The Daley Dozen: Friday

1. Pete Hoskin says the Tories are getting hard.
2. Dizzy has a great spot in the continuing political class wars.
3. Calum Cashley thinks Edinburgh LibDems are in a spot of trouble.
4. Jack Straw defends faith schools on Blackburn Labour.
5. Guido has a right old ding dong with Labour MP Kevin Barron on Sky News.
6. Tim Worstall thinks Johann Hari should check his facts.
7. Biteback Publishing unveils its new political book titles.
8. Danny Finkelstein on why MPs' expenses matter.
9. Tom Harris wonders why West Sussex County Council have got a bit touchy.
10. Douglas Carswell wonders if the Left secretly hates the internet.
11. Cranmer says Christianity has been demoted by the political classes.
12. John Redwood says cutting spending is technically very easy.

And Tory Radio has an exclusive interview with everybody's chum, Eric Pickles HERE.

Major Defence Cuts Are On the Way

Cathy Newman on Channel 4 News is about to break the news that major defence cuts are on the way. They will be announced next week, including the closure of at latest one RAF base and a scaling back of the British base in Cyprus. The cuts should have been announced in the PBR this week but the MoD couldn't agree the details in time.

According to Channel 4 News...

The cuts have been caused by a six billion pound overspend, mainly on the procurement of new aircraft, submarines and ships. A senior official at the MOD told the programme that the department was in 'real financial trouble.' As well as the closure of an RAF base and the Cyprus reduction, Channel 4 News understands there will also be cuts in IT, human resources and back office functions, and more controversially the MOD Police. Senior Whitehall sources have admitted to Channel 4 News that the futures of the Navy's two new aircraft carriers and the A400M aircraft are in doubt. Defence could face cuts of up to 16% over three years because of the government's decision to half the deficit.

If all this is true, this could dominate the news over the next few days.

Cost of Insuring British Govt Debt Rises by 1000% in 2 Years

Irwin Steltzer has a chilling article in this week's Spectator, which shows just how much confidence has been lost in Britain's ability to repay its debt.

The Wall Street Journal reports that two years ago it cost $5,000 per year to insure $10 million of British government debt against default for three years. It now costs $52,000 to buy such insurance — and $72,000 to cover that risk for five years. That is $30,000 more than it costs to insure BP’s debt, and $50,000 more than to insure Germany’s. So the markets think it is more likely that UK plc will default than BP plc. Or McDonald’s. Or Gap.

That means the markets think Britain is three times more likely to default on its debt than Germany. And the cost of insuring our debt has risen by 1000% in two years. At least we're leading Europe on one measure...

Brown Blows Another £500 Million

In his unconscious quest to lead Britain to bankruptcy, Gordon Brown has just blown another £500 million a year. This morning in Brussels he committed this country to giving poor countries £500 million a year to cushion the effects of countering climate change. This amounts to 27% of the total EU contribution, a figure the French are matching. But why are we contributing more than our fair share at a time when our debt is spiralling out of control?

Yet again Gordon Brown has proved to be a soft touch in international negotiations.

His first priority now should be to get our public finances in order. Nothing else matters in the short term.

Why Aren't Tories Doing Better in Council By-Elections?

Jonathan Isaby has posted last night's local election results on ConservativeHome and described them as "disappointing". Indeed. Ok, you might think, what do a the results of a few council by-elections matter? And in some ways you'd be right. But these results are not isolated. There have been many similar results over the last few weeks. Invariably, Conservative vote shares are down and the party seems to be losing more seats in by-elections than it gains. Clearly, there can be peculiar local circumstances at play, but in seats like Wyre Forest, Tavistock and Weymouth & Portland (all parliamentary marginals), the Conservative should be gaining seats not losing them.

Anyone got any light to shed?

BBC Poll Shows Tories Are Trusted on Economy

The Daily Politics will be worth watching today at noon.

The programme will publish the results of a poll which shows that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are less trusted to steer Britain's economy through the current downturn than David Cameron and George Osborne. The poll was conducted by ComRes following Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report on Wednesday.

33% of those polled said they trusted David Cameron and George Osborne most to steer Britain's economy through the current downturn compared with 26% saying they trusted Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, a lead of 7% for David Cameron and George Osborne. In a similar poll conducted in April this year Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling had a lead of 3%.

The Liberal Democrats recorded their highest rating yet to this poll question with 16% of those questioned saying they trusted Nick Clegg and Vince Cable most. This compares with the April figure of 10%.

In the same poll 39% agreed with the statement that if the economy started to grow again before the next election it will be due mainly to the rescue package put in place by the government. This compares with 50% who disagreed with this statement.

That 39% figure is actually higher than I would have thought and will provide a crumb of comfort for Labour, but the turnaround in the headline figures of who is more trusted to run the economy will be very worrying for them.

UPDATE: The Times had a Populus poll this morning on a similar theme. "Nonetheless, overall trust in the Cameron/Osborne team to manage the economy has risen by five points since October to 46 per cent, the highest level since the question was first asked in August 2007. The Gordon Brown/Alistair Darling team has also improved by four points to 32 per cent, but now lags a record 14 points behind."

