Why I Tire of Portillo's Bitterness

Several people have asked for my views on Michael Portillo after his odious column in the Sunday Times today. I can do no better than point you towards THIS post from last year. It ends with these words...

Next time he appears on television and thinks about kicking the Conservative Party in the balls he should remember this. It was the Conservative Party that made him, not other way around. The least he owes it is some semblance of loyalty.

What gets me is that he castigates Cameron for following the very agenda which he himself espoused and alleges that Cameron is now about to abandon the progressive politics he has followed for the last 18 months. Did he not listen to Cameron's speech last Monday?

Portillo seems to be harbouring a real hatred for William Hague. Just look back at his articles and he can never bring himself to say anything good about him. I suppose it may be because Hague got the leadership in 1997 when Portillo thought it was his by right. Trouble was, he lost his seat.

I don't pretend to understand the psychology of Michael Portillo. All I know is that he has been disloyal to the last four Conservative leaders. It was too much to hope that his loyalty to this one would be any different.

I Spoke too Soon

Gordon has just blown it. Ignore the post below. He has announced that Harriet Harman will be the Chairman of the Labour Party, and even better, that Douglas Alexander will be the General Election cooordinator. Let's hope he can do in the whole country what he did for Scotland.

A Stormer of a Speech from Gordon Brown

Listening the Gordon Brown's speech I have to say that there was, well, something prime-ministerial about it. Much as I don't like to admit it, I wonder if he genuinely is acquiring that 'presence' that comes with the position. This afternoon he looked different. He looked smart. He sounded eloquent. At times he sounded inspirational. A lot of it was the same sort of generalistic mumbo-jumbo we have come to expect, but at times he raised his game. Now is not the time to judge Gordon Brown - we can do that in a few months time. But if the Conservatives didn't know they had a fight on before, they certainly do today - Harriet Harman, or no Harriet Harman.

Harriet Harman: Thank you, Thank you, Thank you

My cup runneth over. Harriet Harman has been elected Labour Party Deputy Leader. I do so hope Gordon Brown makes her Deputy Prime Minister. The sight of her ditching all the left wing positions she adopted during the last few weeks will be a joy to behold. It is, it has to be said, quite a remarkable political comeback from the woman who was sacked from Tony Blair's cabinet after a very short time for being completely incompetent. I do so look forward to her deputising for Gordon Brown at PMQs!

Sky News had a bit of egg on their faces this afternoon. They had been reporting for an hour that Alan Johnson had won and then just a few minutes before the result announcement their sources told them it was Harriet Harman. I don't know how News 24 were calling it but that's the peril of trying to get the story first, I suppose.

UPDATE: A reader alerts me to the fact that the Telegraph has had an Dewey moment HERE. I wonder how long the story will stay there.

A Welcome Present for Gordon Brown

On Wednesday, Tony Blair's last day in office and Gordon Brown's first, the Big Book of New Labour Sleaze will be published by Harriman House. It's about half as big again as the Little Book of New Labour Sleaze which was published just over a year ago. You can order a copy of the Big Book from Politico's for £8.49 HERE or from Amazon for £9.99 HERE.

Poll Has Bad News for LibDems and Tories

An Observer poll tomorrow will show a three point Labour lead. Labour has gone up to 39% while Conservative support has fallen to 36%. The Labour gains are at the expense of the LibDems who srop three points to 15%. Forty per cent believe Brown would make the best PM, compared to only 22% for David Cameron. Only 28% thought he was performing adequately, lower than Tony Blair on 33%. However, Cameron's net satisfaction rating of -5% was still better than Mr Blair's -27%. Sir Menzies Campbell's rating was -25%.

A bit of food for thought there! But in the words of Corporal Jones, 'Don't Panic'!!! Unless you;re a LibDem, of course... :)

Rawnsley on Blair on Channel 4

If you're not watching Andrew Rawnsley's account of the Blair years on Channel 4, switch it on. Now. And that's an order. It's compelling.

