tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post1371380505090823115..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: Twenty Election Night PredictionsIain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-27333475875470538712010-05-09T00:14:15.892+01:002010-05-09T00:14:15.892+01:00"1. I stick by my January prediction of a Tor..."1. I stick by my January prediction of a Tory majority of 12.<br />2. Turnout will be 68-70%<br />3. The LibDems will get around 80 seats.<br />4. Vote share will be C 38, Lab 28, Lib 26<br />5. BBC/ITN/Sky Exit poll will predict a hung parliament - and be proved wrong.<br /><b>6. John Bercow will win by a mile.</b><br /><b><i>7. The SNP will get only 7 seats.</i></b><br />8. Labour chief whip Nick Brown is defeated by the LibDems.<br />9. John Denham loses his Southampton seat.<br />10. Jon Cruddas will be ousted in Dagenham & Rainham by Simon Jones.<br /><b>11. Ed Balls will hang on.</b><br />12. John Reid will be the first senior Labour figure to turn on Gordon Brown - guess around 3am.<br />13. The Conservatives will win more than a dozen seats in Wales.<br /><b>14. Esther Rantzen will be humiliated in Luton South.</b><br />15. Oliver Letwin will squeak through and hang on to his seat.<br /><b><i>16. David Cameron will claim victory between 7 and 8am.</i></b><br /><b><i>17. The Conservatives will win between 1 and 4 seats in Scotland.</i></b><br />18. Gordon Brown will resign as Labour leader by the end of Friday.<br /><i>19. Nick Clegg will declare at between 3am and 4am that the results so far prove the need for electoral reform.</i><br />20. David Cameron will announce his first cabinet appointments on Friday evening and spring at least one major surprise."<br /><br />So you got six out of twenty?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13429950592798175047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-13151480659153847472010-05-07T12:04:46.400+01:002010-05-07T12:04:46.400+01:00Of the 3 predictions I made at 3.32 yesterday afte...Of the 3 predictions I made at 3.32 yesterday afternoon, 2 are right and 1 wrong.<br /><br />I am absolutely delighted to have called Brent for Sarah Teather and got it right.<br /><br />Is there a prize?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-83319334526608419192010-05-06T22:18:03.002+01:002010-05-06T22:18:03.002+01:00Predictions, you say? Then, “Surprised if I get ev...<b>Predictions, you say? Then, “Surprised if I get even half of these right”</b><br /><br />-----------------------------------------------------<br /><br /><br /><br />Heavens, Man, where’s your self-confidence, Mr Iain Dale?<br /><br />Sir, your trademark “nervous modesty” occasionally fails to serve you<br /><br />For example, fancy sharing your predictions proviso: <i>“ … if I get HALF of these right, I’ll be surprised”</i> with your online friends, here. We hold good faith in your hot tips, your sound advice. And, above all, the accuracy of your predictions<br /><br />To help restore your own self-belief, don’t you recall over 9 months ago (on Saturday, 1st August 2009), your twin-prediction for the year 2010?<br /><br /><b>One, that NuLabour wouldn’t win the election, and two, that Mr Alastair Campbell's beloved Burnley Football Club would get relegated at the end of their first season in the Premiership</b><br /><br />As you know, that second one’s come true already, see? See how well it works, sir?<br /><br />And if, as we speak tonight, results move as you predict, then I fear much chagrin <i>chez les</i> Campbells of Gospel Oak, Hampstead tomorrow. But hey, suppose you emailed your Facebook friend, Mr Campbell, some words of consolation. Help him wipe away those sad tears of despair<br /><br />Words like <i>“ … Your Royal Highness, Sir Iain here, if you please, laddie; just a reminder of my twin-prediction on Saturday, 1st August, last year, remember?<br /><br />Blessed be AC, always blessed be, in genuine friendliness, from your favourite crystal-ball gazer, Mr Dale ...”</i><br /><br />Yeah, try that. Oh, but <i>without</i> falling off your chair backwards, laughing, like that<br /><br /><b>TM -------<br /><br />-------------</b>Trevor Malcolm, Portsmouth, Hampshirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03097927129142878297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-56832028909336097422010-05-06T20:31:52.320+01:002010-05-06T20:31:52.320+01:00Hmmm, think you're wrong on Bercow and hope ag...Hmmm, think you're wrong on Bercow and hope against hope that you are on Blinky...This Royal Throne of Kingshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01847832884947135086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-27166580452717539882010-05-06T20:19:12.482+01:002010-05-06T20:19:12.482+01:00Tricia
I think you have may have confused Jon Cru...Tricia<br /><br />I think you have may have confused Jon Cruddas with Jon Cryer.<br /><br />The latter was beaten by James Brokenshire in Hornchurch last time. The former is restanding as sitting MP for a reconfigured Dagenham against Simon Jones and a ragbag of others. <br /><br />Mr Cryer, after a few years out following his defeat, is now the Labour candidate for safe Leyton and Mr Brokenshire, the Conservative candidate for somewhere safe south of the river as his seat, Hornchurch, has subsequently has been merged with Angela Watkinson's Upminster.<br /><br />The MP for Hornchurch upto 1997 was the great Robin Squire.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01952550278660027732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-70664062287909035322010-05-06T20:05:41.151+01:002010-05-06T20:05:41.151+01:00Wildly optimistic I would say.Wildly optimistic I would say.awkwardgadgeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630247572900639086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-28827481478455588462010-05-06T18:58:41.541+01:002010-05-06T18:58:41.541+01:00I looked at the betting odds in each constituency,...I looked at the betting odds in each constituency, took every favourite and here are the results:<br /><br />Conservatives: 326<br />Labour: 210<br />Lib Dems: 82<br />SNP: 9<br />Plyd: 4<br />DUP: 9<br />SDLP: 2<br />SF4<br />Others: 3<br />(One constituency to vote later)<br /><br />Mr Brown can prepare to hang up his boots.Jim Arnotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14356635992356879870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-3087427329202080502010-05-06T18:30:39.057+01:002010-05-06T18:30:39.057+01:00I reckon mostly correct except...
