This is from my Eastern Daily Press column today...Gordon Brown’s political obituary has been written many times over the 22 months of his short premiership. This time, though, my political antenna tells me that he is in real trouble. And that spells bad news for the Tories. It has been a humiliating week for the Prime Minister. It started with the ridiculous YouTube video in which he seemed to be obeying orders to randomly smile during his three minute monologue on MPs’ expenses. He then travelled to Pakistan only to be snubbed by the country’s President. Next stop was Poland, where the Polish PM lectured him about his “ridiculous” levels of borrowing. Back home he suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Nick Clegg and the Gurkhas and a day later had to back down over parliamentary expenses in order to avoid a second Commons defeat in two days.
Political commentators are apt to use the phrase “It was the Prime Minister’s worst week ever” rather too often to be taken seriously. Yet on this occasion it is warranted. Labour MPs are wandering around the Commons in a state of despair. Those with marginal seats are already planning for their post parliamentary careers. Leadership speculation is starting again, with David Blunkett telling Gordon Brown he has lost touch with voters. The LabourHome website is speculating furiously about a stalking horse about to put his head above the parapet and openly challenge the Prime Minister. Most people assume the MP being talked about is none other than Norfolk’s very own Charles Clarke. He would no doubt reject the ‘stalking horse’ epithet and consider himself to be a serious challenger. And in many ways he is, but his trouble would be raising the number of signatures of his colleagues to get on the ballot paper.
No, there are only two ways for Gordon Brown to go. One is voluntarily, and the other is for seven or eight Cabinet Ministers to tell him the game is up and if he doesn’t quit they will resign from the Cabinet. This won’t happen yet. But following the County Council and Euro elections on June 4th, I can envisage a scenario in which it does.
One Labour MP said privately this week that Gordon Brown was hating the job as Prime Minister. That wouldn’t surprise me. Often when you get something you have waited for it doesn’t turn out to be as good as you had expected.
I must admit that if I were Charles Clarke I would be thinking very carefully indeed about how I played this. In a post-Brown scenario Charles Clarke could indeed have a very important role to play. He is a big beast of the political jungle, and if there is a lot of broken crockery to pick up Charles Clarke should be seen as the man to put it back together again, not as the man to have broken it in the first place. If the latter happens, he will not easily be forgiven by some of his parliamentary colleagues.
So why would Brown’s departure be bad for the Tories? Because they see him as their greatest electoral asset and are very keen that he should not be fatally wounded. Their saving grace is that there is no readily available heir apparent who would be more electorally popular. Alan Johnson is the only Labour politician who strikes just a shard of fear into Tory hearts, but it is highly unlikely he could be persuaded to do the job. Most Tories, of course, pray for Harriet Harman to be the Labour Party’s chosen one. Every Tory Christmas would have come at once. But the big beast lurking in the background is Jack Straw, that great survivor of regime change. Having seamlessly transferred his loyalties from Tony Blair to become Gordon Brown’s leadership campaign manager, Straw is being touted by many commentators as the ultimate ‘man in a grey suit’ who would lead the delegation to tell Gordon Brown that the game is up. Straw, however, may care to think about Michael Heseltine’s* dictum that “he who wields the knife never wears the crown”.
And who said politics was boring?
*UPDATE: Of course, that is not strictly true. Margaret Thatcher and Paul Keating tend to lend weight to the opposite viewpoint.
45 comments:
One of the worst analyses you have written. Labour are doomed to 20 years in the wilderness, God willing. There is not one decent member of that Party bar, maybe, Frank Field, who has a streak of decency in them.
Oldrightie:
Don't forget Bob Marshall Andrews as well.
Much as I abhor Labour; credit where credit's due.
But apart from them - I think Labour should all be lynched for what they have done to our once great country.
Surely McDoom will cling on, hoping for something to turn his way?
It is simply not in his nature to resign from a position he has bizarrely craved for most of his adult life.
