tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post1664307607000611741..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: Damned Lies and Crime StatisticsIain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-87855983956821178902008-07-18T22:59:00.000+01:002008-07-18T22:59:00.000+01:00Unsworth said... "And the definition of crimes 'Ex...Unsworth said... <BR/><I>"And the definition of crimes 'Experienced'? How is there a record of crimes 'Experienced' when records and/or reports are limited, partial or non-existent?<BR/>By definition 'Experienced' is therefore an unknown proportion of total crime."</I><BR/><BR/>You misunderstand the basis of the BCS. It is not concerned directly with 'recorded' or 'reported' crime.<BR/><BR/>About 50,000 households are randomly selected each year and one of the adults in each household is interviewed to establish whether any member of the household has been a victim of crime in the past year. If they have been then details of the crime(s) are entered by the interviewer on a questionnaire. <BR/><BR/>The interviewee is asked if the crime has been reported to and/or recorded by the police but the main objective of the survey is to establish the actual EXPERIENCE of crime, not the degree of involvement of the police.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-30359699092658017732008-07-18T19:20:00.000+01:002008-07-18T19:20:00.000+01:00@ Anonymous 4:27 PMAnd the definition of crimes 'E...@ Anonymous 4:27 PM<BR/><BR/>And the definition of crimes 'Experienced'? How is there a record of crimes 'Experienced' when records and/or reports are limited, partial or non-existent?<BR/><BR/>By definition 'Experienced' is therefore an unknown proportion of total crime. Could be 10%, could be 90%. Who knows?Unsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08307116169498533047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-16075477900819123812008-07-18T18:52:00.000+01:002008-07-18T18:52:00.000+01:00Do the crime stats include the large chunk of my p...Do the crime stats include the large chunk of my pension that got nicked a few years back? Or the increased chunk of my earnings grabbed by hmrc since 1997. The regular council tax muggings?<BR/>Thought not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-38865410607783140702008-07-18T16:38:00.000+01:002008-07-18T16:38:00.000+01:00The BCS is widely recognised to be flawed. For exa...The BCS is widely recognised to be flawed. For example, it contains no info on crimes committed by or against those 16 years or younger. The demographic that seems to be most involved in knife crime.Richard Edwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02021997075923737760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-61819497009386689502008-07-18T16:30:00.000+01:002008-07-18T16:30:00.000+01:00Several commenters have noted that the BCS has not...Several commenters have noted that the BCS has nothing to do with reported crime but<BR/>in any case the shortcomings of the survey were pointed out by a research team over a year ago:<BR/><BR/>“Violent crime is 82 per cent higher at 4.4 million offences compared with 2.4 million in the BCS, the survey claims, including a 156 per cent rise in "acquaintance violence" from 817,000 incidents to 2.1 million.<BR/><BR/>Domestic violence is 140 per cent higher, up from 357,000 incidents a year to 857,000, the authors said, while there are nearly three million common assaults a year rather than the 1.5 million estimated by the BCS, a rise of 98 per cent.<BR/><BR/>Burglary is 20 per cent higher than currently estimated, at 877,000 a year, and vandalism is 24 per cent higher, the report calculated.<BR/><BR/>Robbery is 7 per cent up on the official estimates, or an extra 22,000 crimes bringing the yearly total to 333,000.”<BR/><BR/>http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/government-figures-missing-two-million-violent-crimes-454637.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-60600642313068030632008-07-18T16:27:00.000+01:002008-07-18T16:27:00.000+01:00Unsworth said... <@ Chris Paul"The downwar...Unsworth said... <BR/><@ Chris Paul<BR/><BR/>"The downward movement of crime actually reported, recorded, experienced...."<BR/><BR/>Garbage. That position is pathetic. <BR/><BR/>'Reported' is not the same as 'Recorded' which is not the same as 'Experienced'. How do you quantify 'Experienced' if it is not 'Reported' and/or not 'Recorded'?><BR/><BR/>Simple. The BCS quantifies crimes EXPERIENCED.