UPDATE: Rawnsley really understands Blair, who did not emerge from these two hour very well. If you missed this, make sure you catch the second part on Monday.

Who Will Gordon Pick?

Well, here's my prediction for Gordon Brown's first Cabinet. We'll soon know how accurate my guesses are.

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister: Alan Johnson
Chancellor: Alistair Darling
Home Secretary: John Denham
Foreign Secretary: Jack Straw
Education: Alan Johnson
Health: David Miliband
Transport: Stephen Timms
Trade & Industry: Ed Balls
Attorney General: Baroness Scotland
Communities & Local Government: Hazel Blears
Chairman of the Labour Party: Peter Hain
Chief Whip: Nick Brown
Environment: Hilary Benn
Justice: Liam Byrne
Work & Pensions: John Hutton
Leader of the House of Commons: Harriet Harman
DCMS: James Purnell
Northern Ireland: Geoff Hoon
Leader of the Lords: Neil Kinnock
International Development: Caroline Flint
Defence: Douglas Alexander
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Yvette Cooper
Social Exclusion & Cabinet Office: Jacqui Smith

Why Politicians Need to 'Keep it Real'

Like most people I haven't quite worked out the truth behind Gordon's overtures to the LibDems. Matthew Parris goes through the various motivations in his Times column today. Whatever the truth of it, one particular thought has struck me. This is yet further proof of Gordon Brown trying to be something he is patently not. Brown is one of the most party political and tribal men in politics today. In normal circumstances he would stab himself in the eye before wanting Tories or LibDems in his government.

This is just the latest example of Brown trying to prove he is something which we all know he isn't. This is a very dangerous trait in a politician. And it is a trait which will end in tears. Sir Ming Campbell has learned that the hard way. He acceded to his spin doctors' wishes and ended up indulging in ludicrous stunts aimed at making the LibDem leader young and energetic and was rightly pilloried for it. And it is still going on. Ming has worn glasses for years. He doesn't any more - in public, at any rate. There are countless other examples.

Ming Campbell and Gordon Brown will both live to regret trying to be something they are not. The public will always, in the end, see through it and punish them accordingly. That is why it is so vital that David Cameron never falls into this trap and 'keeps it real'.

Why David Cameron Must Campaign FOR a Referendum and not AGAINST Europe

Never one to undersell a story, EU Referendum's Richard North reckons that the result of the EU Summit is a coup d'etat in the making. His evidence is complicated but compelling. He concludes...

In this presidency conclusion, however, the European Union – as represented by the European Council – is seeking to dictate to the member states what it shall (and shall not) include in a treaty (the text of which it has defined), effectively barring it from discussing anything else. If the member states accept this, they are effectively conceding that they are subordinate to the European Union, thereby acknowledging that the Union is the supreme power.This would represent a fundamental change in the relationship between the member states and the European Union, one not brought about by treaty, but by an informal de facto arrangement emanating from the European Council- setting an extremely dangerous precedent.Thus, Gordon Brown's first challenge on becoming prime minister is not only to address the detail of the so-called "mandate", but to re-assert his right, as leader of a sovereign, independent nation, to decide on the terms of a treaty which will cede "competences" to the Union. He and his fellow heads of state and govenment, acting on mandate from their respective peoples, alone have the power to decide this.It is wholly unacceptable, he should tell the Union, that as a treaty organisation subordinate to the member states, it should attempt to usurp the power that belongs exclusively to the member states. In short, Gordon Brown's first task is to tell the European Union
who is boss.

Ben Brogan, who has been at the summit the whole time writes...

Meanwhile it will be up to Mr Brown to persuade us why this new treaty should not be put to a referendum. Yes, it secures us against the Charter (the key amendment says "for the avoidance of doubt, nothing in the Charter creates justiciable rights applicable to the UK"), but it also creates a permanent president of the Council of Ministers, a new EU foreign minister (although we can't call him that) and - crucially - cedes sovereignty in at least 52 other areas. According to the euro-wonks among us, that's more than Nice or Maastricht.