The economic figures from the US are looking very much more rosy now, and business confidence levels are rising sharply there.
Many US economists now talk about how resilient this years's recovery will be.
If Britain's economy begins to grow at some stage during the second half of 2009, he will have something concrete to point to.
Economic recovery did zilch for Major of course, but McDoom surely cannot contemplate giving No10 up at the behest of a few of his cabinet pygmies?
"a stalking horse about to put his head above the parapet"
Perhaps its a giraffe
Why wouldanyone worry about Jack Sinister? Nothing but a spineless, discredited, chameleonic popinjay.
A very good column Iain, spot on. Brown is the Tories No 1 asset. It would be great great for the country if Brown went, but it wouldn't be so great for the Conservatives. Although I do think they are going to lose the election whoever is leader.
I think we have moved beyond the point at which we should be playing party calculation. Leave that to Gordon. The fact is that Gordon is toxic for the country, we should put country before party and get rid. The damage that could be done by a PM who puts partisan advantage above all else is immeasurable and it is the duty of the Conservative Party to put an end to it.
Iain,
Labour have only one possible saviour and that is Gordon Brown. If and it is a mighty big if Brown were to rise from the dead and improve his personal stature (IMO impossible)then Labour might minimise the deserving fate that awaits them.
Rolling out anyone else now to fight the next election would be sending a lamb to the slaughter.
Who is waiting in the wings. Johnson who has admitted he's not up to it and was first up to defend Smeargate? Brown's head henchman Balls ? Harman and her loony left? The Moribund Brothers? The Strawman (who has those unspoken skeletons). The rest are all virtual unknowns to the public. 12 months is not long enough to introduce them.
All these suggestions of someone else saving Labour are just the delerium of condemned Labour supporters who have just found out their final appeal has been turned down. They know the latest date of execution and the clock is ticking....
Those on the right doing it are just being mischievious or naive.
An Iraq inquiry could implicate Straw in the Blair cabinet machinations in the build-up to the war.
Well, Oldrightie, I loved your comment over at the Graun about Polly's latest ramblings but I think you're being a tiny bit harsh here.
Sure, I don't buy the 'Brown is our best electoral asset' notion for one minute. You play the team in front of you. If you start worrying your oppo's players too much, you're not concentrating on your own game.
But surely Iain Dale's right about how unlikely it is that the bad ship Broon might finally be sunk by a friendly-fire torpedo, ala the SS Geoffrey Howe.
It's very difficult to imagine anyone from the endangered species of invertebrates on the Lab. front benches, or the vast swathe of jellyfish behind them, having anything like the wherewithal necessary to bite the bullet and do the necessary deed.
Much more likely (yet still unlikely) is that Brown will step down of his own volition. Fat chance at the moment. But, as several commentators in the qualities have said today (as you know-doubt know), things will be very different after the Euros. Matt Parris, eg: the entire cabinet is 'gutless' (especially Straw) and "To oblivion, then, with the whole damn lot."
Amen to that, but it's still a wish. My own view is that our cuckoo PM is finished and will be out by September - but that's just a guess and not one shared by very many folk, it seems.
You are right though to say that Labour will be out for a generation. With Blairites defecting to the Lib Dems (why would they want them?!), Labour could be heading for third party oblivion.
And good riddance to bad, very bad rubbish.
The trouble is that it isn't just Gordon Brown who has been failing all this time, but the entire Labour party has been exposed as morally and financially bankrupt. There is almost nothing that Labour can do to redeem themselves.
Sorry, Iain, Oldrightie is spot on.
There are two dangers which may have an impact on the Tories:
MP's expenses and a dramatic improvement in the poll ratings for the Lib Dems.
On expenses. I do believe the tories will be found to have had their noses in the trough as much as the labour party. This will benefit the Liberal Democrats.
As the Lib Dems move up the polls. Nick Clegg will prove to be quite a shrewd operator.As he has over the Iraqi war, Gurkha's, 10p tax, and many issues. I have a small wager on the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition after the election.