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-26161609161360004962008-07-18T15:37:00.000+01:002008-07-18T15:37:00.000+01:00Dear IainA couple of things to consider... 1. Peo...Dear Iain<BR/><BR/>A couple of things to consider... <BR/><BR/>1. People place far greater weight on violent crimes - assault, robbery, wounding etc. for the obvious reason that they are more harmful and distressing than shop-lifting, possession of drugs, vandalism etc. The headline crime figures weight all crimes equally, but they are not equal in gravity. Though violent crime as measured by the BCS has fallen, most of this fall has been domestic violence. 'Stranger violence' - the thing that people fear most - has not really fallen at all. A good policy would be to publish a 'harm-weighted' crime index... The Home Office has studies that attempt to weight different crimes according to their harm (see <A HREF="http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/hors217.pdf" REL="nofollow">Research Paper 217</A> for eye-popping differences in valuation of different crimes) - and that would be a good starting point. Certainly far better than weighting all crimes equally.<BR/><BR/>2. One should be careful of perceptions - more people (65% and rising) believe crime in the country as a whole is increasing than in their locality (39% and falling)... The perception of crime in a locality arises from experience, but perceptions about the whole country are 'mediated'... told through news coverage, political rhetoric, high profile cases, scares etc. <BR/><BR/>3. Crimes that actually happen arise when threat/intent, vulnerability and victim behaviour configure to create an opportunity with adequate risk and return (however defined) for the criminal. The threat/intent may be rising, but people can respond by hardening their property, buying a knife, staying indoors in terror, avoiding town-centres after 8pm etc. So the crime figures are a poor proxy for threat - and it is the threat that people are feeling when they feel that crime is rising.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-26713928635394998782008-07-18T15:21:00.000+01:002008-07-18T15:21:00.000+01:00The crime statistics include "perception of crime"...The crime statistics include "perception of crime" survey results. so to claim that peoples perception of crime doesn't tally up is to essentially say everyone on a large survey of perceptions has lied.<BR/><BR/>It's a shame under 16's aren't surveyed, but then when it comes to knife crime, in particular knife crime murders, then the police recorded statistics are more than adequate for showing trends.<BR/><BR/>Statistics are never perfect, never will be, but to claim that they don't say something they clearly do is a little absent minded. That said I do totally agree that nothing proves that it is this government or the police that have been the cause of any drops.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-62542126070338306032008-07-18T15:20:00.000+01:002008-07-18T15:20:00.000+01:00As the boys in blue now make it very hard to repor...As the boys in blue now make it very hard to report crime by either not turning up or classifying as misdemeanour, many people don't bother to report crime as being a futile effort.<BR/>Just like the figures produced by the ONS, the BCS is becoming a bit of a joke. But, then hey, this is Britain, governed by spin and deception, so put on your rose tinted glasses, as everything is absolutely bloody, sic, fine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-26542402527569124582008-07-18T15:19:00.000+01:002008-07-18T15:19:00.000+01:00Mantra of the analysts is "all crimes are incident...Mantra of the analysts is "all crimes are incidents, but not all incidents are crimes". Have a good weekend peeps.Dick the Prickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02683095612320513712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-66289105309550281822008-07-18T15:03:00.000+01:002008-07-18T15:03:00.000+01:00Crime figures are falling for these reasons:1. Sta...Crime figures are falling for these reasons:<BR/><BR/>1. Statistical manipulation such as certain crimes e.g. credit card fraud not being counted, and people not bothering to report crime<BR/><BR/>2. Individual responses to increased crime levels e.g. purchasing car alarms, better house locks etc<BR/><BR/>3. Higher prison population preventing more criminals from commiting crimes while they are inside<BR/><BR/>4. Labour's geat anti-crime initiatives, the policing methods they have imposed from Whitehall etc<BR/><BR/>Actually, I made that last one up.Astro-Turf Lawnmowerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131914904410009882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-26453753243665697952008-07-18T14:09:00.000+01:002008-07-18T14:09:00.000+01:00@ Chris Paul"The downward movement of crime actual...