tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post4809322142856941831..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: Poll Results: Second Preference VotesIain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-74650656302842849792009-09-23T02:54:46.144+01:002009-09-23T02:54:46.144+01:00A preferential votings system ensures that the can...A preferential votings system ensures that the candiate(s) elected have an absolute majority support.<br /><br />If you have one candiate that has 40% support and another that has 32% and a third with 28% who should win.<br /><br />Under the first past the post system the candidate with 40% of the votes would win. Yet 60% of the voters do not support them.<br /><br />Under a preferential voting system the candidate with 28% of the vote would be excluded from the count and their votes redistr5ibuted according to the voters nominated order of preference.<br /><br />In Melbourne Australia one canidate for the City Council election in 1999 complained that he had secured 40% of the vote and was the highest polling candidate yet he was not elected . The fact is that 60% of the voters did not support him. <br /><br />The preferential voting system ensures that in a single member electorate the candidate elected has 50% or more support. It produces the same result as a two round first-past-the-post voting system yet is more democratic, stabile and fairer at half the costs of holding a two round ballot.DemocracyATWorknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-7115729222251306222008-03-31T11:30:00.000+01:002008-03-31T11:30:00.000+01:00No it is because the LudDims are now an alternativ...No it is because the LudDims are now an alternative green party, having expelled those, such as myself, who dared to support classic liberalism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-29495109226829678572008-03-29T19:09:00.000+00:002008-03-29T19:09:00.000+00:00No one's mentioned the rather high Green second pr...No one's mentioned the rather high Green second preference votes. Much higher than I'd have guessed.<BR/><BR/>Is that because the Green agenda is more of a priority now - or because they aren't part of the big three they seem less threatening?Jim Jeppshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17410387006098326671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-23232325808719522992008-03-29T17:57:00.000+00:002008-03-29T17:57:00.000+00:00When people are told they must have a second prefe...When people are told they must have a second preference as per a formal AV vote, the data is useful. However otherwise need to be careful of second preference as such surveys need also to ask how likely they would be to switch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-7586988103509614792008-03-29T12:54:00.000+00:002008-03-29T12:54:00.000+00:00I think the main finding of your excellent survey ...I think the main finding of your excellent survey is that it would topple Labour MPs in marginal seats where twice as many Lib Dem votes go to the Conservatives rather than Labour e.g. <BR/><BR/>LAB 18,000<BR/>CON 17,000<BR/>LD 8,000<BR/>(Lab maj 1,000)<BR/><BR/>after AV becomes<BR/><BR/>CON 22,500 (+5,500)<BR/>LAB 20,500 (+2,500)<BR/><BR/>However, it is not quid-pro-quo: Labour voters prefer Lib Dems, so current LD seats could become much safer as a result of 3rd placed Labour votes going to the Lib Dems. I'm sure Nick Clegg would be keen on such a policy, but it would wipe out a lot of Labour MPs in Lab-Con marginals!<BR/><BR/>Intelligent thinking from Labour.<BR/><BR/>Despite this benefit, Tories should reject it as it is an undemocratic system. (Although if the LD 2nd vote for Conservatives trend plays out in London, it will presumably benefit Boris Johnston?)Armchair Sceptichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06700172701458170654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-110027829655088912008-03-28T23:54:00.000+00:002008-03-28T23:54:00.000+00:00What is interesting is that the 'don't knows'/woul...What is interesting is that the 'don't knows'/wouldn't vote for a second party, are all closely matched.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-4248846660452061132008-03-28T23:20:00.000+00:002008-03-28T23:20:00.000+00:00Gordon's fear of the UKIndependence vote in the ne...Gordon's fear of the UKIndependence vote in the next EU election showing up his error in not allowing a referendum will probably drive him to have the general election on the same day as that EU election. I, like a great many people, will vote UKIndependence in the EU elections and treat it as a referendum; most people will realise that electing a MEP is a waste of time in any case so will not consider the vote to be wasted. A big anti-europe vote would stuff his chances of playing down his denial of a vote on the constitution.... which he should know will cost him a lot of votes.haddockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01890864334999930139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-22048373026317642162008-03-28T22:56:00.000+00:002008-03-28T22:56:00.000+00:0040% of the poll's 800+ apparently Conservative vot...40% of the poll's 800+ apparently Conservative voters would vote for the party David Cameron labels 'fruit cakes, loonies and racists', UKIP. That's not very vote blue get green. <BR/><BR/>If as David Cameron said, UKIP is a party of racists, it makes the poll results even more interesting: almost every other Tory in the poll is a racist (some 46.8%) voting for UKIP and the BNP.<BR/><BR/>Obviously, this is not truly representative.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-17867317522420112132008-03-28T21:50:00.000+00:002008-03-28T21:50:00.000+00:00Don't worry about missing Liebour out of the UKIP ...Don't worry about missing Liebour out of the UKIP poll, most UKIPs would rather pull their own teeth than vote Liebour. In fact, a lot of them probably have to because they can't find a dentist any more thanks to ... ooo, Liebour.wonkotsanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04896256040598397497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-8256748901468284712008-03-28T17:41:00.000+00:002008-03-28T17:41:00.000+00:00I expect you have a lower proportion of the more l...I expect you have a lower proportion of the more left-wing Lib Dem members reading your blog than the more right-wing members of the party, but your stats make interesting reading nevertheless. I'd say that in all honesty, no-one can really accurately predict who, if anyone, would really gain from this system.