The Sunday newspapers are full or stories about Gordon Brown's leadership - or lack of it - and the mutterings among Labour MPs about a leadership challenge. The Independent on Sunday's excellent new political editor Jane Merrick predicts that Charles Clarke will put himself forward as a stalking horse and has enough names to run. The Sunday Times has a graphic (not online) of all the runners and riders in any putative contest to succeed Brown, depicting them all as jockeys.The consistent them in all the articles in the suggestion that Jack Straw would be a caretaker leader. Strange that all the newspapers follow the same line. Surely friends of Mr Straw haven't been briefing?! It is also pointed out that Straw is unhappy with the 42 days anti-terror proposal.
Gordon Brown is in danger of creating a 'perfect storm' for himself, a matter of days after being pictured with the star of the Perfect Storm movie, George Clooney. Within the space of a few weeks he will get a drubbing in the local elections, lose a vote on 42 days, suffer a rebellion over the 10p tax rate and a further one on welfare reform. And who knows what further crises will rear their heads in the next two months? The usual way to resolve this is to bang a few heads together among backbench rebels and have a Cabinet reshuffle. There are two reasons why this won't work. There are very few talented Ministers waiting in the wings to join the Cabinet and it is not obvious who Brown could sack without losing face. After all, it was only nine months ago he appointed them in the first place. Secondly, the Labour rebels are now way beyond the usual suspects of thirty or forty serial rebels from the left. They now include a whole host of MPs in marginal seats who are afraid of losing them. The latest YouGov poll in the Sunday Times shows another 16 point Tory lead and very unflattering figures on Brown's performance. No wonder they are bricking it.
But let's take a reality check. Newspaper journalists appear to believe that a leadership challenge in the Labour Party is as simple to hatch as in the Tory Party. The rules are unclear. The odds are stacked in favour of the incumbent leader in a way in which they are not in the Tory Party. I think we are a long way from Brown being ditched. At least I hope we are. He's the best asset the Tories have got.
42 comments:
He won't get a drubbing in the locals (London will fall to Ken, though I don't know what good that does his arch-enemy Brown, and there are various Metropolitan Boroughs that will slip out of Tory hands).
Even if he did, why do Tories insist on judging Labour by Tory standards? Cameron made 900 gains last time and still got calls for his head after Grammargate. Brown could lose 900 - but Labour has LOYALTY. Underestimate it at your peril.
Suggested chants for Footbal fans today:
Six-teen points, clap, clap, clap,
Six-teen points, clap, clap, clap,
Go-in' down, Gordon Brown, go-in' down,
Go-in' down, go-in down, go-in down.
Well, it's nice to have a little gloat, isn't it?
Anon@10.18
"but Labour has LOYALTY. Underestimate it at your peril"
We don't underestimate it, we are banking on it.
Browns too bovine to take the hint. The people hate him,his own party hates him and after Boris takes London ken will blame Gordon then like ferrets in a sack they will turn on each other meanwhile the poor country goes to wrack and ruin.
ps to any ministers reading this..announcing another terror alert just cos gordons in trouble is too obvious and we can all see through it these things only work once maybe twice.
It should be highlighted that Jack Straw is not as nice as he may seem- he has done irreparable damage to this country.
He introduced the Human Rights Act which is the most unpopular legislation produced in recent decades as it has led to uncontrolled immigration and myriad problems and lunacies such as favouring one religious group above all others with positive discrimination.
His follies are such that the Foreign Office has had to tell the Royal Navy not to detain pirates in case it offends their human rights.
Straw claimed only 14,000 East Europeans would come to this country in the first year of lifting controls - he was wrong by a factor of 50 or even more.
This former Allende supporter must be put under the spotlight so the electorate can judge him for what he really is.