Stuart Hall: A Knockout

This is one of those rare occasions where I am cross posting from my West Ham blog.

Last night Radio 5 Live broadcast a fantastic two hour long programme as a tribute to one of the greatest broadcasters who has ever lived - Stuart Hall. Unbelievably, Stuart will be 80 on Christmas Day, yet is still going strong. His football reports every week are a joy to listen to, even if you know nothing about football, and he is still a regular on BBC TV in the North West.

Those of you who are of my vintage will have first come across Stuart as the presenter of IT'S A KNOCKOUT. His trademark laugh always had me in stitches. He was a bit like Tommy Cooper. You just had to look at him and you'd smile.

I met Stuart once and he is exactly the same in real life as he is on the radio - hugely entertaining and a genuinely nice guy. In my view Stuart is one of the greatest cross-medium broadcasters of the last fifty years and it was great to hear 5 Live pay tribute to him. He deserved it.

If you missed the programme last night, click HERE to listen to it on the iPlayer. I promise you, you won't regret it.

The Daley Dozen: Thursday

1. Heresy Corner on why Britain is turning into Poundland.
2. Tory Politico on the dangers to Britain's AAA rating.
3. Mark Reckons interviews Esther Rantzen. Cyril.
4. Tom Harris in Harriet Harman is wrong shocker.
5. Adam Boulton on how the EU is banning Foreign Ministers.
6. Liberal Conspiracy nominates the most bigoted candidate in Britain.
7. Danny Finkelstein says Liam Byrne for Labour leader!
8. Kerry McCarthy on twittering.
9. Walaa Idris on a not so special relationship.
10. Glyn Davies says he's not the bloody same as Lembit. So there.
11. Constantly Furious on the luck of the Irish.
12. Charlotte Gore is naughty and nice.

Gordon Thinks He Deserves a Medal

The question on most people's lips after watching that will be this: what on earth was he doing claiming £500 for repainting a summer house in the first place? And he seems to think he merits a medal because he volunteered to pay it back!

Gordon Brown is not alone in putting in claims for this sort of thing. Many MPs across the House have done the same. But I say again: what on earth went through their minds when they thought, yup, this is something the taxpaper should fork out for? Ah, they say, but the rules said it was OK.

That's not an explanation the electorate is ready to accept.

Shaun Bailey: The Movie

Shaun Bailey is the Conservative Candidate for Hammersmith & Shepherds Bush, a key marginal seat. He's made this excellent video, which shows what an excellent local candidate he is. It's a bit too long for my liking - I wonder how many people will sit down for eight and a half minutes and watch it to the end, but it's a superbly produced video and he comes across as a man who genuinely cares about the area he hopes to represent.

Shaun has also just joined Twitter. You can follow him HERE.

Paying for the PM's Servant

So our Prime Minister claimed nearly £2,000 for 'domestic servants' at his second home in Fife in the 2008-9 tax year. Pardon me for saying it, but isn't this something more associated with those who were educated on the playing fields of Eton? Still, nothing's too good for the workers.

Sadly I have been beavering away at work all day, so haven't managed to follow the expenses revelations as closely as I would have wished. But am I right in thinking that Quentin Davies has a problem with his bell end? [shurely shome mishtake, Ed]. Couldn't happen to a nice man. You can get cream for it you know. Well, of course, I don't know. It's, er, ahem, just something I have heard.

I'll get my coat.

Darling's Sleight of Hand Unravels

I have rarely seen a budget or PBR unravel so quickly and be received so badly by virtually every conceivable audience. It's not surprising that very few Labour MPs were in the chamber to hear the PBR - and very few have been out on the airwaves defending it. I am not surprised.

How can you put up child benefit 6 months before an election and then say you will cut it afterwards? They really think people are stupid, don't they? Alistair Darling has now denied that is the case.

He also says that NHS is ringfenced from cuts and yet the NI increase leaves it with a bill of an extra £446 million. Where is that money to be found?

Darling said on TODAY this morning that the non ringfenced departments' budgets would be "broadly flat" in the years after 2011. So, how, exactly, does he intend to cut borrowing by half? The answer is that he intends to do it by the extra tax proceeds which will be raised by the economy growing at 3.5% a year. The only trouble with that hypothesis that no serious economist agrees with the Chancellor that growth will be at that level. Indeed, you don't have to look too hard to find economists who believe there will be very little growth at all.

Guido is right. The PBR the British Chancellor should have delivered, was delivered yesterday in Dublin. Hopefully George Osborne is studying it in great detail.

Keith Simpson's Christmas Reading List

In this age of austerity selecting a good book to read over the Christmas recess is both value for money as well as virtuous. This selection of books is mainly ones published since the summer with the addition of a few golden oldies.