ConservativeHome reckons this outcome presents David Cameron with a unique opportunity and that he - not William Hague - should be at the forefront of a referndum campaign...

David Cameron, who has recently experienced some difficulties in his relationship with large sections of his grassroots, should seize this opportunity to reassert his leadership and regain some much-needed affection. He needs to adopt the attitude of The Sun and The Mail on this agenda. Today's Sun describes the proposed loss of British vetoes on "energy, agriculture and fisheries, transport, culture, tourism and even immigration policy" as a "shabby surrender of British power." The Mail's Ben Brogan notes that British powers are being lost in fifty-two areas. 52! This is not a time for William Hague to be (however ably) leading the Conservative attack on this
"shabby surrender". Forget Michael Portillo's advice that this issue will only encourage the Tory party's "wild-eyed" Eurosceptics. This is a great opportunity for Mr Cameron to champion the vast majority of British people who have had enough of the relentless drive towards a European superstate and the way the EU's politicians
ignore referendum results.

James Forsyth highlights a weakness in Labour's anti-referndum argument on the Spectator blog...

Margaret Beckett has been dismissing calls for a referendum by arguing that Britain is not a country that "governs by referendum" which begs the question as to why she was happy to run in 2005 on a manifesto that explicitly stated, “We will put it to the British people in a referendum”.

James might have also mentioned the Welsh, Scottish and North East referendums. Once the genie is out of the bottle... And if you really need proof as to why this so-called 'treaty' is a constitution by any other name, Open Europe have done the spadework HERE.

My view, for what it is worth, is that this is a massive tranfer of power and sovereignty to Brussels and ought to be resisted at all costs. I am glad the Conservative Party is remaining staunch n the need for a referendum. But this also provides a challenge for David Cameron. I agree with ConservativeHome's analysis that he ought to put himself at the front of a campaign for a referendum, but I want to emphasise the word FOR. Too many times the Conservative Party has been AGAINST things related to Europe without explaining what the alternative would be. It has appeared self interested, ideological and narrow. Even if the country agreed with must of what it was saying, the Party was stuck in a negative rut.

While campaigning FOR a referendum David Cameron must start to articulate what sort of Europe he wants to see and what kind of relationship this country should have with it. If he manages to do that, he'll reap the political rewards.

Gordon Brown's Ministry of All the Talents

Dear Gordon,

Your efforts to create a government of all the talents haven't got off to a good start, have they? To be honest, like many others, I am not sure that you were very serious anyway. But congratulations for causing such chaos among our mutual friends in the Liberal Democrats. Not a very nice thing to do to Ming, though, was it? But I see what you were playing at. What you want is that nice Nick Clegg to take over and appeal to southern Conservative voters. A bit transparent, though, wasn't it? Anyway, let's get to the point. If you really do want to create a government of all the talents, you could do worse than this lot... or perhaps a lot better!

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister: David Cameron
Chancellor: Ken Clarke
Home Secretary: David Davis
Foreign Secretary: Sir Menzies Campbell
Education: Lord Adonis
Health: Nick Clegg
Transport: The Chipmunk
Trade & Industry: George Osborne
Attorney General: Dominic Grieve
Local Government: Chris Huhne
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: William Hague
Chief Whip: Peter Kilfoyle
Environment: David Miliband
Justice: John Denham
Work & Pensions: David Laws
Leader of the House of Commons: Jack Straw
DCMS: Boris Johnson
Northern Ireland: David Trimble
Leader of the Lords: Baroness Shephard of Northwold
International Development: Hilary Benn
Defence: Alan Johnson
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Ed Balls

There are 10 Labour, 9 Conservative and 5 LibDems here. Obviously I have been a tad naughty with a few of them, but frankly, this lineup is going to be an improvement on whatever you come up with, isn't it?!

