Sunday, December 07, 2008

Who Should Be the Next Speaker?

Vote HERE

With several MPs declaring they have no confidence in The Speaker, speculation is rife about whether Michael Martin will either be forced out of office or voluntarily resign. He's letting it be known that he intends to go on, but I suspect that he will, sooner or later, see that the writing is on the wall for his speakership. There are five scenarios, each of which is likely to produce a different successor.

1. He is forced out of office in the next two months.
2. He announces soon that he will step down in the Spring.
3. He announces in the Spring that he will stand down just before the Summer recess.
4. He announces that he will stand down at the next election
5. He makes clear it is his intention to go on past the next election

If Michael Martin is forced out, it makes it much less likely that Labour MPs would vote for a Conservative successor. Tribal loyalties will win the day. Paul Murphy is the compromise candidate being much discussed in Westminster, although it would be odd to go straight from the Cabinet into the Speaker's chair. Others are suggesting that Sir Ming Campbell might well be a compromise candidate around whom the whole House could unite. Some Labour MPs are saying they would be happy to support John Bercow on the basis that it would annoy the Tories. But several Tories of my acquaintance have told me they would make it their business to ensure that he didn't get a sniff of it.

The most likely departure scenario is that Michael Martin will announce that he will step down in the Summer, of his own volition. This is what Betty Boothroyd did in order to allow her successor a year to 'bed in' before the subsequent election.

In February I did a similar post to this, listing my top ten tips to succeed Michael Martin. I think that little has changed since then, although I would replace Vince Cable in the list with Paul Murphy and promote Sir Ming Campbell higher up. This list is compiled on the basis of Michael Martin stepping down in the Summer of his own volition.

1. Sir Alan Haselhurst (Con)
For: Been deputy for many years and performed well when Gorbals Mick was ill. Popular across the divide.
Against: His age, although he's the youngest 70 year old you'll ever meet.
Odds: 3-1

2. Sir George Young (Con)
For: Respected, with wide experience of political life.
Against: Seen as a toff by Labour MPs.
Odds 3-1

3. Sir Ming Campbell (Lib)
For: Liked and respected and would gain support of the whole House
Against: Age and health
6-1

4. Paul Murphy (Lab)
For: Not tribal, consensual
Against: Currently in the Cabinet
7-1

5. Sylvia Heal (Lab)
For: Has few enemies.
Against: Has few friends on the Tory or LibDem benches.
12-1

6. Alan Beith (Lib)
For: Has no enemies.
Against: Seen as incredibly dull.
Odds: 20-1

7. Frank Field (Lab)
For: Liked and respected by most MPs who've never worked with him.
Against: Over Gordon Brown's dead body.
40-1

8. Sir Patrick Cormack (Con)
For: Deep love of Parliament and knowledge of procedure.
Against: Age and battlescars from reselection.
40-1

9. John Bercow (Con)
For: Independent minded, turned off by party politics.
Against: More popular with Labour MPs than his Tory colleagues.
Odds 66-1

10. Sir Michael Lord (Con)
For: Experience
Against: Regarded by most as having had his day
80-1

Outsiders

David Davis - Has made clear he doesn't want to do it, but might he be persuaded?
Andrew Mackinlay - A true Parliamentarian, but government unlikely to be in favour
Ken Clarke - Would be popular but terribly bored
Keith Simpson - Would be a more traditional speaker and provide great entertainment
Michael Ancram - Liked, has the necessary gravitas
Bob Marshall-Andrews - Stop gap until the next election? Bring it on!

If you have any further suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments.

And don't forget to have your say and vote in my poll HERE.

For what it's worth, and it isn't much, if I had a vote, it would go to Alan Haselhurst.

45 comments:

Unsworth said...

Marshall-Andrews for me. At least he's had the guts to take independent lines in the teeth of Party Whips, he's eloquent, quick witted, very knowlegeable and has great charm. Mr Speaker needs all of those attributes to order the House and to move things on. He also has been a very decent constituency representative. I think he'd make a fine choice.

Mitch said...

Even a tub of lard would be better.

barry monk said...

Lembit?

Yousuf Hamid said...

'Gorbals Mick'? Come on Iain, you're better than the class stereotypes!!

BSH said...

