The Plaid Cymru conference, which I attended over that last two days was interesting for a number of reasons, not least that you got the feeling it was a conference of a party in opposition rather than government. The party members seemed to be far more interested in slagging off Labour, who are their partners in government in Wales, than critiquing the Tories or LibDems. Perhaps it is because Plaid regards itself as a rival socialist party to Labour. And therein lies its main electoral problem.
In Scotland, Alex Salmond has successfully created a broader church within the SNP. It is still a left of centre party, but it has dropped a lot of the anti Tory rhetoric and made itself more appealing to more nationalist minded right of centre voters. Plaid has made no move in this direction at all. Maybe it never can, but if ever aspires to lead a Welsh government it will certainly need, not only to widen its electoral appeal towards the centre and to the right, but also to break out of its northern and western heartlands. In south and eastern Wales Plaid has negligible support, barring one or two exceptions. What it actually needs to do is become a truly national party.
The conference itself was quite a fun experience. I spoke at a very lively fringe on blogging and was delighted to find out that such a huge proportion of the conference delegates seem to be avid readers of this blog. So to all those I met, thanks for making me so welcome and confirming Cardiff's status as one of my favourite cities in the UK.
39 comments:
North sea oil did a lot to change the fortunes of the SNP,before that they were something of a joke.
The Welsh were just left with disused coalmines.
Dreadfully badly informed post
You clearly know little or nothing about the electoral politics of Wales.
Plaid Cymru runs Caerphilly council - it's bar far the largest party on that local authority. Caerphilly is in the south east of the country. That's just one of many examples of its support in the south. I would list more, but your ignorance is so plain, it's almost not worth going into the details. Perhaps you should study Welsh political history and come back after you've studied a bit harder.
Welsh Ramblings -
You're entitled to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.
Plaid Cymru doesn't run Caerphilly Council - of the 22 councils in Wales, Labour have a majority on two (Neath Port Talbot and Rhondda Cynon Taff) and the Tories control two (Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan). 18 are under No Overall Control.
Caerphilly has 31 Plaid Cymru councillors, whereas there are 32 Labour councillors and 9 Independents. Not only does it not have a majority, it is not even the largest party.
Plaid doesn't 'run' Caerphilly council - it doesn't run any councils at all.
I don't agree with everything Iain wrote in his post, but if your going to claim he's ill-informed...
A link for those who want to check my maths
http://www.caerphilly.gov.uk/application.aspx?s=lKaXE5OFZEqJ2rzSPcsC+LLo1FhTCct3CxbAOyr/3BglfURe/X9KZuHmmjB3tAAgcC3PoXjAcl8=
Two days for that eh....I reckon your cinema commentaries showed a deeper comprehension and a far more enlightening analysis.
1) Plaid are partners in control of Cardiff City Council (in addition to leading Caerffili as mentioned above). PLaid also have councillors in Monmouth, Torfaen and Newport - hardly Welsh speaking heartlands them...
2) Why emphasis the contrasts with Labour? Maybe because that Plaid's grpwth is coming from ex-LAbour supporters?
We crossed Morus - it's actually 32 each in Caerffili - I'll check who they've missed in the lists. Plaid leads the administration with some independent support.
Is that it?
You had more to say on the BBC 2 Wales interview with Daran Hill sat next to you than this post.
Disappointing considering you were there two days.
Dewi Harries - thanks for the correction.
I think there is a case for saying that Plaid have great potential over the next couple of years to emulate the SNPs success - I fully expect them to make gains in the South East at a coucil level and at the Assembly elections in 2011.
I accept your point that Plaid are in coalition control of some councils, but a better case could be made for Independents, who according to the LGA are the largest grouping of councillors in Wales.
I agree that there is plenty more to say than Iain has included in his post, but to attack him for being ill-informed because he chose not to write a thesis on Welsh nationalism seemed unfair to me.
If I had to suggest the barrier to PC becoming the largest party in Wales, it would be the language issue. There are plenty of non-Welsh speakers who retain a wariness of supporting an agenda that seems so preoccupied with promoting a language that they don't speak.
Tax and spend issues, Plaid is capable of taking huge chunks of Labour support in Wales - the key will be making non-Welsh speaking voters feel like they belong in Plaid. That will be the challenge - is this the party for 'people like me'?
If Iain does return to covering Wales, I'd suggest a look at the Welsh political blogosphere, which always strikes me as particularly vibrant and interesting, contrasted with the limited coverage it gets across the blogosphere in general. It deserves to be showcased.
Fair enough Morus - just I expected (indeed was looking forward to)a little more penetrative analysis - he's been twittering about it all blasted weekend...
8 out of their 14 members of the Welsh Assembly represent South Wales seats. I would say that makes them fairly national.