The Foreign Office is rather sensitive about diplomats writing “kiss and tell” books. Our former ambassador in Washington during the Blair Years was Sir Christopher Meyer, and in his book DC Confidential (2005), he criticised the whole Blairite approach to foreign policy and the special relationship. Now in Getting Our Way 500 Years of Adventure and Intrigue : The Inside Story of British Diplomacy, Meyer takes nine episodes in British diplomatic history and considers them against the three pillars of our national interest – security, prosperity and values. This is the book of the TV series to be shown in the New Year. It is very much a Palmerstonian interpretation of British foreign policy and should be read by the Conservative Shadow Foreign Affairs Team.

In British Foreign Secretaries in an Uncertain World 1919-1939 (2009), Michael Hughes examines the careers of each of the interwar foreign secretaries examining how they approached their role and how influential the Foreign Office was under each foreign secretary in determining British foreign policy.

Can a guide to diplomatic practice written in 1917 still be of value and relevant today? Yes, because it has been regularly updated – this is the sixth edition – and is well worth having as a work of reference. Sir Ivor Roberts is the editor of Satow’s Diplomatic Practice originally written by Sir Ernest Satow (1843-1929) who in his retirement distilled his experience into a diplomatic guide which remains the most widely used in embassies around the world. Well worth dipping into for descriptions of how diplomacy is structured and organised, with advice to diplomats to “listen more than you talk; stay calm in every circumstance; and don’t show off that you are privy to secrets”. At a price of £110 this will be a book read via the House of Commons library rather than purchased.

The British Security Services, known as MI5, were until recently, a deniable organisation and surrounded by myths. Quite rightly a decision was made to appoint Professor Christopher Andrew, the doyen of intelligence historians, to write what is for all intents and purposes the official history. In Defence of the Realm The Authorised History of MI5, Andrew has had access to their archives and has written a fascinating account of an organisation that has changed dramatically over the past decades.

Between 1993 and 2001, the American academic Taylor Branch, interviewed Bill Clinton seventy-eight times. The President’s side of those conversations formed the basis of his own memoir whilst Branch, immediately after each session, recorded his take not only on the content of their conversations but on Clinton’s demeanour and mood. In The Clinton Tapes Wrestling History in the White House, Branch talked Clinton through foreign, domestic as well as personal crises.

Manuel Castells is an academic sociologist who commutes between Spain and the USA and who has published books and articles on the communications revolution. In Communication Power he argues that the media have become the space where power strategies are now played out through the internet and mobile communications. This is changing the balance of power between individuals, institutions and the state. He illustrates his thesis with case studies ranging from how China and Russia attempt to control information to internet based political campaigning such as Obama conducted in the Presidential Campaign.

Using history to support analysis of contemporary issues is not new. The strategic analyst Edward Luttwak turned his doctoral thesis into The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire in 1976. He argued that the Romans successfully moved from a forward linear defence to a mobile defence in depth. Leaving aside the question of whether there ever was a Grand Strategy for the whole of the Roman Empire, Luttwak’s book provoked a stimulating debate amongst scholars of Ancient history as well as a framework for a NATO debate which looked to flexible mobile defence to counter a more powerful Warsaw Pact. Now he has finally published a kind of sequel in The Grand Strategy of the Byzantine Empire in which he argues that the Byzantine Empire outlasted its Western Counterpart by almost a millennium. Luttwak concludes this was because the Byzantines understood a strategy that combined political, economic, military and diplomatic skills. They were skilful negotiators but even more skilful manipulators, adept at pitting opponents against one another. Once again he has written a scholarly book with a theme that seems relevant to an Obama administration faced with serious challenges and powerful rivals.

Tim Bale's The Conservative Party From Thatcher to Cameron is a good guide to what happened to the Tories over the past fifteen years. More narrative than analysis it is a timely reminder on what happens to a political party that has become arrogant in government and turns inwards on itself before coming to its senses under a new leader.

Alistair Cooke has for some time been the historian emeritus of the Conservative Party. A former deputy director of the Conservative Research Department, he has now edited Tory Policy Making The Conservative Research Department 1929 -2009. A series of essays many of them by former members of the CRD including David Cameron. In its Golden Age, from 1945 until the late 1970s it produced original research and more recently has concentrated on policy. In the works of Oliver Letwin the current Chairman, “if names were chosen for accuracy rather than continuity, we would call the CRD not the Research Department but the Analysis Department”.

British interest in the Napoleonic wars is usually restricted to Nelson and Wellington with insufficient attention paid to the war in the east. Napoleon’s disastrous campaign in Russia is looked at from the Russian perspective in Dominic Lieven’s Russia Against Napoleon, The Battle for Europe 1807-1814.

Although the origins of the First World War is a well trodden historical path, Miranda Carter has written an engaging account in The Three Emperors Three Cousins, three empires and the road to World War One.

The impact of the First World War on society, specifically the sheer number of casualties, including those from Spanish flu, is addressed by Juliet Nicolson in The Great Silence : 1918-1920 Living in the Shadow of the Great War. Today we are concerned about how families are affected by casualties from Afghanistan and this book is a timely reminder of an earlier and more horrendous conflict.