Yousaf, just because someone comes from the Gorbals doesn't necessarily say anything about class, unless you make it so!

Catosays said...

How about Quentin Davies? He's every bit as treacherous as Gorbals Mick.

Gordon said...

Edwina (on Sky news) has just said that if Martin tries to stay on as he intends, the SNP will put up a candidate and win. I don't if she's correct but it would make things interesting

Anonymous said...

The SNP had a candidate up against him at the last election.

Speaker Michael Martin 15,153 53.3 -13.8
Scottish National Party John McLaughlin 5,019 17.7 -0.5
Socialist Labour Doris Kelly 4,036 14.2 N/A
Scottish Socialist Graham Campbell 1,402 4.9 -3.2
Scottish Unionist Daniel Houston 1,266 4.5 +0.3
British National Scott McLean 920 3.2 N/A
Independent Joe Chambers 622 2.2 N/A
Majority 10,134 35.7
Turnout 28,418 45.8 +1.9
Speaker hold Swing -6.6

Paddy Briggs said...

Derek Skinner

Catosays said...

Paddy Briggs said...

Derek Skinner


Shorly shum mishtake!!

Willie said...

Ken Clarke would be the best in every possible way...

Chris Paul said...

BMA is a possible stop gap. A vain man. Someone passed over as stalking horse by Labour MPs in case he thought he should be a real candidate.

Gerald Kaufman is also a possibility. He seems determined to serve four more terms.

Tony Lloyd might be a more long term idea. If he were willing to take it on. Has other fish to fry and a lot of good politics in him, but the tights would be tempting. Not.

But I'm thinking Speaker Martin will stay in post to GE unless there is some new ammunition against him. Even then he might stick.

Ken Clarke would be excellent if there was to be an (unusual surely?) opposition pick OR if Martin holds out to GE. Goes from strength to strength etc.

Only one woman in the 16 names mentioned Iain? How about Jackson G or Abbott D or indeed the cross-party fave Hoey K?

Footnote: I think Tory attacks on Martin are becoming attacks on the class. This is not going down well. Speaker is Everyman/woman.

Bond007 said...

I don't think there is a chance in hell that a non-Labour speaker will be elected. That's not Labour's style.

Chris Paul "Footnote: I think Tory attacks on Martin are becoming attacks on the class. This is not going down well. Speaker is Everyman/woman." - the attacks are coming from all sides.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

I would go for Dr Tony Wright if it had to be Labour, Ken Clarke for the Tories.

Poor old Ming just seems too doddery.

Whatever. It's time to have a Speaker who is educated properly and can read from a prepared statement without sounding like he's in 3c.

neil craig said...

If he decided to stay on I foresee him not getting a clear run in his constituencey. While his is normally a safe Labour constituency (like Glasgow East) there are no such in Scotland now & the SNP are already making noises about finding a Martin Bell style independent.

Unsworth said...

@ Chris Paul

Amazing how attacks on 'class' are all one way, isn't it? What about all these comments such as Tory Toffs, Bullingdon boys, Millionaires etc etc. Are these not attacks on a particular 'class'?

Gorbals Mick deserves the name, not because of his humble origins but because of his attitude and actions. Did anyone use the same language about Thomas, Weatherill, Boothroyd etc? Of course not. But, naturally, you declare this to be a matter of 'class'. So you define 'class' as a matter of origin only. What about all these self-made men? Are they too 'lower class'?

Seems to me that the 'Class War' is just one sided blind prejudice.

David Boothroyd said...

The Speaker gets annoyed by the "Gorbals Mick" gibe because he is not from the Gorbals at all, but from Anderston which was a much rougher area even than Hutchesonstown (correct name for Gorbals).

An Independent candidate is unlikely to win; the situation is quite different from Tatton in 1997 because that was concerned with a personal scandal on the part of the sitting MP, not a political argument about their performance. I also suspect the SNP cannot find a proper independent candidate who is not an obvious SNP stooge; Martin Bell was never a Labour stooge.

Note that previous Speakers have served in partisan office: Weatherill was a Conservative whip; Thomas was Welsh Secretary; Selwyn Lloyd was Chancellor.

Unsworth said...

"Weatherill was a Conservative whip; Thomas was Welsh Secretary; Selwyn Lloyd was Chancellor."