7. sadly may be...I reckon mostly correct except...<br />7. sadly may be wishful thinking<br />12. it will be charles clarke at 10.05pm<br />13. see 7.<br />19. assuming he doesn't do it on the basis of the exit poll<br />20. the surprise will be sir reg empey, if he wins south antrimUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09409868485872221645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-66472747102026559422010-05-06T15:32:03.807+01:002010-05-06T15:32:03.807+01:00I think your turnout prediction is way too optimis...I think your turnout prediction is way too optimistic - 65% is the best we can hope for.<br /><br />I'm also sticking with the view that the Tories will be the largest party in a hung parliament - although that won't stop Cameron claiming outright victory. <br /><br />A bolder (and riskier prediction): Sarah Teather will beat Dawn Butler in Brent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-22820127890652309192010-05-06T14:52:55.294+01:002010-05-06T14:52:55.294+01:00neilreddin - that made me smile!neilreddin - that made me smile!thespecialonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06514789597629728269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-75339735027241042092010-05-06T14:16:51.735+01:002010-05-06T14:16:51.735+01:00Someone, somewhere will complain that they wanted ...Someone, somewhere will complain that they wanted to vote for Nick Clegg, but couldn't find his name on the ballot paper.<br /><br />(Bonus points if they're in Hallam).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-32463548772633934562010-05-06T13:58:31.305+01:002010-05-06T13:58:31.305+01:00As long as you get No 1 right - oh and No 11 wrong...As long as you get No 1 right - oh and No 11 wrong.Graham De Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02569735840312032370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-77868788552003972492010-05-06T13:58:31.306+01:002010-05-06T13:58:31.306+01:0018. Gordon Brown will resign as Labour leader by t...18. Gordon Brown will resign as Labour leader by the end of Friday.<br /><br />Come on. please give us a time on friday? Everyone bets friday. The political betting sites say by 3pm.Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456462562170192857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-12291628873739471012010-05-06T13:54:52.916+01:002010-05-06T13:54:52.916+01:00Paddy / Prickled - he isn't brave and he isn&#...Paddy / Prickled - he isn't brave and he isn't sticking his neck out.<br /><br />He's just claiming that Cameron is going to win outright (standard punditry) and the rest are all pretty solidly predictable anyway. The only one that is unlikely, apart from Cameron's outright win, is an increase in Tory votes in Scotland sufficient to give them a few more seats. Chris - on that point I meant that saying "1-4" seats is obviously meant to suggest an increase.<br /><br />Still, personally I think it would be nice to see more than one Tory MP north of the border - as that way the Conservative Scotland website could say "MPs" instead of "MP" in it's major tabs!DespairingLiberalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02903904463236135611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-17050334533571248232010-05-06T13:42:44.713+01:002010-05-06T13:42:44.713+01:00"Simon Jones will oust Jon Cruddas at Dagenha..."Simon Jones will oust Jon Cruddas at Dagenham & Rainham". I hope so as Simon is another Epping Forest protege, but let's remember that actually James Brokenshire ousted Jon Cruddas from Hornchurch at the last election. Then the Hornchurch seat disappeared in the boundary changes, with the Rainham part of it going in with Dagenham. So Jon Cruddas has been out of Parliament since 2005.Triciahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08712877057472152069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-57826674655872841612010-05-06T13:21:53.610+01:002010-05-06T13:21:53.610+01:00Gosh you are a very brave man! But then again by m...Gosh you are a very brave man! But then again by making 20 predictions you are bound to get at least some right.Pricked and Tickledhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02297204094607657890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-10051308745565649792010-05-06T12:28:46.964+01:002010-05-06T12:28:46.964+01:00Well done for sticking your neck out, Iain.