The Oxford academic Robert Service has written several acclaimed biographies including Lenin and Stalin. His Trotsky A Biography, is the first full biography of Trotsky in English for over fifty years. He demolishes the myth that Trotsky was the pure and idealistic counterpart to the evil Stalin.

In the category of “Boys Own” stories that of Freddy Spencer Chapman must be one of the best. An explorer and naturalist he had travelled in the Arctic and the Far East before the Second World War. After the fall of Singapore in 1942 he led stay behind parties in Malaya and worked with Chinese communist guerrillas against the Japanese. His hardness and sheer endurance is the theme of Brian Moynihan Jungle Soldier The True Story of Freddy Spencer Chapman.

Is it possible to write anything original about Churchill in the Second World War? Max Hastings has done so and in Finest Years Churchill as Warlord 1940-45, shows Churchill with all his strengths and weaknesses. This book compliments Andrew Roberts Masters and Commanders and should be compulsory reading for Shadow Ministers needing to learn about relations between politicians and senior military officers.

Afghanistan still dominates a lot of political discourse and there has been a plethora of books about the military aspects of the conflict. Now available in paperback is David Loyn Butcher and Bolt Two Hundred Years of Foreign Engagement in Afghanistan which is an excellent introduction to the modern period. John Ure’s Shooting Leave Spying and Central Asia in the Great Game examines some of the colourful British personalities who operated in Afghanistan.

The significance of China as a world power is beyond question and Martin Jacques convincingly argues in his latest book When China Rules the World The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World that the rise of China, India and other Asian powers means that, for the first time, modernity will no longer be exclusively western. China is a “civilisation-state” whose characteristics, attitudes and values long predate its existence as a nation state, and its rapidly growing power will mean it will change much more than the world’s geo-politics.

Much of what is written about modern Iran is from a western perspective. The Persians Ancient, Medieval and Modern Iran is an authoritative and comprehensive history written by a distinguished Oxford academic, Homa Katouzian, who writes from an Iranian rather than a Western perspective, integrating the cultural, literary, historical, political and social elements.

A golden oldie well worth reading is Mark Allen Arabs (2006). The author was a career diplomat and senior member of SIS with a deep knowledge and understanding of Arabs. His book acknowledges the many different identities within the Arab world and discusses the importance of family, religion and Arab values.

If Allen’s book is a useful introduction Eugene Rogan The Arabs A History is a substantial study of modern Arab history. Rogan documents the humiliations suffered by Arabs not only from outsiders and non-Arabs, but also from their own Arab rules and would be leaders. One excellent feature of this book is the use of Arab accounts to give an impression of how the Arabs have experienced their own history.

Finally, there are a number of “stocking fillers” which make admirable presents for family and friends or could be placed in the downstairs loo. The magnificently bewhiskered Senior Clerk in the House of Commons, Mr Robert Rogers, has written Order! Order! A Parliamentary Miscellany which is a wonderful selection of facts, quotations and anecdotes about parliamentary and parliamentarians including one of my favourites, “Walder’s Law”. David Walder was a Conservative MP until his death in 1978 and a prolific writer of novels and history books. His law was that the first three people to speak at a meeting of the Conservative 1922 Committee on any subject whatever were mad.

Frank Johnson was a parliamentary and political journalilst as well as a much respected sketch writer. His widow has now compiled and edited Best Seat in the House The Wit and Parliamentary Chronicles of Frank Johnson.

Many Beard is Professor of Classics at Cambridge University, author of books such as The Roman Triumph (2007) and Pompeii The Life of a Roman Town (2008). She is Classics editor of the Times Literary Supplement and author of the blog ‘A Don’s Life’. Some of her blog entries along with readers comments she has now edited into an entertaining paperback A Don’s Life which ranges over university life, politics, culture and peppered with classical analogies and quotations. On Roman humour she repeats the joke of the man who went to have his hair cut and the barber asked him “How would you like it cut?” He replied “In silence”. I had always assumed this story was associated with one of my very senior and at times short tempered parliamentary colleagues – but then he did have a classical and legal education.

Keith Simpson MP
Shadow Foreign Office Minister.

The Daley Dozen: Wednesday

1. Iain Martin thinks the election is set for March 25th.
2. Clive Davis on Churchill's lack of blood, sweat and tears.
3. Lord Lucas on using animals as bombs. Really.
4. John Moss wants to know if The Speaker will act on the PBR leak.
5. Mrs Rigby on the global cooling debate.
6. Calum Cashley on a poll which brings good news for the SNP.
7. Party Lines interviews the ASI's Tom Clougherty.
8. Party Lines reviews Sky's unplugged PBR coverage.
9. Paul Waugh on the 'spend now, pain later' PBR.
10. Neil O'Brien identifies a whole bunch of 'Brownies'.
11. LibDem Voice reviews British Electoral Facts.
12. Cicero's Songs says the size of the public sector is unsustainable.

Rent

So, I get this invitation....