I may put a few pennies on Charles Clark and Milburn joining the Lib Dems amongst others -which will give their shadow front bench much gravitas.
You may be right in that another 12 months of Brown's idiocy will create a Lbour wipe out, but if the Labour kick him out now the Tories will still have a field day. As in 'clearly you now agree that he's NBG. We always said he was NBG. Therefore all you and he have done for the last 12 years in NBG'. I mean the man is clearly bonkers, as some of us I will remind you, have always said. And my judgement of his sanity and competence was based on his initial act of taxing pensions which revealed his complete cluelssness about capital and economics.
How Charles Clarke thinks that losing an Opposition Day motion or a House matter (which is always a free vote) is some sort of killer blow, I honestly cannot imagine. Mortifying to Georgia Gould or Georgia Osborne, perhaps. But Gordon Brown is a big boy. As is Charles Clarke. Or so we had thought.
Not very long ago at all, any MP who stated publicly that he was ashamed to be in the Labour Party would have been told that that was all right, because he was no longer in it. Close the door on the way out. Twenty years ago, or thereabouts, two Trotskyist MPs were expelled from Labour. And forty years before that, or thereabouts, so were half a dozen Stalinist MPs.
The old Stalinist Clarke and the old Trotskyist Stephen Byers should at the very least have the Whip withdrawn, probably taking Haze of Dope with them, and possibly also a couple of others such as John Reid. The Mandelsons, Milibands and Huttons inside the tent could then take the hint.
How many parties are there on the Labour benches? Supposedly, there are two: the Labour Party and the Co-operative Party. The maintenance of any third has historically been crushed without mercy. Why is that not happening today?
I'd tend to agree, the Tories have yet to really win the election, their success depends greatly on Gordon Brown's unpopularity. Until we come out fighting, a pre-election heir to Brown could be a real problem for Cameron. The bookies seem to favour seem to be Harman and Miliband. The first would quite rightly be Christmas come early, Miliband however, could be more dangerous for the Tories.
"One of the worst analyses you have written. Labour are doomed to 20 years in the wilderness"
I disagree.
The one thing that doesn't add up is labours recent opinion polls.
You would think with the dire straights of the economy, all the dirty tricks, they way they have destroyed british culture I could go on on...that labour should be massacred in the polls. They are not they usually get near the 30% mark.
The british public remind me of football supporters, they can be very fickle.
It was only last month brown got a g20 boost.
If they get a new leader if I was labour I'd get alan johnson I wouldn't be surprised if labour won.
I must have missed the G20 boost, something cooked up by the desperate Liebour sycophants at Pravda TV. G20 offered us nothing, and His rubbing up to Obama only hurt Obama ( or made Him stink a bit.)
Unfortunately for the Tories- some of us are old enough to rember the last Tory car crash under Major
If Alan Johnson strikes a shard of fear into Tory hearts it's time to worry about how Cameron is perceived in the eyes of the public.
And Straw as a Big Beast - oh please ! If Blair was Janus (the God with two faces) then Straw is a really big beast (but he is a very small man without principles) - he has more faces than a set of dice !
Everyone I know thinks that he is the ultimate tosser ! Not much ability but tries to be all things to all men.
Our trouble, as floating voters, is that Cameron is seen as another Blair ...... see which way the wind blows and go with it - or spin - or use semantics so that the back door is still open when you appear to promise things.
Some things have to remain fluid, but some can be carved in stone - Cameron has never done that. A Conservative victory is NOT a forgone conclusion. It's really possible, honestly, that New Labour could retain control, even if in a coalition, as Cameron is not totally trusted by uncommitted voters as a leader with convictions and policies.
It's a touch like '79, but he's no Thatcher - at least she said what she would do before an election ..... so no complaints when she did it.