Well, since LyingLabour's 1997 victory it has been 'the comedy of errors'. Since Broon took over it's been one silly self-inflicted wound after another- amazing since he had a relatively good start as PM. His actions over the flooding of last year were spot on; but his stupidity over the election that wasn't was the beginning of the end. Tactically, letting Gordon sit in Tony's chair was the WORST thing Labour could have done to themselves. You can't have a Jock, Taff, or Paddy sitting as PM whilst the devolved Parliaments/Assemblies are established. Britishness is now dead and buried, only clung onto by the establishment wishing to pull 'all the parts of the country together (as well as all the immigrants here against the wishes of the majority)'. So whilst Broon sits in Downing Street he/LyingLabour are seen as anti-Jock & anti-English and part of the age old 'tired' set up in Wales. The funny thing is all could have been avoided if Broon had shown some 'courage' and done 'what was needed to be done' with regard to the above:i) ban non-English MP's voting on English matters;ii) reduce the number of non-English MP's at Westminster and have seats based on population evenly across the country;iii)call the Nats bluff over an independence referendum; iv)encourage a greater 'English' identity. All of the above will be enacted sooner- or later...
"London will fall to Ken"
How can it fall to Ken when Livingstone is the mayor at the moment.
It would be highly amusing if London will fall for Boris.
We are all aware that political commentators refer to a "tipping point" from time to time, in the context of a leader or a party becoming untenable. I wonder if Gordon has reached it now.
I read with increasing wonder that the papers are all saying the same thing. Now, I am not privy to the way this works, but I do not buy the fact that the entire press is being manipulated. I suggest that the weight of evidence, the weight of public opinion, and the mountain of doom laden scenarios (e.g. the local elections)is coalescing around one clear fact; Brown is toast.
Have we reached the tipping point?
"There are very few talented Ministers waiting in the wings"
Didn't you mean :
There are very few talented Ministers in the cabinet" ?
Alan Douglas
Sorry to say this may be good Sunday paper material, but nothing will come of it. At least for now. How many years of 'his time is up' articles on Blair did we have before he took the hint. The fact is there Brown has a solid parliamentary majority, ages to the next election, an opposition that is firing only fitfully and no credible alternative in his cabinet. He's safe for at least a year.
Time Will Tell (above) is absolutely right. Jack Straw is the guilty man in much of the harm done to this country other than the specifically economic damage which is all to Brown's credit. And the bugger still has his hands firmly around the neck of our constitution, exerting yet more pressure on the jugular. Watch him. A dyed-in-the-wool lefty in the gent's natty suiting of a centrist, he has always been slippery, subtle, dangerous and very ambitious.
I suppose a good a hammering in the local elections won't exactly lighten the mood in Drowning street either!
"[Brown]'s the best asset we've got"
I dunno, Iain, can you imagine a Prime Minster Balls?
Why will Labour get drubbed in the local elections? The number of councils they hold is virtually at an irreducible minimum. In their Northern heartland they are solid even though they only command 27% of the vote nationwide.
The big losers will be LibDems in the South who will be crushed whilst even losing seats in such as Liverpool and Newcastle.
Expect BNP however to take some Labour seats.
In what way do you think the Labour system is so much harder than the Tory one Iain? Perhaps you could explain how the two systems work so we can check your working on that assessment?
Or is it just a nonsense spout?
PS Perhaps the LP rules can be changed and Ken can be installed as leader and PM after his get out of jail victory by 10 points in the London Mayoralty?
Brown will hang on until the last minute.Do you really think he waited for 10 years for pope antoninus blair to leave-only to be PM for 9 months?
No way - he will carry on making a twat of himself and fools of us.
If Jane Merrick is so excellent, she'd know that there's no such thing as a stalking horse in the Labour Party these days. If over a hundred MPs sign a round-robin that could trigger a contest, but Clarke wouldn't get ten. No-one else would either. I'm not a political editor, merely a member of the Lobby but anyone - everyone - knows that. Come on, Jane! Brush up!