Yes indeed, but when they took on the role of Speaker they had enough sense to put those appointments to one side and carry out their duties impartialy - or at least with an appearance of impartiality. The current incumbent clearly believes that he is an arm of the NuLab Government.

Do you think he'd prefer to be called 'Anderston Mick', then? Perhaps this could be raised as a point of order.

David Boothroyd said...

It's ludicrous to suggest Michael Martin behaves as part of the Government (forgotten his decision on the Osborne SO24 application?), and this thing called "NuLab" which you happen to have invented is nonexistent.

A few weeks after George Thomas took over he was heard instinctively saying "Hear hear" to a Harold Wilson speech.

MikeyP said...

I would like to see Kate Hoey installed. She might be Labour, and therefore lacking in common sense, but at least she is honest.

Anonymous said...

David Davis or Frank Field would be spot on but then I remember it's the twats in Westminster who decide.

Nigel said...

>> I think Tory attacks on Martin are becoming attacks on the class. This is not going down well. Speaker is Everyman/woman.<<

One might argue with rather more justification that those defending the Speaker are doing so for party political reasons.

Everyman ?
Try over promoted party hack.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Why shouldn't it be an attack on class? After all class is class. I don't want some schlep from a council house running the country.

Does Martin read any books? Does he drink anything other than brown ale? I bet he even has a carpet in the lavatory.

Jimmy said...

For the 99th time, alternation is a myth. The Speaker has always come from the majority party save on the one occasion it failed to agree a candidate. On this ground alone, seven of Dale's picks can be immediately ruled out.

BNA may be perversely attractive to Labour as it would be his only realistic chance of preventing a Tory gain in his seat.

Summer said...

"Footnote: I think Tory attacks on Martin are becoming attacks on the class. This is not going down well. Speaker is Everyman/woman."

Nothing to do with the man's sheer incompetence, hypocrisy, sleazy behaviour and general unsuitability then? Or are you saying that only 'one' class has these attributes?

For a Labourite to attack the Conservatives on class is a joke. What about Tory Toffs, Burlinghton club etc. Or is it OK for you but not others?

According to socialists if you attack a non white person you are racist; if you attack someone with working class roots, that is a class attack; and there has to be a woman standing in everything or it is sexist.

For heaven's sake just judge people fairly on their competence, honesty and the good they do!! That is the way to fairness, that is non-discriminatory, and that is how we get equality. And there is plenty of evidence to show that that is the only way to a decent society.

Martin and Everyman? That is offensive to those of us who truly are ‘ordinary people’.

I cannot wait for the day when Labour and all their lying, spinning, deceit are rooted out of our country for good; every single stinking bit of it. Perhpas, we the ordinary people, will then build a statue for the fourth plinth in Trafalgar square with the inscription "NEVER AGAIN".

Anonymous said...

Iain, why is the speaker called "Gorbals Mick"?

It is obviously an attempt at an insult considering he isn't from the Gorbals.

Is it because the Gorbals was a traditionally poor area and therefore a reference to his working class roots, or is it because he is a Catholic and therefore a reference to the famously Catholic area of Glasgow?

You wouldn't call fellow Glasgow MP Mohammad Sarwar a Pakistani Mohammad or Islamabad Mo, so why the allowance here?

Willie said...

http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/sam_akaki/Hasn_t_the_British_premier_become_like_our_Museveni_76362.shtml
Have a look at this to see the absolutely on the money take in the leading Ugandan newspaper, the Daily Monitor, on this affair. Makes you proud to be British eh?

Iain Dale said...

It's been his nickname in the Commons ever since I can remember. For God's sake, it's a nickname, nothing more.

Catosays said...

In the United Kingdom, the Speaker of the House of Commons is the presiding officer of the House of Commons, and is seen historically as the First Commoner of the Land. The current Speaker is The Right Honourable Michael Martin MP, who took office in 2000 and was re-elected on 8 May 2005[1] following the 2005 general election.

The Speaker presides over the House's debates, determining which members may speak. The Speaker is also responsible for maintaining order during debate, and may punish members who break the rules of the House. Conventionally, the Speaker remains non-partisan, and renounces all affiliation with his or her former political party when taking office. The Speaker does not take part in debate nor vote (except to break ties, and even then, subject to conventions that maintain his or her non-partisan status). Aside from duties relating to presiding over the House, the Speaker also performs administrative and procedural functions, and remains a constituency Member of Parliament (MP).