I wonder if you might be willing to give the after-dinner speech at our client Christmas lunch at xxxxxx next xxxxxxx? The idea was that we get a Conservative PPC to speak, but, should you be willing, I feel you would fit the bill even better. We are a Public Affairs consultancy specialising in xxxxxx issues. At present, our clients' main concern is what a Conservative government would mean for the industry. The intention at the Christmas lunch, rather than strictly talking shop, is to have a more general, entertaining and sparky speech with a Conservative twist.

Anyway, unfortunately we can't offer a fee, but there will of course be complimentary christmas lunch and drinks in the rather splendid setting of xxxxxx.

Now, let's set you a multiple choice test. Do you think my answer was along the lines of...

a) Thanks so much for your kind invitation. Of course I would love to give your clients the benefit of my wisdom for the price of a slice of roast turkey and a mince pie.

or

b) So, er, you are inviting your commercial clients to a lunch. These clients pay you money for insight into the Conservative Party. You get a fee but I don't. How does that work, exactly?

What would you have said?

There are plenty of people out there who will bear testament to the fact that I often don't charge for speaking (I never charge charities, Tory Party events etc, for example). But in the end we all have to earn a crust and if you're a commercial organisation and want to book me to speak I am afraid a fee is chargeable. And the very charming Daniel Rix at Specialist Speakers will be happy to talk to you about it!

A Position of Strength? LOL

Well, I wasn't wrong in my predictions in the previous post, was I? John Pienaar called this a very political PBR and he was right. Darling tried to hide the bad while making the most of what little good news he had to offer. Come to think of it, I can't think what that was. He had a cheek in his reply to Osborne on two counts. First of all he accused Osborne of not mentioning growth, when that was clearly wrong. Secondly he accused Osborne of ignoring unemployment - this from a Chancellor who has now twice put up national insurance - a sure fire way of destroying new jobs if ever there was one. As Maggie Craig, the ABI’s acting Director General, said:

While we welcome the commitment to the role of the financial services industry in restoring growth and employment, as an employer of over 300,000 people the insurance industry is disappointed at the increase in national insurance rates which is a tax on employment.

It will be interesting to see what the voters make of this PBR. I suspect they will see through it and view it as a typical bit of pre-election chicanery.

And they will treat with derision the Chancellor's assertion that he was operating "from a position of strength".

The Six for Spelthorne

The six finalists for Spelthorne are...

Katy Bourne (finalist in Central Suffolk)
Philippa Broom (Spelthorne councillor)
Therese Coffey (finalist in SW Norfolk, SE Euro candidate in 2009)
Lynne Hack (finalist in Beckenham)
Michael McManus (Stood in Watford in 2001)
Kwasi Kwarteng (finalist in Sleaford)

And no, I didn't apply for this seat!

What Can We Expect From the PBR?

I'm not going to be around for much of the rest of the day to comment on PMQs or the Pre Budget Report as I am just about to leave the office to attend a book sales conference in Berkshire. Hell and damnation.

However, before I go, let me offer a few thoughts on what Alistair Darling is likely to serve up for us later. I wish I could say that I believe he will put the economic interest of the country first. But I can't. I wish I could say that I believe he will put the national interest first, but I can't. This Pre Budget Report will be deeply political and have more than half an eye on the coming general election. And we should all ask: is this the Chancellor's Pre Budget Report or the Prime Minister's?

The thrust of the Chancellor's proposals, it seems from the pre-briefing, is to make a headline of a tax on bankers' bonuses. As if that is the major problem facing the nation. It isn't. Yes, I too find it galling that many of them seem intent on taking huge bonuses when they are part of failing, partially state-owned, institutions. if Darling is going to do anything about this he shouldn't be creating new windfall taxes, he should be using the government's controlling stake in RBS and Lloyds TSB to insist that the bonuses don't go ahead. He may make headlines and even receive public support - and even possibly the support of the Opposition - but it's just a figleaf to mask the impending debt crisis which this country faces.

If Darling was taking seriously the need to cut government borrowing and in turn public spending, he would be instituting massive cuts immediately, rather than wait until 2011, coincidentally after an election has taken place. He would also not be ruling out spending cuts in education, health and the police. The public know that drastic action has got to be taken, and taken now. They see countless examples of government programmes which could easily be cut - some with less pain than others. And yet the government still sends out the message that it can be done without any real heartache. It can't.

They use the argument that is you turn off the spending tap now, you risk the recovery. Er, what recovery? We are still mired in recession. The fiscal stimulus hasn't worked. I see no sign of growth in the new year either. The VAT rise will depress things and until confidence returns, entrepreneurs will not invest.

The international money markets will be watching this PBR in a hawk like fashion. They will be looking for signs that the government isn't serious. And if they spot any such signs we will be a step further to losing our AAA credit status. And if that happens, the cost of borrowing goes up and its availability diminishes. And so we get into a deep spiral of having to cut spending even firther to service increased levels of interest payments. That is the doomsday scenario, but if Alistair Darling isn't careful, it's where we are heading. And I take no pleasure in saying that whasoever.