@ Chris Paul<BR/><BR/>"The downward movement of crime actually reported, recorded, experienced...."<BR/><BR/>Garbage. That position is pathetic. <BR/><BR/>'Reported' is not the same as 'Recorded' which is not the same as 'Experienced'. How do you quantify 'Experienced' if it is not 'Reported' and/or not 'Recorded'?<BR/><BR/>To attribute any decrease in crime solely to government agency is also garbage. <BR/><BR/>But in your slavish world that is probably what happens.Unsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08307116169498533047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-59962181604253033642008-07-18T13:02:00.000+01:002008-07-18T13:02:00.000+01:00If you actually look at the figures for the most s...If you actually look at the figures for the most serious violent offences (page 64 of 'Crime in England and Wales 2007/8'), you find that violent crime has increased since 1997, but has fallen since the peak of 2001-2004. For example: <BR/><BR/>Homicide:<BR/>1997/8 748<BR/>1998/9 750<BR/>2003/4 904<BR/>2007/8 784<BR/>(There was a peak in 2002/3 but this was skewed by recording of the Harold Shipman murders which actually took place much earlier).<BR/><BR/>Serious wounding or other act endangering life: <BR/>1997/8 12,833<BR/>1998/9 13,960<BR/>2003/4 19,528<BR/>2007/8 15,094<BR/><BR/>I think these figures are the ones to focus on, both because they are the most serious crimes, and because they are the least likely to be affected by extraneous factors such as reporting rates.<BR/><BR/>So whilst it is true that crime has fallen in the last three or four years, serious crime is still substantially higher than even 10 years ago. And it is massively higher than 20 or 30 years ago, which is perhaps what people are thinking of when they say crime is worse than it used to be and the streets are no longer safe. They are right.Richard Nabavihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11528980060497008785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-87962390832326538632008-07-18T12:54:00.000+01:002008-07-18T12:54:00.000+01:00Well thank you, Martin. Anyone got any other feedb...<I>Well thank you, Martin. Anyone got any other feedback on the British Crime Survey, which purports to show that recorded crime has fallen by 30% since Labour came to power in 1997? No, don't laugh. It isn't clever, and it's not funny.</I><BR/><BR/>According to the BCS there was a 14% fall in crime between 1995 and 1997. I suppose that WAS clever and funny.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-4038378339035370022008-07-18T12:42:00.000+01:002008-07-18T12:42:00.000+01:00ferret said... "Allan Scullion - of course murder ...ferret said... <BR/>"Allan Scullion - of course murder is excluded from the BCS. It is a survey asking people if they have been the victim of various crimes."<BR/><BR/>No "of course" about it. People surveyed are asked what crimes they or ANYONE IN THEIR HOUSEHOLD have experienced.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-82507965643565465072008-07-18T12:41:00.000+01:002008-07-18T12:41:00.000+01:00@Ferret:Allan Scullion - of course murder is exclu...@Ferret:<BR/><BR/><I>Allan Scullion - of course murder is excluded from the BCS. It is a survey asking people if they have been the victim of various crimes. Its designed to give accurate figures for these crime which will not always be reported and recorded by the police. Clearly the dead cannot answer surveys, and in any case there are already extremely accurate records for murders, as they are almost always reported.</I><BR/><BR/>Oh come on! The government use the BCS as a publicity tool to show overall crime trends. <BR/><BR/>The fact is, it is flawed.<BR/><BR/>Graffiti, crimes against children (including knife crime), crimes against business, drug crime and murder could all soar dramatically and this survey would tell us that crime is falling.