Watching Rhodri Morgan on his question time on Parliament Channel this afternoon, I couldn't help but be impressed - the man has so much more class than the sorry excuses for politicians that generally make up New Labour in Westminster.
For what it's worth, I found Iain's analysis quite interesting, as a Plaid member. I was particularly interested in his impression about our negative thoughts towards Labour, as someone looking from outside the Welsh political bubble.
On the issue of our political ideology, I think that there is a danger of comparing the SNP with Plaid. Scottish politics are not the same as Welsh, either in terms of their relationship with England, the general left/right balance or on the issue of independence.
Morus,
The language is becoming less and less of an issue as the other parties recognise its growing popularity and become less tokenistic towards it. Iain's argument about Plaid being too far left to control Wales is an interesting one, but Plaid's political agenda is driven by its membership. It is not an anti-business Stalinist left that Labour were once blessed with. We are fundamentally de-centralist, anti-imperialist and internationalist, which is what makes Plaid such an exciting party to be part of.
Seems they should be set for big gaimns then? You would hav ethought so after the New Labour problems or late (meaning 11 years).
Re Rhodri Morgan I agree with despairng Liberal that he appears to impress, he has had his problems but if he and PC (unfortunate initials) pull their socks up they could shock NL (are they still new?)
I don't like Iain's politics, although I very much like his blog - but I'm slightly disappointed by this particular post - it's uncharacteristically superficial.
Plaid has potential for significant growth in some parts of the country, but not in others.
In the areas that have potential sounding like a Tory friendly party is as good an idea as sticking one's head in a bucket of bleach.
Wales ain't England - & neither is it Scotland.
Neil Mcevoy is the one to watch. Take a look at his youtube videos to see how it should be done. He, his sister, and his pal turfed out 3 Labour councillors last year. Pwn. He's a genuine person who gives a damn about people, which is really attractive to voters. He goes off on tangents sometimes and it's a tiny bit embarrassing yet you've gotta love a politician who cares about people and will do everything he can for them. He'll be the one to watch for the Cardiff West seat next year. Sorry Tories. Llandaff is not enough.
We've had 10 years of a lot of money being spent on us and our schools in Cardiff. Take a look at the children coming out of Welsh language schools and you'll find a young generation which is more intelligent and more "born to lead" than past generations of Welsh people. Cardiff has positioned itself well for the future. The next generation will give any Westminster party a tough time if they mess with the Welsh or the Welsh language in any way.
Rhodri Morgan arranged a coalition with Plaid and he's retiring soon. Can't you see that Plaid Cymru are setup to replace him? Tories must be blind if they can't see that. Morgan absolutely must know Labour is dead in his heart (nothing he can do about it).
Plaid Cymru right now isn't perfect. They are not geniuses. What they can do is hold steady and take over Labour votes. When their young ones grow up, say in about 10 years, Plaid Cymru will be much stronger. It's a growing party that has yet to reach its peak, unlike Labour which is at the end of its life.
Cameron has been too reserved by not embracing Wales. He cares about our votes, but he doesn't care about us at all. That's a shame. He should come explore Wales during his summer holiday and he should come watch some Rugby in the Millennium Stadium and have a pint of Brains. There's a lot of hatred of Margaret Thatcher here, but we need to put the past behind us. You did a nice conference last week but it's not enough. You've gotta genuinely love Wales. We're a lovely place, so hurry up and truly love us and the people here and show it openly and as long as you're genuine we'd be happy to stop Plaid Cymru from splitting us up and dropping us in a United States of Europe mess. You've got to admit that in the Thatcher and Major years we were unloved. We wouldn't have been so angry if it weren't true. Love bomb us. We want genuine Tory love! We really love it! Talk about us more! We should be a united Great Britain where each nation loves the other.
Span Ows,
The Welsh political scene is more unpredictable than in England, as it is affected by both Wales and UK factors-whichever election it is.
Plaid are very well organised at present and are to some extent out-performing the other parties. Yet a major voting swing seen through the eyes of the London media will affect Welsh specific politics, potentially cancelling out any potential gains for Plaid. At least the BNP are going to lose here in June!
Wales and England must work together to make the marriage a happy one. Bring back the Thatcher years and we'll file for divorce! We need love, understanding, and co-operation. A happy marriage would be the best thing for our children, so let's do it.
We all know what the major philosophy of the SNP is. Can someone please explain what the major philosophy of Plaid Cymru - the party of Wales - is?
Well I thought Ian's short blog hit the nail on the head.
This weekends conference is perhaps less of a show case for our more positive points than our annual conference in September. That should set out what our agenda will be for a general election.
The broader point that we should be trying to widen our political base and be a much more up front nationalist party is perfectly reasonable. Certainly where I live the people moving towards Plaid tend to be people who have moved here in the last ten years from England, are mostly running small businesses, and are quite comfortable with a nationalist(but not a racist) message and former Labour voters who are moving for a mixture of reasons but know who we are and what we are about.