That Thierry Henry Handball Explained

The Daley Dozen: Tuesday

1. Working Class Tory doesn't think much of the "Independent" candidate in Salford who has dubbed the new Tory candidate, Matthew Sefton a "homosexual pervert".
2. Mark Reckons David Cameron has got it wrong over Lisbon and UKIP.
3. Ragbag on the scarf of convenience.
4. Tory Politico says Britain's AAA ratings are weakening.
5. Diary of a Geek has a solution to climate change.
6. Sunder Katwala says Nadine has been "unbanned".
7. Party Lines on Peter Mandelson's misspeak.
8. Red Box on the Labour MPs who have given up.
9. Jennie Rigg finds that Tom Harris and Mark Reckons make her angry. Mind you, with her it doesn't take much!
10. Tom Harris on why more MPs don't blog.
11. Dizzy explains some sad personal circumstances and why his blogging will be lighter over the next few weeks.
12. Cicero's Songs talks tough about the LibDems and a hung Parliament.

NATO Chiefs Brief Lefty Bloggers

Yesterday a group of eight political bloggers were invited to NATO HQ to be briefed by senior NATO officials. Liberal Conspiracy reports that they were...

Luke Akehurst (lukeakehurst.blogspot.com)
Martin Butcher (natomonitor.blogspot.com)
David Cole (davecole.org)
Mehdi Hasan (newstatesman.com)
Sunny Hundal (liberalconspiracy.org)
Zohra Moosa (thefword.org.uk)
James O’Malley (poddelusion.co.uk)
Will Straw (leftfootforward.org)

How times change. In the 1980s half of them wouldn't have been let anywhere near the building, let alone inside it. :)

Luke Akehurst reports HERE on the experience, as does Will Straw and Mehdi Hasan.

Simply Beautiful

I don't often comment on art. There's a reason for that. Frankly I know nothing about it. But let me break the habit of a lifetime and say something nice about the Turner Prize winner Richard Wright. He has produced one of the beautiful pieces of art I have seen for a very long time. It may look like anaglypta (sp?) wallpaper made out of gold leaf but I find it hugely impressive.

And the best thing about it is that you'd never guess it had anything to do with the Turner Prize, whose reputation precedes it.

Caption Competition: Gerry Adams

Spray tan. £15
Union Jack bag and matching top. £45
Getting your picture taken with Gerry Adams dressed like that.

Priceless.

And for everything else...

Feel free to come up with your own captions.

Are People From West Sussex Stupid?

I ask the question having seen the video below. It raises two questions - not just the question as to whether West Sussex County Council thinks their population is completely stupid, but also the more important question of why they are spending council tax payers'money on this inanity.



And if that isn't enough you can learn HOW TO READ A MAP or HOW TO WASH YOUR HANDS. You can learn to apply soap to your hands, work up a lather and wash between your fingers. And through the round window...

The West Sussex County Council Youtube channel has a massive 7 subscribers. Only one of their videos has had more than 200 views.

Should we be surprised? Clearly the people of West Sussex are more discerning than their County Council thinks!

How much money have these videos cost?

Welsh Assembly Member Defects to Tories

Mohammad Asghar, Plaid Cymru member of the National Assembly for Wales for South East Wales, has today defected to the Welsh Conservatives. Rather a coup, I'd have thought. Welsh Tories have just issued a statement...

PLAID Cymru Assembly Member Mohammad Asghar and his daughter Natasha – a former Plaid candidate – have joined the Conservative Party, it was announced today. Mohammad, AM for South Wales East, and Natasha, who stood in Blaenau Gwent at the 2007 Assembly elections and in June’s European elections, were formally welcomed to the Conservative Party at an event in Cardiff today.

Mohammad – known to friends as Oscar – becomes the first sitting Assembly Member to cross the floor and join another party. His defection takes the Welsh Conservative group in the National Assembly to 13 and means the party now has two AMs representing South Wales East.

Mohammad Asghar said: “For some time now I have felt out of tune with the views and policies of Plaid Cymru. My politics are very much in line with wanting a stronger Wales within a successful United Kingdom. I believe that the Welsh Conservative Party in the National Assembly, led by Nick Bourne, reflects my beliefs. I am also attracted by the caring Conservatism and policies for change put forward by David Cameron and the Conservative Party at Westminster. I very much look forward to playing an important role in the shadow team in the National Assembly and to helping to shape the policies for the Assembly elections in 2011.”

Welsh Conservative Assembly leader Nick Bourne said:

“I am absolutely delighted to welcome Oscar and Natasha to the Conservative Party. I am also delighted that Oscar is going to be part of our Assembly team in the run-up to the next Assembly elections. He is a man who commands respect within the Assembly and the communities of South Wales East.

“Natasha is an energetic campaigner and an experienced candidate. I look forward to them both playing an important role in the Conservative Party in the future. Today’s decision is another sign that only the Conservative Party, under David Cameron’s leadership, can bring about the change Wales and Britain needs. We hope others will follow Mohammad and Natasha’s example and join us to make that change happen.”