<BR/><BR/>Noble though its aims may be, the BCS is far too narrow in its scope to be taken seriously. Couple that with a government famous for spinmongering then the whole thing is a joke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-35296573805924387892008-07-18T12:40:00.000+01:002008-07-18T12:40:00.000+01:00The Coppersblog Team said... "... the BCS only ask...The Coppersblog Team said... <BR/><I>"... the BCS only asks people who live in privately-owned properties about their experience of crime. ..<BR/><BR/>However, the effect of this is that you survey people who are more likely to live in low crime areas ....<BR/><BR/>However, I suggest that people who live in rented accommodation, council or otherwise, tend to be ...."</I><BR/><BR/><BR/>The BCS survey covers PRIVATE RESIDENCES. This includes rented accommodation (council houses, etc)as well as owner-occupied properties. It just means that people living in business premises or institutions are excluded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-56608434074649612552008-07-18T11:30:00.000+01:002008-07-18T11:30:00.000+01:00Allan Scullion - of course murder is excluded from...Allan Scullion - of course murder is excluded from the BCS. It is a survey asking people if they have been the victim of various crimes. Its designed to give accurate figures for these crime which will not always be reported and recorded by the police. Clearly the dead cannot answer surveys, and in any case there are already extremely accurate records for murders, as they are almost always reported.<BR/><BR/>Its interesting, and dissappointing, Iain, that you are more willing to listen to sensationalist press reporting of crime than you are to look at a serious and well respected study of people's actual experiences. The likes of the Daily Mail and others thrieve off spreading a sense of fear amongst their readership – they couldn't care much whether what they report accurately reflects reality. But presumably intelligent people such as yourself and the Shadow Cabinet should at least try to refrain from spreading alarm over a fictional 'broken society' for short term political gain – it does not reflect well on the Conservative Party at all. <BR/><BR/>There are undoubtably crime hotspots and particular problems (such as knife crime in London) – there always have been. And they must be tackled. But it equally concerning that large numbers of people are made to be fearful of crime by sensationalist media reporting, to the extent that it can often damage their lives. People believe that crime is rising. And yet fewer of them have ever been victims of crime. The media is the cause of the disjunction between the two.<BR/><BR/>Interestingly, the Daily Mail barely reported the fall in crime yesterday. Instead (as it does today) it filled its pages with the usual parade of stabbings etc. The message: BE AFRAID. Fear sells. Truth doesn't. Sad.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-73087661924922673532008-07-18T11:21:00.000+01:002008-07-18T11:21:00.000+01:00So weak Iain. Are you in any way qualified to pont...So weak Iain. Are you in any way qualified to pontificate about statistics? Or to present anecdote as king? This way lies disproportionate misery and fear of crime.<BR/><BR/>The downward movement of crime actually reported, recorded, experienced is immense and deserves to be recognised. As does government agency in achieving this great fall. 48% down.Chris Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15679067503215414300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-5418843226178467962008-07-18T11:17:00.000+01:002008-07-18T11:17:00.000+01:00Lets face facts:Everything is up under Labour,Taxe...Lets face facts:<BR/><BR/>Everything is up under Labour,<BR/><BR/>Taxes are up<BR/>Immigration is up<BR/>Emigration is up<BR/>Borrowing is up<BR/>House prices are up<BR/>Personal debt is up<BR/>Knife Crime is up<BR/>Gun crime is up<BR/>Business failures is up<BR/>Bankruptcies will be going up.<BR/><BR/>Why should we believe that crime is down - oh yes forgot that they now exclude a lot of it from reporting!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-28240943664996365852008-07-18T10:56:00.000+01:002008-07-18T10:56:00.000+01:002 police attacked by 30 youths in Croyden. One in...2 police attacked by 30 youths in Croyden. One in hospital - with bite wounds.<BR/><BR/>All for telling a girl to pick up her litter.<BR/><BR/>What chance do the rest of us have? What use would these new CSOs be?<BR/><BR/>Will the Home Secretary resign?