Yours Ever,

Iain

Fantasy Politics Day on Iain Dale's Diary

Today is Fantasy Politics Day on Iain Dale's Diary. Over the course of the day you'll be getting the following


Gordon Brown's Cabinet of All the Talents
My predicted Gordon Brown Cabinet
My predicted David Cameron Shadow Cabinet
My predicted Ming Campbell Line-up

And finally, If I were David Cameron...

So do check back regularly. There should be plenty to chew on. In the meantime, Michael White did something similar yesterday HERE. My predictions will not be quite so outlandish as his, though!

DD: The Right Need Not be Worried

Alice Thomson and Rachel Sylvester have an interview with David Davis in the Telegraph today. It was slightly less eventful than the last time they interviewed him - on the morning of 7 July 2005. I was his chief of staff at the time and had to constantly interrupt the interview with news of the tube bombings. As it dawned on us what was happening the interview was put on hold while DD swung into action. Alice and Rachel stayed in the room to observe what was going on. They wrote...

As we talk, people are constantly buzzing in and out. At one point, he tells his own Miss Moneypenny: "Get me D1, D2, D3 briefings on reactions to a terrorist attack." To an aide, he shouts: "Call X - he'll be at MI5," then tells us: "You didn't hear that. I know lots of spooks." The first occasion we meet DD, as he is known by his team, is on the morning of the terrorist attacks on London, and information is coming in all the time. Mr Davis admits that he likes a crisis. "Big occasions bring out the best in me," he says. "Life is a test, a thing you throw yourself at."

Anyway, enough of that. In the first part of today's interview DD talks about how William Hague and he have been deputed to reassure the Right...

The man who stood for the Right against Mr Cameron in the leadership contest now wants to keep the two sides together. "William Hague and I are the guarantors," he says. "If we think things are OK, most Tories will probably think they're OK, it is useful having William and I sitting either side of David." The Conservative leader's task until now has, Mr Davis says, been "decontamination, detox, all the phrases I hate. But he has to establish the right to be listened to. In doing that there are risks with your own base. You can be misunderstood, we are trying to explain the project to the grassroots."

Some activists, he admits, are grumpy. "You've inevitably got a group on the traditional Right of the party who are edgy. We all get green ink letters but if you meet the Tory party in the country you will find they're astoundingly normal. Frankly, they want to win. It doesn't matter that they're not trendy and they don't live in Notting Hill." He says the Conservative Party made its choice between two suitors during the leadership contest. "How much did Cameron beat me by? Let me remind you of that embarrassing fact: 66 to 32. If we had the poll tomorrow it would be the same. Of course there's nervousness. The honeymoon has switched to Brown and you can't have two simultaneous honeymoons, it doesn't work."The marriage,
he insists, is solid. Right-wing traditionalists "are a strand but they're a minority strand. I don't think they've been ignored too much ... David's got the formula that will win us the next election".

He then makes clear he thinks that then private equity sector is undertaxed...

The social mobility tsar also has his eye on the super-rich. "The cliché is David Beckham. No one argues or grumbles about his salary, his value is very visible. But private equity is harder," he says. The "peculiar tax regime" - under which some private equity millionaires pay only 10 per cent tax - should, in his view, be reconsidered. He thinks the Tory grassroots would be in favour. "My hunch on the ground is that they would agree this is a tax break too far. They care about fairness ... You need a morally stable society which is why it is important to look at their worth and to sit up when some of their own people are saying this is not right."
Too many politicians are "goggled-eyed" about wealth, he says. "I am not a great enthusiast for cuddling up to the rich ...Labour used to be for the many not the few, and that is what the Tories now are."

And the interview concludes with some reflections which might surprise some people. And before anyone asks, the gay friend he refers to below isn't me!

He agrees that "general well-being" is as important as GDP. "The Right-wingers
who don't care about flexibility at work have got to recognise that we've got a
big unused resource if women are tied up and not able to meet their full
potential."