Last night a Labour councillor in Croydon also crossed the floor to the Conservatives.

What Are the Odds?

Yesterday I arranged to see the nice people from iPadio about a new idea I have had. We agreed 5pm on Wednesday. I asked if they would mind coming to my office. They said yes, where is it? 375 Kennington Lane, I said. Well that's rather convenient, they said. "Our previous meeting is next door at 371 Kennington Lane."

What are the odds on that happening, I wonder? Spooky.

The Daley Dozen: Monday

1. Stephen Glenn is vexed with the BBC.
2. ConHome has the shortlist for Orpington.
3. Biased BBC on 'deniers'.
4. Jon Craig on the Serjeant's apology.
5. Mike Rouse's blog gets its 17th makeover :)
6. Melanie Phillips calls the BBC a temple of science denial.
7. Conservative History Journal on a truly bad mystery.
8. Michael Crick on how to unseat The Speaker.
9. EU Referendum on the silence of the Right.
10. Party Lines on the marriage debate.
11. Ellee Seymour on the Cambridge Tory shortlist.
12. Iain Martin on Gordon Brown's straight face.

Back When Global Cooling Was the Rage

Earlier this evening I spent half an hour talking about Copenhagen and Climate Change on the BBC World Service along with the very charming Anna Chen, better known as Labour blogger Madam Miaow, and three other climate change enthusiasts (if that's the right phrase).

At one point I explained that in the 1970s we were taught in school that the planet was on the verge of another ice age and that global cooling was a real threat to the planet. Yet a quarter of a century later we are told the scientists got it wrong then and we are invited to believe that the whole scientific world is united in its belief that global warming is entirely man made. It might be. But it might not be. I still can;t work out how come the earth was far warmer in medieval times than it is today, at a time when the cause cannot possibly have been man made. They were growing grapes in York for God's sake! No scientist has yet explained within my ear shot how that can have happened with no man made input and yet at the same time is 100% sure that the 21st century version of global warming is entirely man's fault.

Charles Crawford is having similar thoughts today.

Back in the mists of time (early 2008) when this blog started and no-one read it, I posted this about Climate Change:

In my Civil Service entrance exams back in 1975 one of the questions asked what UK policy-makers should do as a new Ice Age raced in our direction at an unfeasibly speedy speed.

I forget my answer but remember being exasperated by the silliness of the question:

Draft a short position paper for managing the end of civilisation as we have known it.

(Note: Marks will be deducted for poor presentation, unless the candidate can show that noxious fumes emerging from the new volcanoes in Magdalen College gardens brought about by Global Colding were a contributory factor, in which case the normal appeal procedures will pertain.)

Yes, back in those days the papers were full of alarmist ravings about Global Cooling and all the terrors coming our way from it.

Someone else has remembered those scary days of global cooling, namely Gary Sutton who suggests that scientists just say what the grant-donors want to hear:

In 2002 I stood in a room of the Smithsonian. One entire wall charted the cooling of our globe over the last 60 million years. This was no straight line. The curve had two steep dips followed by leveling. There were no significant warming periods. Smithsonian scientists inscribed it across some 20 feet of plaster, with timelines.

Last year, I went back. That fresco is painted over. The same curve hides behind smoked glass, shrunk to three feet but showing the same cooling trend. Hey, why should the Smithsonian put its tax-free status at risk? If the politicians decide to whip up public fear in a different direction, get with it, oh ye subsidized servants.

He points out the ebb and flow of climate over the past thousand years or so. And gives us this wonderful heresy:

Those sustained temperature swings, all before the evil economic benefits of oil consumption, suggest there are factors at work besides humans...

... the longer term changes are no more compelling, unless you include the ice ages, and then, perhaps, the panic attempts of the 1970s were right.

Is it possible that if we put more CO2 in the air, we'd forestall the next ice age?

Shouldn't we be told?

Indeed.

Baby You Can Drive My Car...

Meanwhile, in Copenhagen....

Book of the Day: TP Guide to the 2010 Election

I should declare an interest in this book, as I am not only its publisher but also its co-editor. However, I will freely admit that Greg Callus (aka Morus from PoliticalBetting) did more of the work that I did. The book is published with ComRes who have provided much of the data, along with Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher from the University of Plymouth Election Centre.

Basically, in one volume, you've got everything you need to analyse which seats are likely to go where. It's a unique guide to the state of the parties, policies and issues in the run-up to polling, including expert predictions from political pundits.

With its extensive guide to the key marginal constituencies that will make up the battleground, expert commentary and comprehensive opinion poll analysis, this book will arm you with all the facts and figures you need to make an informed choice at the ballot box.

It also features lists of prospective candidates, examples of historical precedent, analysis of the key marginal seats and a comprehensive assessment of the political landscape as the country moves onto an election footing.