To be successful electorally we need to put together a coherent message that appeals to both groups and not to put all our eggs in one basket.
The SNp have successfully picked off a part of the Tory coalition, the intelligent end of the busienss community. We could do the same without changing any of our existing policies, just giving extra emphasis to some.
TrulyLoveWalesWinVotes: Divorce away. It can't come soon enough. Just let's go for a clean break settlement and a closed border.
I rather thought these days Plaid wasn’t for that.
I too was hoping for more from Iain, especially on the issue of Plaid's being effectively the second party (and often not by very far) in a great deal of South Wales - certainly at Assembly elections.
To Morus - the language issue may be an issue, but to be honest I don;t mind them promoting a language I don;t speak. Welsh is one of our national languages, and they don't exactly force it on people. I've worked in senior positions in public and private sector for 20 years and never been disadvantaged for not speaking Welsh.
Language is a red herring. If we want to be a bilingual country, like many countries in Europe, we do so. Stopping the centuries-long suppression and marginalisation of Welsh and Welsh speaking culture is an important part of my political and cultural agenda - as an English speaking Welshman, I know that it's part of our history for those of us who don't speak it, as well as the present for those who do.
There are many other reasons to vote Plaid where I live (Cardiff - where in our ward we have 3 Plaid councillors, by the way...), but since you raise Welsh that's my answer.
There's another simple reason for voting Plaid: it's called having a memory. It involved using that memory to remember the tories when they were in power, and to remember the stranglehold the tribal, anti-welsh and completely corrupt and nasty Labour party had over our country until Plaid - and only Plaid - changed the political culture. They did amid the grossest smears and lies, and came out of it winners, and never descended to nastiness of their opponents. Good for them.
Of course, I'm biased.
Apologies for the brevity of this post. I bashed it out on the Blackberry in a layby. May write more later.
Salmondnet,
I'm sorry, but Plaid is not about putting up barriers but building bridges. Mind you as a Civil Engineer I would say that.
The Spring Conference is not a constitutional party meeting so unlike the three National Councils and one National Conference we hold, it does not set policy. We used this year's to involve members more in policy discussion groups as an experiment and it seemed to work.
Ian. Bridges commonly require two ends. Post independence Wales will not be able unilaterally to choose its relationship with England. Take your independence as soon as possible and keep your bridges. We don't need them.
"Take your independence as soon as possible and keep your bridges. We don't need them."
and
"Just let's go for a clean break settlement and a closed border."
Wow - there you have it. I thought we were supposed to be the nationalists!
I find the passive-aggressive streak in the anti-Welsh strand of the Anglo-Nationalist outfit rather parodic: on the one hand they tell us we aren't clever enough to go it alone and how much we need them, on the other hand they tell us to piss off all the time.
Fortunately most Englishh people aren;t as chippy as Salmond-net, and we're looking forward to being good neighbours. Salmond.net can build Offa's dyke out of play-doh and leave the rest of us to it.
Pavlov - a really interesting comment, as have been many others on this post.
I think Plaid have played it sensibly to this point, especially downplaying full independence, which would not have widespread support I don't think.
I studied Welsh until GCSE (before compulsory) and think it a wonderful language worth cherishing and promoting (in the real sense). However, I would be extremely disappointed if a new Welsh Language Act was passed along the lines that have been mooted.
I'm now something of a West Briton now I live in London, and I think there is room for a left-wing nationalist party to be extraordinrily successful over the coming years, but I do wonder if the efforts of Cymdeithas yr Iaith Cymraeg are given too much legislative prominance, whether that might alienate a lot of non-Welsh speaking Welsh voters - even if the measures are quite tame, there is a tendency that it could be seen as creating divisions in generations where the opportunity to learn Welsh wasn't available.
That said, it is a wonderful part of our heritage and I think the support its been given the last 20 years is really starting to pay off.
On the language issue I thinks it's time to move on. Let's just become a normal bilingual country -if capitalism can cope with bilingual packaging in Quebec I'm sure Wales would not be a big wow.
Take the issue out of politics once and for all.
Ahh Pavlov. You feel you can predict the future actions of the "Englishh" people. Predict the behaviour of your own people by all means. When you decide you know how others will react you simply reveal how presumptuous you are. Try and get your head round the idea that it takes two to determine a relationship.
I don't think you're not clever enough to go it alone. I just fear that you may be too clever to try,
Whether or not you want to be good neighbours is of no importance. England, free of Scotland and Wales, can be governed on the basis of English interests alone, neighbourly or not. That will be a great improvement.
“England, free of Scotland and Wales, can be governed on the basis of English interests alone, neighbourly or not. That will be a great improvement.”