The Blairites don't want Brown to go yet, if he leaves now the likes of Harman or Balls could get in ( with New Labour's voters running to the Lib Dems). What they want is for him to hold on and take all the Old Labour lot down with him next year so that New New Labour can be reborn.
Could I make one or two suggestions for the playlist on your Tuesday show Iain . . . . . ???
Don't believe that stuff about defections to the Lib Dems- just more smears from the bunker!
Labour will lose the next election and they will have a civil war in their party.
It is likely that they won't be be in a position to challenge the Tories for a very long time
However, if the war is short and decisive, or if it breaks out before next summer, it may only take two terms in opposition to get their act together - very unlikely though.
Labour needs an Alan Johnson or Jack Straw type of figure to lead the party in opposition, although I don't think Johnson has the will to take his party on.
The next Labour Prime Minister? He or she probably isn't even an MP yet (or even old enough to stand for Parliament!)
Gordon Brown seems very thick skinned and appears like he doesnt really care what the public think... until now. When every man, woman, child, newspaper, blogger are slating him off, I cant see him surviving until June. Even my garbage bin is screaming for labour to go following his ludicrous war on waste campaign and his food police joke! I agree he is an asset to Tories, but enough already!! Call the election now!
Another troubling factor is I think the majority of the public hate labour rather than like the tories.
There is something about cameron which could be slippery. People are unsure about him.
I'd like boris johnson or william hague to lead the tories myself.
Jack Straw ? I remember him as Pres of the NUS, that was about his level.
I hope the Labour party ceases to exist, simple as that. If a truly leftist party rises from the ashes so be it but Labour, in all its hypocrisy, sleaze, dishonesty and sheer unpleasantness of leading personnel must die.
@Guthrum: Unfortunately for the Tories- some of us are old enough to rember the last Tory car crash under MajorSome of us are even old enough to remember the previous Labour car-crash, compared with which (and the present shower), John Major and his cabinet of feral weasels seemed calm, collected and supremely competent...
Charles Clarke is no big beast of the political jungle. He is a nasty, embittered has-been. His record in office is dire, his rancour as obvious.
None of which is to say that he couldn't yet spark the inevitable. He may well, in his twisted way, begin the process that topples the great McLunatic.
I hope so.
But I don't see him as the great saviour.
He is yesterday's man writ large.
Of course, this may yet make him all the more dangerous. Nothing to lose, etc.
But please don't see him as our saviour.
You could always ask him sto stay; there are some great names on the list!!
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/support-the-PM/
You could always add Tony Blair or David Cameron.
Surely the message which needs to be coming out of Conservative Central Office, Day In, Day Out [DIDO] is that whoever is leading the Labour Party THE AMOUNT OF THE UK TOTAL NATIONAL DEBT IS NOT GOING AWAY !!
That message needs to be repeated ad infinitum, ad nauseam until they get the message that the problem isn't simply Gordon, it is the spendthrift policies which make promises of any more spending worthless, and any policies which cost money simply undeliverable.
The political jousting from Guido is an amusing side-show, but it is not something the Conservative Party should be touching with a barge pole.
If half a dozen cabinet ministers threatened to resign, wouldn't Gordon respond by calling an election?
A huge amount of complacency is already creeping into the Tory party.
What f**ks me off royally is that until 6 months ago, Cameron was on an 'Obama' trajectory. Many of the policies he is espousing to get the US back on its feet were ones which Cameron could steal.
Many of the policies on environment were ones which could be shared with the President. But now I can see the Tory Toff element creeping back because of the 50% tax rate, and the likes of Simon Heffer and the bloody Spectator crowd having the whip hand.
This is unacceptable - Cameron has spent his life de-contaminating the Tory brand so that 'Obamacons' could vote for it. If he is going to allow the imbeciles like Derek Conway and the Wintertons to drive his policy he might as well flush the next manifesto down the toilet now.