BOOK CONTENTS

Editors' introduction and acknowledgements

Foreword
Peter Riddell

The pollster's perspective: key moments and trends in the 54th parliament
Andrew Hawkins

Deaths, resignations and retirements: the by-elections of the 54th parliament
Mike Smithson

Change we can believe in? How electoral law has altered since 2005
Donal Blaney

Fear and loathing on the campaign trail 2010? How the media will cover the next general election
Jon Craig

Things can only get beta: will this be the first 'internet election'?
Matthew McGregor, Blue State Digital

'Meet the new boss, same as the old boss': do manifestos really matter?
Greg Callus

Preface to the party campaigns chapters
Greg Callus

Going fourth into that good night? Labour's general election campaign
Paul Richards

Great expectations: the Conservatives' general election campaign
James McGrath

Follow the yellow brick road? The Liberal Democrats' general election campaign
Mark Pack

Outside the mainstream: where might the major parties be beaten?
Greg Callus

The bookies' favourites: what the betting markets say
Robin Hutchison

All change? The expected demographics of the next House of Commons
Greg Callus

Lists
Iain Dale

Retiring MPs at the next election

Regional & Constituency Profiles
Regional profiles by Robert Waller
Constituency profiles by Dan Hamilton

The book retails at £19.99, but Amazon have it on offer at £10.69. Buy it HERE.

Three Government Advisers Quit to Advise Tories

I hear that an announcement is just about to be made that Bernard Gray (the MOD's adviser on efficiency) has quit the Government to advise the Conservatives on public sector productivity. Martin Read, who is cited in Gordon Brown's foreword to the 'Smarter Gov' paper has followed suit, as has Sir Peter Gershon. They'll be advising Phillip Hammond - helping the Tories to squeeze out the endemic waste of the past decade.

This is quite a coup, especially as their insights on efficiency were spot on - but were ultimately blocked by Gordon Brown & Co.

It's yet another sign that the political establishment is swinging behind the Tories - and expects Brown to be booted out at the next election.

Brown's Up tp His Old Tricks (Again)

Gordon Brown's speech this morning on how he will cut £12 billion from government spending over four years, is already unravelling. Much of it is not new and has been announced before. Take the pledge to "Publish plans for the use of e-auctions by the end of 2010." This is nothing new.

‘The Government is also using innovative procurement tools: E-auctions allow suppliers to bid online for business. Savings, typically 20-25 per cent of the project value, emerge from the price improvements produced by a transparent negotiation, which is instantaneous and electronic, and from simpler processes. OGC sponsored IT e-auctions have saved nearly £16 million on an expenditure of £54 million, involving more than 300 organisations’ (HM Treasury, Transforming government procurement, 2007, p.10).

‘Since September 2005, the Office of the Government Commerce's IT eAuction programme has helped over 40 public sector bodies’ (OGC, Saving Money with IT eAuctions, November 2006).

‘The national health service Purchasing and Supply Agency (PASA) is conducting pilot e-auctions to establish if they will provide best value for money for the NHS and in which areas they are most effective’ (Hansard, 21 January 2004, col. 1356W).

And then there's this pledge. 'By Budget 2010 we will set out specific proposals to reduce the level of ring-fencing for local authorities' and 'we will reduce the number of revenue streams to local government. By Budget 2010, we will set out specific proposals to reduce the level of ring-fencing for local authorities'. We have heard this all before...

'In recent years the Government has significantly strengthened the powers of local authorities to do this - by cutting red tape and ring fencing' (DCLG press release, 2 July 2009).

'Alongside the introduction of the new performance framework (April 2009) all funding being distributed through LAAs will be unringfenced' (DCLG, Strong and prosperous communities, Local Government White Paper, October 2006, p.105)

Yet the proportion of ring-fenced local government revenue expenditure has actually risen from 4 per cent in 1997-98 (Hansard, 12 December 2007, col. 685WA) to 14.6 per cent in 2009-10 (Hansard, 12 March 2009, col. 745W; excludes Direct Schools Grant).

Brown's delivery this morning carried no passion or conviction. He just read out the speech in his normal machine gun fashion. Radio 5 Live, who covered the speech live, couldn't find a single caller to praise Brown. One woman rang in and said

Gordon Brown's speech was a absolute inspiration ... if you live on Planet Brown. I don't. I live in the real world.

Copenhagen Memo: No 94

Memo to Ed Miliband

Ed, today you have been all over the airwaves exhorting us all to cut our carbon footprints and that business must also cut its carbon emissions or face the consequences.

Yet your government has thrown its weight (rightly, in my view) behind a third runway at Heathrow Airport. This will, as I am sure you are aware, increase carbon emissions rather than help cut them

Is this what you mean by 'joined up government'? Should we really take all your warnings of a coming armageddon seriously if your government speaks with forked tongues in this manner?

Just askin'.

One Third of Abortions Are Repeats

If proof were needed that there is something seriously wrong with both our moral values and sex education system, it comes with the new that of the 195,000 abortions performed in this country last year, more than one third were repeats.

And even worse, more than 5,000 teenagers had repeat abortions - some for the third or fourth time.

Surely even the most ardent pro-choice campaigner must be just as horrified by these statistics as those on the opposite side of the fence.