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-27456957845895073522008-03-28T17:02:00.000+00:002008-03-28T17:02:00.000+00:00The lazy assumption is that there's an "anti-Tory ...The lazy assumption is that there's an "anti-Tory majority" in this country that will automatically trade second prefs, thus keeping the Conservatives out of office for ever and ever. I've long been convinced that this is rubbish: what there was in the 1990s wasn't an "anti-Tory" majority but an anti-government one.<BR/><BR/>We shall see very soon. My guess is that a majority of Paddick's second prefs will go to Boris - perhaps a small majority, but enough to get him elected.<BR/><BR/>If AV were instituted, I think we should expect to see, not permanent Labour government, but more frequent changes of administration, as Lib Dem second prefs will tend to go to the main opposition party, whoever that is.Heresiarchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03515376670031027455noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-87615961964328845172008-03-28T16:48:00.000+00:002008-03-28T16:48:00.000+00:00You can understand Fleet street types not knowing ...You can understand Fleet street types not knowing this, but what is Gordon Brown's excuse for not knowing that, while Lib Dems in the South are (probably Labour-hating) Trots, Lib Dems in Scotland, Wales and especially the North are (certainly Labour-hating) Tories?<BR/><BR/>Still, the Alternative Vote holds no terrors for some of us. See my blog.David Lindsayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06839882674758833524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-56702363282561868522008-03-28T16:21:00.000+00:002008-03-28T16:21:00.000+00:00Well it looks like the Conservatives have got most...Well it looks like the Conservatives have got most of the LD votes to play for if they endorse a democratic electoral system.<BR/><BR/>Mind you as you say it is a bit of fun & the fact that the don't knows didn't rise among UKIP voters when you didn't give thhem the option of voting Labour suggests it wasn't taken that seriously.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-18122065669646161072008-03-28T15:16:00.000+00:002008-03-28T15:16:00.000+00:00I put down UKIP as a second choice for the survey,...I put down UKIP as a second choice for the survey, but in reality, there are currently no parties other than the Conservatives that come close to what I want to see in government, so I almost certainly wouldn't bother using a 2nd choice. Labour and the Lib Dems are as bad as each other, I am seriously annoyed with both of them and couldn't be bothered with the prospect of working out which of them is least worst or a good tacticaly choice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-77669726153028753312008-03-28T14:58:00.000+00:002008-03-28T14:58:00.000+00:00Interesting to note that more Labour voters feel a...Interesting to note that more Labour voters feel an affinity with the BNP than Conservatives (albeitin the perventages bith are very small). Seems to support the point that to all intents and purposes the BNP are White Power SocialistsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-5223109676282176252008-03-28T14:53:00.000+00:002008-03-28T14:53:00.000+00:00No surprise to see Labour voters more likely to go...No surprise to see Labour voters more likely to go BNP than Tories. We must break down the fallacy that just because you believe in collectivised economics you're less likely to be racially bigoted. <BR/>Look at where BNP wins: Labour strongholds all of them!TLDORChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00821789505647637219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-79208843723410363792008-03-28T14:27:00.000+00:002008-03-28T14:27:00.000+00:00Whether its indictative or not, one thing is clear...Whether its indictative or not, one thing is clear, this is yet another attempt by our fascist government to gerrymander.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-57043745573899516432008-03-28T14:14:00.000+00:002008-03-28T14:14:00.000+00:00Labour missed out in error for the UKIP voters 2nd...Labour missed out in error for the UKIP voters 2nd pref.?<BR/>That's quite understandable, 'cos I wouldn't think any UKIP voter would give a 2nd preference to Labour after the Lisbon "Treaty".Twighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16698620636313191152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-78272967051232974252008-03-28T14:02:00.000+00:002008-03-28T14:02:00.000+00:00Iain, Labour figure.... wouldnt it be the remainde...Iain, Labour figure.... wouldnt it be the remainder of the votes not included in the list???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-37464495506520914232008-03-28T13:59:00.000+00:002008-03-28T13:59:00.000+00:00Love it - of 827 Conservative voters, 31 would giv...Love it - of 827 Conservative voters, 31 would give their second vote to the SNP. Come on SNP, put up some candidates in England! We want shot of you!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-9428253329971677282008-03-28T13:47:00.000+00:002008-03-28T13:47:00.000+00:00Let's hope Bottler sees it. AV = dead at birth.Let's hope Bottler sees it. AV = dead at birth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-76100431833191430902008-03-28T13:29:00.000+00:002008-03-28T13:29:00.000+00:00You have to factor in that your blog attracts rig...You have to factor in that your blog attracts rightish people . The real Liberal Democrat vote is only Labour plus vanity and this is misleading<BR/><BR/>I see Clegg has ditched his Orange book under internal party pressure ...its a con .They are Labour which is thei right , I just want all Conservatives in marginal seats to know that a vote for Clegg is vote for Brown simple as thatNewmaniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11922161971821380803noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-44179943681397896162008-03-28T13:20:00.000+00:002008-03-28T13:20:00.000+00:00Bear in mind that this is not a random sample of v...Bear in mind that this is not a random sample of voters. Disregarding the relatively high proportion of first-choice Conservative voters, the number of second-choice voters is hardly surprising. The anti-Conservative Libdems and Labour voters would be less likely to read this blog.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13775753218753337766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-11652652723813301782008-03-28T13:10:00.000+00:002008-03-28T13:10:00.000+00:00Excellent post. I wish I'd thought of it. Even i...Excellent post. I wish I'd thought of it. Even if we don't go to an AV system, results like these could be a good indication of possible swing.Daily Referendumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00899003349232334603noreply@blogger.com