And while you’re at it Cornwall would like independence from England.
Oh an Kent ‘can be governed on the basis of Kentish interests alone, neighbourly or not. That will be a great improvement.’
Just where do you want the Balkanisation to stop?
The SNP are not a left wing party Iain. They are Nationalist and uber-Tory in Perth (having taken up the strain from Tories) nd Nationalist and red-Socialist in Glasgow (having won from Labour).
They are like Lib Dems in that regard. NOT Lefties. Opportunist chameleonae.
But unlike the Lib Dems they do at least have one distinctive policy = independence. As do Plaid on the QT.
But Plaid are not exclusively leftists either.
Agree with the comment about Rhodri Morgan. Wonder if the electorate could stand some more fundamental democratic socialism all round? Not exactly a lurch to the left. But a stop to the lurching to the right would be something.
Again, AFAIK, Plaid abandoned the independence thing some years ago.
Dewi Harries said... “On the language issue I thinks it's time to move on. Let's just become a normal bilingual country -if capitalism can cope with bilingual packaging in Quebec...”
On language, Belgium is busy splitting - very much on language lines (so that didn’t work very well) and do you seriously believe any putative Québécois government would allow English to continue being used officially?
Then you know wrong Simon - go check walescan.com
OK. So I had a look and apart from the straight rip off from Obama, what has this got to do with current Plaid policy exactly?
Morus - I agree with you re the language, and you speak it better than I do (my generation is the generation whoseparents were told not to pass it on as it was inferior, and which was not allowed welsh-medium education).
I don;t see what's fightening about a welsh-language law. It's still only limited equality, and doesn;t cover many typres of business.
My view is that businesses which operate in parts of wales with, say , a certain percentage of population welsh-speaking should employ that percentage in their business. That way in north wales there'll be a majority (and the advantage of employing locals - very important), and in south east wales, say, 10%. It's fair isn;t it?
Simon - I worked for 2 years in Belgium, and 5m months in Quebec. Both are excellent places, with better food, better social services and more cultural diversity than the UK. If Wales can get a smidgeon of their self-confidence and clout I'd be happy. If you want cuationary tales of what can go wrong, look elsewhere. The South Wales I grew up in in the 70s and 80s was pretty cautionary tale, I can tell you, in terms of cultural and economic decline, corruption, cultural underconfidence and ill-health.
The Balkans analogy is stupid: the Balkan nations were forcibly yoked together by communist dictatorship. They forcibly broke up. Everyone remembers the violence fo the break-up, but conventiently forgets the violence that yoked them together and the violence that kept them thus for 40 years. Pointless analogy: inaccurate and ill-informed, and showing no sense of proportion of historical literacy.
Salmond.net. My mother was English, my wife is English, and I don't need lessons on what English people want or think from you. But thanks for the offer!
Salmonet,
Why so bitter? I am a strong supporter of a progressive outward looking English nationalism. Such a development would be the end of the BNP, which would be good news all round. You English are an understated lot you know! Blowing your own trumpet a little more would not hurt, although the current emphasis of slagging off the Scots in doing so, is not very productive.
Morus,
The new Welsh language act will actually enable many to make more use of Welsh, without having many cost implications. Only the multi-nationals are likely to be expected to do more; the very same companies who operate through dozens of languages across the globe. The development of Welsh is actually very exciting and has given hope to many minority languages everywhere, as well as having the support of all the UK parties.
Simon Gardner,
I'm sorry that you have fallen into the trap of suggesting 'Balkanisation'. The long struggle for Welsh self-determination has been predominately based on peaceful campaigns and democratic debate. Plaid as a party considers anyone living within Wales and respecting its culture as Welsh, wherever their place of birth, ethnic origin or religion. Many of our elected representatives were not born here (including Derby born Dafydd Wigley).
As far as independence goes, it is our official long term political aim. 'Walescan.com' is a new site encouraging people to debate the issue, after our opponents accused us of ducking it. You are bery welcome to contribute.
Is this the Iain Dale who seemed to spend every spare moment at conference in the foyer on his sodding computer? He barely looked up - doubtless checking up on the Hammers. From his comments on his other website he didn't want to be there and this posting confirms that.
Still, at least it helped pad out AneurinGlyndwr for another day.
OK. So I had a look and apart from the straight rip off from Obama, what has this got to do with current Plaid policy exactly?
Um...it IS current Plaid policy. I'm sure you're trying to make some sort of point here but I can't see it. Plaid's official policy is independence.
Plaid Wrecsam, in case you hadn't noticed, I was manning an exhibition stand for Total Politics. And yes I did have my laptop, but I also spoke to at least a third of the people attending the conference including all the MPs and many AMs - which was rather the object of the trip. Shame you didn't say hello...
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