Interesting article by Martin Kettle in the Guardian yesterday which supports your views Iain:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/12/labour.gordonbrown1
For God's sake. Can we have a reality check? I've just read the post again, and I can't believe the naivety...
Caretaker leader - you don't have caretaker Prime Ministers. Just for a second, imagine the scenario - Straw or someone else takes over (Labour rules say that in the event of a leader resigning or becoming incapacitated, the Cabinet elects one of its own number to act as leader pro tem, and therefore PM)
If that happened, and Straw was chosen (by no means a sure thing), there is no way anyone would run against him. Clarke and the left wouldn't get a look-in. The Cabinet would shut up shop.
So the question is, who would the Cabinet choose, and how? Alternative vote? My guess is that it would be done on a show of hands and that the person with the highest total would emerge, as the others would stand aside. I think that person would be Straw or possibly Miliband, though Harman's not totally out of the question. She'd have her own vote, maybe some of those of the other women in the Cabinet
But there's no way on earth that Gordon is going before the next election, unless his health gives out or some family tragedy strikes. He'll cling on, as PMs tend to, and probably lose, allowing the party to sort itself out in opposition, not have a bloody civil war whilst in power (which could rule it out for a generation).
He won't go of course, but who would replace him? Who is the JOHN MAJOR figure that a traumatised shattered party could turn to for succour?
They need a complete nonentity.
An absolutely anonymous individual totally bereft of their own ideas but ready to spout party rhetoric constantly.
Someone without overbearing 'Brownite' or 'Blairite' credentials.
Someone completely non threatening to the labour party's exisiting heavyweights, who they feel they can control as a little puppet figure, while holding real power themselves.
A grey figure, nice but useless.
Someone utterly boring and always predictably dull with their comments.
Someone to unite the Party, however disastrously this turns out, until the real leaders gather themselves for an assault on power in 15 years time.
Hmmm .. a tough ask but I nominate
CHRIS PAUL.
Finally that great Clunking intellect may become an asset.
Come on chris..feed your dreams...
Whether the rules favour the leader or not, Brown's position might well soon be untenable.
The fiascos of the 10p tax rate and 42 day detention are surely signs of a politician who does not know what he is doing.
If Boris wins London, local election results are bad, the government is defeated in the Commons and opinion polls continue to show a strong Tory lead, the pressure on Brown will be unbearable.
He might even go mad.
Alan Johnson on the Politics Show:
Used the, Gordon might not win on personality, but it is on policy where he is ahead, line.
How long will the government continue to trot this nonsense out? The worst thing was that John Sopel did not tell him he was talking nonsense.
In the last week, Brown has been seen with George Clooney for a 'summit' at Downing Street. Shirley Williams said on Any Questions that she had asked the MOD about the possibility of donating helicopters to be used in Darfur, and was told it was not possible. And then suddenly George Clooney comes out of Downing Street and claims he was happy and surprised to learn from Brown that they may be able to donate some helicopters. Strange how they seem happy to talk to an actor, but not a British political figure.
When you add this to his awkward, weird appearance on American Idol, it's just a lie to claim Gordon is not interested in using his showbiz links to help his plummeting popularity...
Brown is no different to Blair with spin, it's just that he is rubbish at it!
Can I stalk Brown with a high powered rifle ?
Time Will Tell - I endorse every word of your post. Anyone but Jack Straw should be the theme. He is the nastiest and, I think,is genuninely evil along the lines of Tony Blair, person in government and must not get his hands on the reins.
Gordon Brown's deeply emotionally and intellectually inadequate, but he isn't scheming to destroy the United Kingdom. Jack Straw is cut from the Tony Blair template and cannot wait - as in, cannot wait to get his feet under the table in Brussels and have the streets closed as he rides by so peasants don't impede his passage. Remember his trip down the MI at 114 mph? The rules do not apply to Jack! He has Nomenklatura stamped all over his shifty weasel face.