He is socially liberal. "People think I'm traditional but I gave away a gay friend at his civil partnership ceremony the other day. In a perfect world everybody would understand absolutely what I stand for."His environmentalism is old-fashioned. "I'm not into windmills but I live in a house sitting by a pond in 17 acres of ground with 1,000 trees and hares and partridge and pheasants. It's my bit of England. If you came there you'd see what I really think about green issues. I love the countryside but I don't need to talk about it."

Although he does not wear Converse trainers like the youthful Cameroons, he says: "I can run faster than any of them." He was going tieless when Dave was still at school. "I hate the heat." But, unlike his younger colleagues, he feels uncomfortable with touchy feely politics. "I'm much more private than most politicians. I think if you want to be a political leader now you have to be more willing to open yourself up."

Does he think the right man won the Tory leadership? "Yes," he replies without hesitating. As the Conservatives' "guarantor" he thinks he has the perfect job. "You can scare yourself to death - whether in business, politics or climbing mountains - by being over-reflective about what went wrong. If the rope stops you before you hit the ground you walk away and you have another go."

Gordon Saves Britain! Or Does He?

Dizzy has a simply cynical brilliant analysis of the media handling of the EU summit. He reckons that Gordon Brown has been spinning like a top. Surely not. Read it HERE. If you have never read Dizzy before, do yourself a favour and put him on your Favourites list. He's on top form at the moment.

Another Rebuff for Gordon Brown

I should like to make it clear that I too would turn down a position in Gordon Brown's government. Just in case he was about to ask... The way he's going, it's only a matter of time!

If I were a Labour MP I would view this courting of known political opponents with complete horror. The only message it sends out is that he has a very low opinion of most of his colleagues in the House of Commons. Lord Stevens doesn't have a socialist bone in his body so I am not surprised he too has rebuffed Brown. But the news tonight that Lord Goldsmith will be standing down next week (he was unlikely to survive anyway) opens up yet another place round the Cabinet table. Let's look at how many new people are likely to join the Cabinet table next Thursday.

Home Secretary: John Reid - Going
Foreign Secretary: Margaret Beckett - Possibly going
DEFRA: David Miliband - Promotion
Attorney General - Lord Goldsmith - Going
Justice - Lord Falconer - Almost certainly going
Health - Patricia Hewitt - Almost certainly going
Education - Alan Johnson - Staying put
Trade - Alistair Darling - Promotion
Chief Secretary - Stephen Timms - Promotion
Communities - Ruth Kelly - Unclear
DFID - Hilary Benn - Promotion
Leader of the House - Jack Straw - Promotion
Labour Party Chairman - Hazel Blears - Move
Duchy of Lancaster - Hilary Armstrong - Going
Leader of the Lords - Baroness Amost - Probably Going
Work & Pensions - John Hutton - Unclear
Defence - Des Browne - Probably Going
Chief Whip - Jacqui Smith - Promotion
Wales & N Ireland - Peter Hain - Looks to be at risk
DCMS - TessaJowell
Transport - Douglas Alexander - Promotion

The clear message here is that there will be very few people staying put in their current jobs, which may ironically save Ruth Kelly and Des Browne. Altogether there are likely to be at least eight new members of the Cabinet. Tomorrow I will be looking at the likely runners and riders.

Not Me, Guv

Today I received a letter from Mr Clarke of Nottingham. It read...

Mr Dale, Re your housing article in the Sunday Telegraph. What about the
English countryside? You can't allow free market completely, surely? I
sometimes think we will concrete over as much as Prescott.

Now, firstly, I have never written an article for the Sunday Telegraph, and secondly, I have never written an article on housing for anyone. I can only think he is confusing me with someone else. But who? Over to you, dear reader.

Any Just Cause or Impediment....

Hattip Theo Spark

EXCLUSIVE: Brown to Sugar - You're Hired!

Having dismissed the Paddy Ashdown rumour out of hand on Tuesday and therefore not written about it, I'm not about to make that same mistake again, so here's the latest totally unbelievable Brown Cabinet rumour doing the rounds...