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-66391068803781166232008-07-18T10:26:00.000+01:002008-07-18T10:26:00.000+01:00The previous comments have summed up pretty accura...The previous comments have summed up pretty accurately why crime stats, recorded, reported or via the BCS have long been regarded as completely and utterly worthless. Only a mendacious and morally bankrupt politician like Tony McNumpty could crow triumphantly about it. Reported/Recorded crime stats have long been fiddled, the criteria constantly changed by the police and successive governments over time, so nothing has a base point. If anyone thinks that crime is falling then they are on medication or belong to ACPO or the Labour Party, The discussion with Lord McKenzie and David Davies on 'PM' was illuminating because it was only when the MP and Special Constable David Davies made his excellent points that 'Former Top Cop' Lord Mckenzie admitted the stats were pants, he had previously said that the H.O ahould send the message of reassurance out loudly.<BR/>Anyway Ian, when you get home you will have a glossy 8 page newspaper waiting for you, 'Policing Kent - Our plans for 2008 - 11', an unbelivable waste of money stating the bleedin' obvious and packed full of photos of happy smiley people. Drivel!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-13311728787827408082008-07-18T10:25:00.000+01:002008-07-18T10:25:00.000+01:00I've not seen this mentioned - apologies if I have...I've not seen this mentioned - apologies if I have missed it - but for some reason the BCS only asks people who live in privately-owned properties about their experience of crime. (I suspect, though am not sure, that this is historical - that is, it started out this way and has to continue to allow past BCS to be compared with subsequent surveys.)<BR/>However, the effect of this is that you survey people who are more likely to live in low crime areas than high crime (accepting that plenty of people also own homes in high crime areas, this must nevertheless have some effect).<BR/>In some respects, you could argue that this doesn't matter - on the like-for-like principle, you are asking the same kind of people the same question each time you conduct a BCS.<BR/>However, I suggest that people who live in rented accommodation, council or otherwise, tend to be:<BR/>a) younger - and therefore more likely to be involved, as victims or perpetrators, in all sorts of crime, particularly the crime du jour, 'knife crime'.<BR/>b) located in higher crime areas<BR/>c) located in areas which have been more adversely affected than areas of private housing by the collapse in social order which has happened in the last 30-odd years - funnily enough, about the time the BCS has been running - and which are therefore more prone to increases in crime.<BR/>I don't know any front line police officer who thinks that crime is down, or believes any of the figures.The Coppersblog Teamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01329736105725632893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-2291593941324970032008-07-18T10:23:00.000+01:002008-07-18T10:23:00.000+01:00Keith said... "Come on people, show some pride in ...Keith said... <BR/><BR/>"Come on people, show some pride in your country. We're one of the best places on the planet. No, make that the best."<BR/><BR/>You really must have been committing some smoking crime.<BR/><BR/><BR/><B>Martin said...</B><BR/><BR/>"Suppose violent crime in an area is falling. ... Well what if that's because when it gets dark no one wants to go outside alone? So there are fewer victims."<BR/><BR/>Precisely the current situation in the ****hole that England has become.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-28716577761385525582008-07-18T10:03:00.000+01:002008-07-18T10:03:00.000+01:00Over the past 25 years the British Crime Survey ha...Over the past 25 years the British Crime Survey has interviewed people about crime. It has asked about both their perceptions of crime and their experience of crime (reported and unreported). Currently only over 16s are interviewed. <BR/><BR/>This implies that the flaws you point out need some clarification and perhaps rethinking/rewording. Specifically:<BR/>1) Crimes committed <B>by</B> under 16s are not automatically excluded from the survey. It is crimes <B>against</B> under 16s which are excluded.<BR/>2) We have a measure of crime not dependent on reported crime. <BR/>3) The survey enables us to empirically address your claim about the relationship between perceptions of crime and experience of crime.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com