Please tell me he is not going to be someone else who gets into power and then sh!ts on Mondeo Man and reverts to Old Etonian policy like thinking that the environment is 'safe in the hands' of business and that 'self regulation is the best regulation' in the City, 'cos that is how we are in the mess we are in at the moment.
Gordon Brown's final victory would be if he buried the 'New Tories' at the same time 'New Labour' has failed. He needs to be progressive and liberal with lower taxes and less government. Just like Obama.
"Charles Clarke is no big beast of the political jungle. He is a nasty, embittered has-been. His record in office is dire, his rancour as obvious."
I hate to argue with omnipotence, but how ridiculous ! Of course he is a 'big beast' of the jungle. He IS the 'heffalump' ! Why else do you think he has those huge ears ? And a trunk ?
"But the big beast lurking in the background is Jack Straw, that great survivor of regime change. Having seamlessly transferred his loyalties from Tony Blair to become Gordon Brown’s leadership campaign manager,"
Exactly. Not only did probably all the likely candidates for telling Brown the game is up sign his nomination papers ...
... but also Straw was actually his campaign manager.
Are we really saying that someone so lacking in perspicacity is fit to be PM? Could anyone take him seriously? The same really applies to all the 300+ labour MPs who likewise thought so much of Brown.
Change leader? Better to spend time rearranging the deck chairs.
All very ironic really given that for the last few years under Blair they wanted rid but were frightened of causing the same splits that so contorted the Tories after Maggie went.
A lot of wishful thinking from Mr A (6.03)
Tories are not complacent.
Tory toffs on 50p? (like Byers eh?) In fact the Tories are not rushing to cancel 50p
And why? Because of massive levels of debt that Darling is addling us with.
Your conjectures Mr A are facile. Conway is not standing again.
No one has a whip hand and the 'bloody spectator crowd' seem a bit left wing to me.
Anonymous - what the heck are you talking about? I'm a Conservative activist, and not just in my local Association, and nobody I know is complacent about the outcome of the General Election.
And could I remind you that Conway no longer has the Conservative Whip, and Heffer has declared for UKIP - the last thing Cameron will do is take advice from either of them.
I think it will be Alistair Darling!
John Major Mk2?
Think about it!
can I recommend that everyone reads Nick Cohen's excellent article on Standpoint. It is one of the best I have read.
Of course Gordon is the Tories biggest electoral asset. The Tories need Gordon in order for them to have a chance of winning the next election. Dave is not winning, Gordon is losing. If Noo Labor were to get their act together Dave might see the door of No 10 disappearing into the distance.
The moment Derek Draper calls Gordon a "window-licker", he will be terminally doomed.
An interesting analysis Iain but my personal instinct is that it is too late for Labour to dispose of Brown. I might be proved wrong but I can’t see it happening.
There is a remarkable complacency shown in the postings on this blog. That complacency is borne of recent history where we have had long periods in power from the two main parties, eighteen and twelve years respectively.
History has a way of making the extraordinary seem inevitable. The election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 was extraordinary and her victory in 1983 was seen as inevitable in 1984 but it was not seen as that way in 1981. That is because the Falklands War had intervened. This was rightly seen as an a brave and independent British defence of our rights and the rights of the Falkland islanders, against a fascist regime. Mrs Thatcher was seen to have taken great risks in a righteous cause.
The extreme circumstances of the 1981 recession had, until the Falklands War intervened, threatened to land us with Dr David Owen as Prime Minister.
The current situation is far worse than 1981. That recession was the last true “blue collar” recession, so it affected natural Labour voters much more than natural Conservative voters. Yet, Labour was as discredited as it is now and so people looked to the SDP.