In his seemingly never ending quest to prove that he has a distinct lack of talent among his own benches, Gordon Brown is, I can reveal, seriously considering offering Sir Alan Sugar a job in his government. He would be made a Peer and either join Brown's Cabinet or made Skills Czar.

Obviously this proves that Brown wants nothing to do with a culture of celebrity, doesn't it? Yup, no spin at all.

UPDATE: I have just re-read this and it does read a little bit like a spoof. It really isn't. I am assured this really is on the cards!

Join the 'Readers of Iain Dale's Diary' Facebook Group

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Telegraph Column: Cameron's Reshuffle

By this time next week Gordon Brown will have restructured Whitehall and formed his first Cabinet. David Cameron will then rejig his team once he knows who his opponents are. Brown's reshuffle is likely to be radical, with almost half the existing Blair Cabinet expected to retire gracefully or be kicked out of Number 10 screaming.

Cameron hates reshuffles, believing that moving people every year creates disharmony, instability and bad policy. His priority in responding to Brown's team will be to put round pegs in round holes. Cameron's instinct is not to radically alter the look of his team, but only to make changes that are forced by Brown's appointments. Cameron knows, though, that some surprises from Brown might force him to be more radical than he is inclined to be.

William Hague, David Davis and George Osborne will all stay put. In Hague's and Davis's case, any attempt to move them could have dire consequences. Hague loves his current job and has no desire to take on the shadow chancellorship or the party chairmanship. Davis has been the shadow cabinet's most effective media performer at Home Affairs and would not take kindly to being moved.

The only top job where there could be a move is the party chairmanship. After only two years, Francis Maude is the longest-serving chairman since Lord Thorneycroft. He has acted as a lightning rod for Cameron and his internal party reforms are coming to fruition.

Whether he is moved largely depends on whether Cameron wants a chairman who will look after the party organisation, or a rottweiler who will spend most of his time attacking Labour. There is much speculation that Chris Grayling is being groomed for the role. If Maude is dispatched, he would be justified in feeling aggrieved. A lot of what he has done at Conservative HQ is below the radar and only starting to emerge after some serious long-term planning.

Last month there was much speculation that Liam Fox was destined for the chop. He was felt by people around Cameron to have under-performed in his defence portfolio. But the reaction from the party's grassroots to an article in the Sunday Telegraph, predicting his demise, together with an upswing in his attitude, seems to have saved the day.

Another unresolved area is what to do about the Ministry of Justice. Many think David Davis should continue to shadow both Home Affairs and the new ministry, but it is important to reflect the structure of government, and I would expect Cameron to make an overdue promotion and ask shadow attorney general Dominic Grieve to take on the role.

Brown is expected to beef up the Department of Trade and Industry, giving it the digital switchover from the Department for Culture, Media and Sport and much of the Department for Education's employment brief. This should keep Ed Balls busy, but it might not be enough to satisfy Alan Duncan's craving for a top job. Duncan is becoming one of the party's star performers on TV and he rightly feels better use should be made of him.

There is much speculation about the future of David Willetts. It would be cruel to sack him for doing his leader's bidding, but the hot rumour of the week is that he will be moved rather than fired, and be replaced by Michael Gove. This would make sense if Brown keeps Alan Johnson at education. Willetts performs best when he has an opponent who does not have attack-dog tendencies, and Johnson most certainly does.

Many Conservatives believe that if the party is serious about preparing for government, Cameron should bring in a few greybeards with experience. I'm told they will be disappointed. Cameron believes the only way to fight Brown's Cabinet of new faces is to freshen up his own team with some young, energetic members of the class of 2005. Gove is one, Ed Vaizey might be another and Maria Miller could be the third.

Whoever Cameron promotes, it is his intention to avoid further reshuffles before the election unless events dictate otherwise. This will be his team for government.

Click HERE to read the Telegraph readers' reaction to my article.