OK So who is to be the new Liebor Chancellor the new Liebor with the gravitas to give us all confidence he has everything under control
The only person with any real sense and an understanding of the real world plus ideas is Frank Field.
Lets just all chip in and buy Gordon a peerage and get rid of him
Post Office pay back time coming soon to a ballot box near you!
interesting blogs Iain
Brown's U turn on cluster bombs is another damaging one for them
obviously the blind like chris paul will still be supporting cluster bomb Labour no matter that 60% of the victims are children
but for a public with moral compass don't under estimate this one
God I wish they could install Ken Livingstone although another two years if having to listen to his childish prattle is a lot to put up with.
What I find interesting is that as the slightest economic tremor has done for Brown not only is his always laughable reputation for competence suffering but the whole idea of a third way Consensus is retrospectively re written
Instead of the future it increasingly looks like a luxury delusion possible only in conditions of extreme borrowing and globally driven growth. We are right back where we were . All Labour Governments run out of money. At this rate the field will be clear for rolling back the Blair state and reasserting the Nation.
Can it be that we can still save the country before Flint floods it with more immigrants as she plans for her eco slums . There is still time.
Brown wouldn't give a fig to lose the Prime Ministership. He's done his part in destroying Britain's independent existence with Lisbon, and is now ready to focus on his Progressive Governance campaign, which will place the IMF in effective control of the economies of all western 'democracies'.
He'll be in the US next week promoting the new powers which the IMF needs, and trying his hardest to upset Obama'a progress.
Clinton is sold out to the EU/US project of having a single controlling agency (previously known as government), and only Obama stands in the way and wants democracy to survive.
Brown will get a cushy job as Strauss Kahn's lapdog, with the job of bringing America on board the new IMF.
Britain's already fixed and does not need a Prime Minister any longer.
I suspect that the Labour machine will be very effective in mobilising the poor to vote for Livingstone in London. There is just too much complacency that a lead in the polls will translate into an easy Boris victory. I have a sneaking suspicion that these polls are based on ringing people who (a) have landlines, or (b) dont immediately hang up when someone who sounds official rings them up.
1. Jack Straw has wrecked everything he has touched - including wrecking (I think actually bankrupting) NUS travel when he ran the NUS. He would be a bad choice to replace Brown...
2. ...but, Brown will never let go of the reigns of power because it has been his sole focus for 30 years. He has an ego twice the size of Blair's! He will leave Downing Street when he is crow-barred out by the electorate, and not a moment before.
3. Then he will resign his seat as Blair did and then focus on his new role at the IMF, spending his time seeking to subvert democracy on a global scale!
4. The good news is, for the first time in over a decade, I actualy think the Conservatives might actually win the election.
The question is, what we will do once we run the show? Will it be the same as before, or will we start to change things for the better?
It would be insane to get rid of the PM. From a strategic point of view Labour should either let him stay until the economic lows are over. So he can get the blame, then choose a new leader, or keep him until the next election.
Either way getting rid of him now does not make sense. It would mean the next leader would get the blame for any economic downturn and the tories would then take over. Clarke is not any more charismatic then the current PM So what would be the point?
In reply to April 13, 2008 10:43 AM You are a racist. It seems we can have a English PM but not a Scottish one we can have a English head of state queen or king but not a scottish one. Basically your argument is Scottish should know their place. As for you racist terms of taff jock paddy grow up. You are not funny.
If the PM is not allowed to be Scottish we should end the union It is English racism. English people can rule anywhere it seems. :
Here is good joke!
The more recessions you have the more popular you are as PM.
Look at the current PM who has had as chancellor and PM no recessions.
Thatcher had two recessions.
Who is the greatest PM in the view of the UK public.
Yep you guessed it Thacther.
What the PM must do is have a recession. Appoint a former head of Enron as his new chancellor. LOL.
