating 1997. The Tories and LibDems would also emulate their 1997 results. This is because of the huge bias towards Labour built into the existing FPTP system.
And of course, if the Tory and Labour share of the poll vote was reversed, the result would not be good enough to give the Tories an absolute majority--and in a hung parliament, you can bet the shirt on your back that the LibDems would never form a coalition with us. In any case, DC has never achieved the size of poll lead over Labour GB has already in this first week.
There are a lot of reasons to believe that DC has already peaked and GB is just getting warmed up. I'll save these reasons for another day.
Sufficient to say that if by the autumn the current positions remain or--more likely-- move farther towards GB, a GE with a Labour landslide and Tory decimation will swiftly follow.
I know GB of old. He is an election-winning machine, and has been planning his forthcoming triumph for years. I think he is a far more deadly opponent that TB at his best.
The question you ask now is: Can the Tories win the next GE?
The question you will be asking after that GE is going to be: Can the Tory Party survive?
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