tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post113848686106172972..comments2024-03-04T17:54:32.559+00:00Comments on Iain Dale's Diary: New Poll in Sunday Telegraph Puts Tories Ahead AgainIain Dalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138548137932899802006-01-29T15:22:00.000+00:002006-01-29T15:22:00.000+00:00If they can keep up a 6% monthly growth till next ...If they can keep up a 6% monthly growth till next Christmas they will get all the votes. The difficulty is telling whether you are being pulled up the roller coaster or have reached the top. <BR/><BR/>The alternative is that there really is a honeymoon effect & a real but short term lib dem loss & that the Tories are going to wake up barely more popular & with half there PPCs replaced by young, one legged, black women with no political experience.neil craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09157898238945726349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138542294742322322006-01-29T13:44:00.000+00:002006-01-29T13:44:00.000+00:00The media never talked about Howard the way they d...<I>The media never talked about Howard the way they do Cameron.</I><BR/><BR/>Howard got quite coverage until Hutton didn't go as planned.James Hellyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18087240576156086979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138499423246402912006-01-29T01:50:00.000+00:002006-01-29T01:50:00.000+00:00I think it feels different. The media never talke...I think it feels different. The media never talked about Howard the way they do Cameron. The whole tone is so much more positive. Cameron is expected to do better and that in itself will become a self fufilling prophecy. Political journalists are bored of New Labour they want the next election to be competitive.Modern Conservativehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03127759903808913476noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138494945362653272006-01-29T00:35:00.000+00:002006-01-29T00:35:00.000+00:00I don't remember us getting about 34-35% at any pe...<I>I don't remember us getting about 34-35% at any period during his leadership.</I><BR/><BR/>Can I refer you to the YouGov tracker? <A HREF="http://www.yougov.co.uk/archives/pdf/TEL020101018_24.pdf" REL="nofollow">Link (PDF)!</A><BR/><BR/>From November 2003 (what happened then?) through to April 2004 the Conservatives had a pretty consistent lead over Labour, and was around 38 to 39%.<BR/><BR/>The point is that Howard couldn't sustain that - bet the shop on Hutton, etc. and lost. <BR/><BR/>The problem Howard had was that the people who were undecided about his leadership (and the leadership qualities polls showed there were a lot of them, as there is with Cameron) largely decided they didn't like him. <BR/><BR/>Something quite so pronounced is unlikely for Cameron (anyone would have done better following from Howard, simply because he was perceived as being so extreme), it's by no means certain that he can sustain this polling. <BR/><BR/>FWIW I supported Davis and I don't think he would have delivered results as quickly. But as he would have been trying to sell our side, rather than just remove anything associated with it, I think he would have more sustainability.James Hellyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18087240576156086979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138493910797760992006-01-29T00:18:00.000+00:002006-01-29T00:18:00.000+00:00How pleasant anonymous. Perhaps you could login ne...How pleasant anonymous. Perhaps you could login next time... or are you another Lib Dem that refuses to come out?Chris Palmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17270498803593841764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138489052768402812006-01-28T22:57:00.000+00:002006-01-28T22:57:00.000+00:00You Tories are going to have to wear some more sac...You Tories are going to have to wear some more sack cloth for a while yet - this poll is just a repeat of the one in the Guardian earlier in the week - Tories 1% ahead.<BR/><BR/>Not exactly tip top performance for the opposition and just because it was worse under Hague and IDS I wouldn't be measuring up the curtains for No 10 just yet!<BR/><BR/>Looks like the Great Helmsman was right once again - let you lot wear youselves out trashing everything you once believed in and when you're no further forward wait for the Bill Cashes of this world to got over the top...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138488834472355702006-01-28T22:53:00.000+00:002006-01-28T22:53:00.000+00:00I'm not sure you're right. I don't remember us get...I'm not sure you're right. I don't remember us getting about 34-35% at any period during his leadership. But you may be able to prove me wrong. Of course it's early days, but on December 6th I think I'd have settled for being where we are now after 6 weeks. Of course if DD had won we'd be in the mid 40s by now! :)Iain Dalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03270146219458384372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214838.post-1138488198330838032006-01-28T22:43:00.000+00:002006-01-28T22:43:00.000+00:00It was the YouGov poll that showed Labour one poin...It was the YouGov poll that showed Labour one point ahead. <BR/><BR/>And I wouldn't use this as too great an excuse for joy. When Michael Howard took over we enjoyed an almost identical sized boost in the polls for a number of weeks (albeit from a much lower base). <BR/><BR/>The point was that Howard couldn't sustain that. We don't know if Cameron can either.James Hellyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18087240576156086979noreply@blogger.com