Historically, the Lord Chancellor presided in the Upper House of Parliament, the House of Lords. However, this function devolved to a separate person, the Lord Speaker, under the Constitutional Reform Act 2005, in July 2006.

So, is it suggested that Martin is impartial..I think not. He should be but he isn't. And as to Thomas saying 'hear hear' then that portrays him as partisan..does it not?

Catosays said...

Whoops, sorry ...should have added the above is from Wikipedia.. but forgot...mea culpa

strapworld said...

Whilst it would be good to have a speaker from a different party. I doubt that Brown would want that.

What would be good for everyone. If the wheelchair bound Woman Labour MP was to be considered.

It would be good for disabled people if she was elected. There may have to be certain changes to the speakers chair, but what a superb message it would send out.

She always asks very intelligent questions and I am sure, being a woman, she may well turn out to be another Betty! and she was v.good.

Anonymous said...

Norman Baker - he seems to be generally unpopular across party lines.

Jimmy said...

"According to socialists if you attack a non white person you are racist; if you attack someone with working class roots, that is a class attack; and there has to be a woman standing in everything or it is sexist."

It's got so bad a politician can't even use the word "piccanniny" without the PC brigade jumping on them. I feel for you I really do. Someone should start an organisation dedicated to the rights of the white middle class. Oh you have?

"You wouldn't call fellow Glasgow MP Mohammad Sarwar a Pakistani Mohammad or Islamabad Mo, "

Want to bet?

Anonymous said...

Why not Margaret Beckett?
After all she just displayed the right qualities by telling a great big whopper on SKY NEWS -

Apparantly Boris sacked the Met Police Commissioner.
And for good measure the Tories are intimidating the police!

And PS ... I was brought up in a mid terrace with an outside toilet with a crack in the lavatory seat. So I am over qualified to say this .... Martin is a pillock.

Shut the pi$$ up you lefty trolls.

Man in a Shed said...

Sir Humphrey Malins. He's a Judge as well as having an independent mind ( as evidenced by his resignation from the Shadow Cabinet over Iraq ).

He's got a keen mind, independence of spirit, a sense of honour, and he knows the law.

Little Black Sambo said...

"You wouldn't call fellow Glasgow MP Mohammad Sarwar a Pakistani Mohammad or Islamabad Mo, so why the allowance here?"
What has "allowance" got to do with it? It is people saying what they want to say, not being allowed. Free speech, remember?

Anonymous said...

Iain, it's a pejorative term and you know it. I have no problem with offending people, but at least have the guts to acknowledge it.

I see you are being defended by someone who calls themselves "Little Black Sambo".

I wonder why?

Null said...

Me.

Adam Penny said...

The fact that everyone assumes that a replacement Speaker would be Labour seems to be evidence that most people believe that the office of speaker has been corrupted by this government, so what's the point of replacing him?

Anonymous said...

@barrymonk

yep

lembit ...innit

itsa joke ..need a joker

David Boothroyd said...

The new Speaker would be elected by a secret ballot so predictions are difficult. However, if it was perceived that Michael Martin had been forced out by snobbish high-class Tories who wouldn't have an RC sheet metal worker from Glasgow about the place, then Labour MPs would be more likely to agree a single candidate and stick together to see them through.

Those who want a Tory Speaker are in danger of winning the battle but losing the war if they force Michael Martin out. In any case the normal rule is that the Speaker tends to enjoy their new neutral position and cause more problems for their own former party than for the other main party.

Incidentally, the high praise which is heaped on Betty nowadays disguises the fact that she was not so much admired in her earlier days in the chair; there was the embarrassing Michael Mates statement in 1993 and several Labour MPs remained privately critical long after.

James Dowden said...

Or there are some really unconventional possibilities. How about Lady Sylvia Hermon?

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Humanzee said...

6. Alan Beith (Lib)
Against: Seen as incredibly dull.

I don't know enough about this chap to say either way but for the role of speaker, is incredibly dull actually a negative?

JPT said...

Sharon Osborne.
(or Ozzy?)