'Stupid European Socialist' does not recognise the sheer inanity of his comments. The Jock/Taff and Paddy Parlies/Assemblies are RACIAL bodies- hence Scottish Parliament etc. Try and keep up dear. That is why it is extremely unlikely anybody English will be First Minister of ANY of these bodies. What is 'good for the goose is good for the gander': why should a Taff/Jock or paddy have any say over what happens in England. Moron.
Bill Quango MP said...
"They need a complete nonentity.
...totally bereft of their own ideas ...utterly boring...
Hmmm .. a tough ask but I nominate
CHRIS PAUL."
Perfect reasoning. Excellent choice. I second that.
Newmania said...
"Can it be that we can still save the country before Flint floods it with more immigrants as she plans for her eco slums ."
Probably not.
"There is still time."
Unlikely. Even if there were, the useless Tories wouldn't do it.
That article also misses out Milburn.
Is there some MSM/Westminster Village group denial over this guy or something?
"The Smartest thing Alan Milburn did was convince the world he did not exist".
If Clarke is stalking, I bet he is stalking for Milburn.
simon you are a the stupid extrrmist racist idiot, and are exactly why many scottish, Welsh and Irish people hate england. You racially abuse Scottish people with comments. And the Scottish, Welsh, and Irish assemblies are not racist they are natinal assemblies. Is the UK parliament racist for being a national parliament you utter moron. They do not have control over the right to war or the right to vast majorioty of taxes or immigration. You are a racist. You want to discriminate any celt from being PM. Yet did not mind English men, and English woman running the UK for last 60 years. There is no cohrency to you rviews, It is just Celtic people cannot run the UK but English people can. There is no way the union can continue with racist morons like you. It is why I am starting to sympathise with Celtic nationalism, pathetic people like you are dangerous. I will not resort your pathetic racial terms. All I know is that you are an ignorant moron. By the way the last leader of the Welsh nationalists was born in England. The assembly leader of the Welsh health service was Irish. Tens of Scottish MEPs were born in England or educated in England. But i suppose your ignorant claims to do pay attention to that. After since when did racists ever rely on facts. And we have an English queen. We will have the next two kings as English too. Why do you not see that as unfair on the Cetlic nations?
Now listen to this you idiot Westminister is the UK parliament not the English parlimanet, Celtic people have every right to be PM. If you want regional parliaments Labour offered them you that does not justify racial discrimination against celtic people running their own nations because the UK icludes Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland, and then fobbing off with what are not very powerful bodies.
Oh dear- Stupid European Socialist is at it again- cry racism- and there you go:argument won- in your mind anyway! I don't CARE what you say. To infer that Jocks, Taffs and Paddies are not racist is hilarious. I don't go around setting up 'settler watch'(scotland); i don't go around burning down Welsh peoples houses in England (ie:the sons of David in Wales- you a*se); and i don't go around blowing people up (NIreland). The result of the mess-instability in a bankrupt union- is all down to stupid 'socialists' like yourself engaging on 'empowering' the nations of the UK-except England! How democratic. You have little grasp of the argument at all, apart from slogans- learned from 'heroes' like Ken and Baldrick off Blackadder. I would expect you to be a member of DENSA. PS- i expect you'ld like to call all the people who have moved out of specific parts of leicester, bradford, and London 'racist'- idiots like you have ENCOURAGED racism. You are a good recruiting officer for the BNP. Congratulations.
simon you are utterly pathetic. If the best you can do is just put the word stupid in front of someone's name as an insult and claim that is a witty statment then I do seriously wonder about you mental age. Seriously.
A BNP candidate supported rape as shown http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7326987.stm
BNP leader denied the holocaust.
Then you claim your racism to welsh and irish and scottish people is justified because of the actions of the minority. Using the logic I would now be justified to hate all English people because of your racism.
You really are an idiot. You are typical of the low IQ abusive ignorant oafs who join the BNP.:
'stupid european socialist': i had no idea they let you use computers at Broadmoor? Try and throw the 'racist' tag around a little more if it makes you feel a little better. Moron.
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