The next government, whoever they are, will have to drastically cut public spending. This will be an attack on the new constituency that New Labour has built itself, the public sector. Presuming that the next government is Conservative, then these people will be in the same position as those “blue collar” workers in 1981, fed up with Labour but blaming the Conservatives for their plight. They will be looking for a new party and I suspect that new party could be an alliance of New Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
The current debate in the Conservative shadow cabinet regarding Trident points to the most likely long term effect of this recession for this country. The loss of our position as a major world power. The U.K. has three main foreign policy interests: The UN; the EU and the Commonwealth. I can already hear the “Little Englanders” laughing but our seat on the UN Security Council makes us a major world power per se. Our position in the Commonwealth actually does the same, although no one in this country takes much notice of this, except professional diplomats and HMQ, the Head of the Commonwealth. The EU is more difficult but we are a major country in the EU. The abandonment of Trident signals that we are ready to give up our world power position, as it effectively removes us from the nuclear club. The EU would dearly like our seat on the UN Security Council and the Chinese would like to form deeper relationships with many resources rich Commonwealth countries. The John Major idea of strengthening Britain in the EU by EU expansion which would provide us with allies has only really partly worked. Central and Eastern Europe can be very fickle. I think that the price of this recession and the endless living beyond our means will be an abandonment of our world power status and a consequent inability to carry out actions such as the Falklands campaign.
Given the necessity to cut the public sector and the reduction of our status in the world, I believe that a new Liberal Democrat / New Labour Alliance could be a beneficiary of a 2014 / 2015 election.
It would be an interesting idea for Total Politics to plot the composition of the post 2010 election House of Commons ( I do not think there will be an election in 2009). Iain, your friend who did those fantastic constituency programmes on 18 Doughty Street would be perfect for the task. Say we believe that most Labour MPs with an 8000 majority are at risk then what is the political composition of those likely to get back. Old Labour or New Labour? How does this affect the outcome of any leadership election and crucially is either Old Labour Harman or Cruddas are likely to win. This should give us an idea of the likelihood of a Liberal Democract / New Labour alliance.
History teaches us that at times of turmoil the British electorate and indeed, most electorates are volatile. The age of parties who win three or four successive elections may be dead.
If Brown does go in the next few months then Staw would seem to be the logical candidate to take over. He is the only one that wouldnt rip the party in two.
My guess is that he would clearly see that he had no mandate and call an autumn election.
He would still be in his honeymoon period and everyone would be glad to see the back of Brown therefore Labour would avoid a wipeout. But they would still loose.
Brown isn't going anywhere. We've heard this all before, if such-and-such results are dire Labour will force Brown out. It never happens. Firstly, because Labour rules are so convoluted as to make any challenge an automatic bloodbath (the Tory dumping of Thatcher in 1990 would look like a clean kill by comparison) with you needing 20% of the PLP, and Conference to vote for a vote before a serious challenge could even begin. Secondly, the big beasts of the Labour party have shown themselves to be unwilling to take the necessary risks - they'll only bet on a sure thing, and taking down a Prime Minister is never a sure thing. There is no Heseltine, Lawson or Howe who has resigned from the government on the basis of a policy government.
Then there's the second problem. Even if somehow the Cabinet found the courage to force Brown out, who would take over? How would they be different? There is no-one who has been able to carve out a discernably different perspective, and no-one who can point to which policies need to change in order to save Labour. At least with Heseltine, you knew what alternative to Thatcher he offered. At least Major knew he had to dump the Poll Tax to get ahead.
Of the (potential) runners and riders, the only one who gets close to an alternative vision is Harriet Harman - with populist Lefty outbursts on Goodwin's pension and her equality bill. It may be twaddle, but at least she's got something to say. She's also been courting the party. Jack Straw, David Miliband and Alan Johnson are pleasant enough, but essentially vacuous and empty; how would government change under their stewardship?
Here's a "what if?" for you. What if Tony Blair comes back into the public eye in support of Labour during the 2010 campaign?
Tom I think it would be disassterous for Labour. Blair went because he had totally lost people's trust & just because Gordon is discredited doesn't change that. Moreover it would give a chance to ask how much money Bliar has made since he left office, which, while legal, is clearly corrupt & of an order of magnitude to put all the other dodgy expenses combined in the shade.
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