Here&...Well done for sticking your neck out, Iain.<br /><br />Here's another (unlikely) one: it will all come down to the result from Thirsk and Malton, which is being delayed until May 27 because of the death of the UKIP candidate. Should be a Tory hold for Anne McIntosh but with the Tories one seat shy of outright victory, Gordon Brown refuses to leave office until the voters have been heard as Labour *only* need to overturn a 14,000 majority.Paddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17790241838601339104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-31448724957462997452010-05-06T12:12:40.304+01:002010-05-06T12:12:40.304+01:00Iain's prediction that the Tories majority wil...Iain's prediction that the Tories majority will be only 12 and that David Cameron will claim victory between 7 and 8am is not possible. I understand about 20 seats aren't even going to start counting until 10am on Friday morning. Unless all these constituencies are all safe Labour seats and as such wouldn't have any bearing on the outcome, an 8am result would be unlikely.<br />However, a Tory majority of 30 to 40 seats would allow David Cameron to claim victory around breakfast time and I predict that will be the outcome of today's poll.Straight with you Nick?https://www.blogger.com/profile/01373574625261742820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-71853556554682483312010-05-06T11:54:21.046+01:002010-05-06T11:54:21.046+01:00Hope you are wrong on the following
6, 8 (I wish...Hope you are wrong on the following<br />6, 8 (I wish) and as to No 11 God forbid................Lizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15672242555151212918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-25532043362876314372010-05-06T11:52:27.450+01:002010-05-06T11:52:27.450+01:00@Despairing Liberal - you are very confusing! Iain...@Despairing Liberal - you are very confusing! Iain has predicted the Tories will win at least one but not more than four seats in Scotland. You seem to think that is too optimistic. So your prediction is that the Tories will win no seats at all in Scotland. Is that right?Chris and Laurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13546434673164522680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-7442776362519019332010-05-06T11:45:11.184+01:002010-05-06T11:45:11.184+01:00Servalan - I commented earlier on Farage's cra...Servalan - I commented earlier on Farage's crash and whether it would have an bearing on the election in Buckingham - but now we have more details on the story I think we should spare a thought for the pilot and his family. I understand he's seriously injured. <br /><br />On the subject of Bercow - like you and Iain, I think he'll win because there are too many other candidates. A straight fight with Farage would obviously have been closer. You say "Plus the vast Tory vote seems to be holding up for him." But how on earth would you know?Chris and Laurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13546434673164522680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-31815393895586019052010-05-06T11:43:18.757+01:002010-05-06T11:43:18.757+01:00Is that a list of predictions? Or a wish list?Is that a list of predictions? Or a wish list?Lolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04586735342675041312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-10666682898253123092010-05-06T11:36:00.586+01:002010-05-06T11:36:00.586+01:00Predicting "between 1 and 4" Tory seats ...Predicting "between 1 and 4" Tory seats in Scotland isn't much of a prediction. They're only in with a shout of winning between 1 and 4.<br /><br />I'm not sure that Cameron will be able to claim victory by 7am, certainly not as far as a majority is concerned. He'll be happily able to say they're the biggest party before that though.<br /><br />Oliver Letwin will win easily. I honestly think Ed Balls could lose. And I'm not sure that Brown will be gone by the end of Friday - he may still be hoping to work out a Liberal deal by then.<br /><br />The results DO show the need for electoral reform, and they're not even out yet!eoghanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02408335744825873080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-39786735468014979552010-05-06T11:34:21.043+01:002010-05-06T11:34:21.043+01:00I'm not clear why you say I'm a laughing s...I'm not clear why you say I'm a laughing stock Iain - is it because I make people laugh? Hurrah! Anyway, to go back to the actual question, you are predicting an uptick in Tory support sufficient to win you some seats there. I am saying this is exceptionally unlikely. You may disagree but why is that a complete joke? Let's see tomorrow - I think you'll find I was right - there will be no significant increase in Tory support sufficient to win them extra seats in Scotland. Unless you are just using the range "1-4" as a sort of non-prediction prediction?<br /><br />Nearly all of your predictions are in fact quite easy - John Bercow to hold? Duh. Esther to get a pasting? Nap.<br /><br />The most predictable one is you mark the LibDems down 2% on the most recent Poll of Polls - yet in all the last elections going back many years, they gained more than the pollsters said they would. Isn't it in fact far more likely that they will get more this time? Let's assume they get the usual 2% more than the pollsters say? Using the BBC calculator, that would give the LibDems 93 seats. I have placed a bet on them winning 90-100 seats.DespairingLiberalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02903904463236135611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-8248397832908781512010-05-06T11:25:49.930+01:002010-05-06T11:25:49.930+01:00Lauchlan McLean said...
“You will be wromg , wrong...Lauchlan McLean said...<br /><i>“You will be wromg , wrong , wrong about Berk Bercow surviving in Buckingham.”</i><br /><br />Er. I live in Buckingham. John Bercow is in fact very popular as a constituency MP. Plus the vast Tory vote seems to be holding up for him.<br /><br />So I’m more than happy to take a bet on it if you are interested.<br /><br />Present guess is plane-crash Farage will be a distant 3rd.Simon Gardnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17189501697856123305noreply@blogger.com